Democratic Rep. Gwen Graham with some loyal supporters
Democratic Rep. Gwen Graham is likely to get screwed over in redistricting, as there's every reason to expect that Republicans will transmogrify Florida's already-red 2nd District into one that's all but unloseable for the GOP. For that reason, speculation has resurfaced that she might run for the Senate instead (just like another expected redistricting victim, Republican Rep. David Jolly), and
she isn't ruling it out. Graham says she's "not going to close any doors" but adds that she wants to "wait and see what happens" with the new lines.
If Graham does run this year, that would cause a serious headache for Democrats, who already are dealing with a rough primary between Reps. Alan Grayson and Patrick Murphy, the latter of whom was endorsed by the DSCC a while back. Graham could thread the needle here, though, as the only woman in the race, and the only candidate from the northern part of the state (Grayson is from the Orlando area and Murphy's district is in South Florida). She's also a prolific fundraiser and has a famous family name: Her father was Bob Graham, who served as both governor and senator and remains popular. He'd be an asset in any nomination fight.
But it certainly wouldn't be a sure thing for Graham, who'd be getting a late start if she waits until everything is finalized. The wiser play might be to wait until 2018, when the governorship will be open. She'd be a top contender for that post, or if Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson were to make a gubernatorial bid, she'd also be the number one recruit to fill his job. The state Supreme Court's deadline for the legislature to draw a new map is Sept. 25, but we could see further appeals, so it might be a while before we have clarity here.