From Reuters the latest IMF study, no not that one, a new one
"The dramatic deterioration in debt sustainability points to the need for debt relief on a scale that would need to go well beyond what has been under consideration to date - and what has been proposed by the ESM," the IMF said, referring to the European Stability Mechanism bailout fund.
The IMF study also appeared to challenge the assumption by some European officials that Greece will be able to meet some of its financing needs from the markets in 2018.
"Borrowing at anything but AAA rates in the near term will bring about an unsustainable debt dynamic for the next several decades," it said.
Note current credit ratings
S&P: CCC-
Moodys: Caa3
Fitch: CCC
[Translation of ratings: In default with little prospect for recovery]
So what they are saying is, even if Greece votes for the latest plan, after all the vileness on display in Brussels. they're fucked.
As the Guardian notes
The International Monetary Fund has warned that Greece will require far more generous debt relief than is currently on offer from its creditors, as MPs in Athens prepare for a crucial vote on Wednesday on a new bailout plan. An IMF report leaked to Reuters shows that Greece’s public debt is likely to peak at 200% of its national income within the next two years, with the risk that the actual outcome could be even worse.
and of course
The neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party quickly sought to capitalise on the popular anger that the deal is bound to unleash. “Golden Dawn will resist the new memorandum that the government of the left will sign with the complete support of New Democracy, To Potami and Pasok,” said the organisation’s leader Nikos Michaloliakos, referring to the opposition parties. “An avalanche of taxes is coming. New annihilating measures that will mainly affect the country’s youth, that will increase unemployment and hit farmers who are the soul of the nation, are coming. From every place in this land the battle will continue … so that the plans of foreign rule are not passed.”
So what is being done now is opening up Greece to capitalist vultures via privatization and holding €50 billion in assets ready for liquidation. So basically before things get even worse [a few months] to get any profit in the meantime, asset stripping will have to take place.
As for the latest program that involved some pretty vile statements during its negotiations/passage, well that aint going to work. Some of the neoliberal policies on the table may well help the collapse and even accelerate it.
Then we will be right on back in Brussels in a few months time negotiating how on earth we deal with a total disaster.
How is this worse than negotiating [not just kick them out] an exit from the Eurozone? Oh I know, some assets can be sold off to the lowest bidder, but will they actually have any value whatsoever in a few months time?
The new plan just piles on the misery, offers at best some short term relief before things get a whole lot worse. The other knock on effect is a serious dent in the ideals on which the European Union was founded, solidarity, not so much, we will hang you out to dry. It's not only a warning, but a promise.
BTW
Unsustainable debt dynamic = Economic collapse.
Then what?
As if this wasn't known before, the Telegraph acts all shocked by the news.
2:05 AM PT: The International Monetary Fund has set off a political earthquake in Europe, warning that Greece may need a full moratorium on debt payments for 30 years and perhaps even long-term subsidies to claw its way out of depression.
"The dramatic deterioration in debt sustainability points to the need for debt relief on a scale that would need to go well beyond what has been under consideration to date,” said the IMF in a confidential report.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/...
4:46 AM PT: You can follow the debate in the Greek Parliament here: It's getting very messy
http://www.theguardian.com/...
4:47 AM PT: spyros gkelis @northaura
Varoufakis now on Parliament: Everything depends on debt restructure; unfortunately this will be after new program's failure #mnimonio3
Something stinks here
So the technocrats proposed a plan they knew would fail, but hoped to get their hands on €50billion worth of assets before they force Greece out of the Euro
5:11 AM PT: .
IMF appears to be only one looking out for Greece's long-term future
In a short, sharp and merciless analysis of the bailout terms for Athens, the International Monetary Fund predicts we will all be back here again soon
The timing was impeccable. A day after Greece and the eurozone concluded bailout negotiations, but 24 hours before the hugely contentious deal had been voted on in Athens, the International Monetary Fund dropped a bombshell: the agreement won’t work.
In four crisp pages, the IMF’s updated debt sustainability analysis ripped to shreds the notion that Greece will be able to deliver on the promises it has been forced to make in order to keep its banks open and stay in the single currency.
http://www.theguardian.com/...
5:32 AM PT: .
Bingo. They knew all along, oh the stench
Germany believes extending maturities for Greek debt to 30 years or so is an option as long as it does not “significantly” reduce the value of the debt, Reuters is reporting.
German finance ministry spokesman Martin Jaeger said:
That is certainly an element that one can consider, but it will not be the solution if it leads to a significant reduction in the cash value (of the debt) as then we would in the end have nothing other than a debt haircut via the back door.
He confirmed that the IMF assessment of Greece - which suggested a 30-year grace period before it has to start paying off its debts - was known by EU leaders at the weekend’s summits.
The skeletons in the closet are on the move
http://www.theguardian.com/...
We sat through 2 weeks of utter lies.
Now all I need is for all those 'serious' people in my previous diaries to come back and explain to me [a dumb American redneck] how Europe works again
Worth a read
The Euro-Summit ‘Agreement’ on Greece – annotated by Yanis Varoufakis
Posted on July 15, 2015 by yanisv
The Euro Summit statement (or Terms of Greece’s Surrender – as it will go down in history) follows, annotated by yours truly. The original text is untouched with my notes confined to square brackets (and in red). Read and weep… [For a pdf copy click here.]
Euro Summit Statement Brussels, 12 July 2015
The Euro Summit stresses the crucial need to rebuild trust with the Greek authorities [i.e. the Greek government must introduce new stringent austerity directed at the weakest Greeks that have already suffered grossly] as a pre- requisite for a possible future agreement on a new ESM programme [i.e. for a new extend-and-pretend loan].
In this context, the ownership by the Greek authorities is key [i.e. the Syriza government must sign a declaration of having defected to the troika’s ‘logic’], and successful implementation should follow policy commitments.