For much of the past 20 years, I’ve worked closely with different discipline engineers, delivering all sorts of process and manufacturing plants. My job for the past few years has been to get as much engineering information that is available and consolidate this information into project construction, completions, commissioning & handover databases which are used to track & manage the building and start-up of process plants. After doing the same thing a number of times over with different software platforms in different industries, I have a good understanding on what information to ask for, where to go digging, to make sure what is being built is all captured, transparent and manageable in order to deliver a quality plant.
On the most recent project, I was involved in from relatively early stages of construction and the project was not necessarily headed in the right direction. The project estimated cost was in the tens of billions and although the basic set up of how it was going to be delivered was in place, there was a lot of work which needed to be done to get it on track. Without revealing which project or company it was, the single most important thing which management eventually recognized as critical to the overall project’s success, was embracing a systems completions approach.
As the plant design was replicated multiple times, by using a completions program which facilitated replication and implementation of lessons learned across multiple simultaneous projects, we went from running about 12 months over schedule on the first plant to running about 3-4 months ahead of schedule on the later plants.
One of Elon Musk’s statements which, many should know by now ought not be dismissed out of hand, really made me sit up and take notice. It’s been bugging the hell out of me and with the preamble out of the way, I’d like to explore it here :
“you don't just need one Gigafactory, you need like 200 Gigafactories, just for new car production.” Elon Musk
14:14 “You can basically make all electricity generation in the world renewable and primarily solar and then, going a little further if you wanted to transition all transport and all electricity generation and all heating to renewable you need approximately 2 billion Power Packs.
Now that may seem like an insane number and I'm very tempted to do the 'billion' thing… restrain my hand but, in order to... it's like, 2 billion Power Packs, is that a crazy number? Is that an impossible number? It is not, in fact the number of cars and trucks that we have on the road is approximately 2 billion and every 20 years approximately that gets refreshed because of a hundred million new cars and trucks made every year so the point I wanna make is that this is actually within the power of humanity to do we have done things like this before and so, it's not impossible, it is really something that we can do and, in fact, it's something that obviously we're starting to do with Gigafactory 1.
So the way we're approaching the Gigafactory is really like it's a product. So we're not really thinking about it in the traditional way that people think of as a factory, like a building with a bunch of off-the-shelf equipment in it. What we're really designing in the Gigafactory is a giant machine it's like a product of Tesla. We're making this really big product that doesn't happen to move, but it's really big and that's what we're doing, it's Gigafactory version 1.
And we're building that in Nevada right now and there will need to be many gigafactories in the future. I do wanna emphasize that this is not something that we think Tesla is gonna do alone. We think that there's gonna need to be many other companies building Gigafactory class operations of their own and we hope they do and the Tesla policy of open sourcing patents will continue for the Gigafactory and for the Power Pack and for all these other things. So we wanna show people most importantly that this is possible if you look at the- that's the future we could have where the curve slowly rolls over and goes to zero no incremental CO2 that's the future we need to have and that's something that - and the path that I've told you about, the solar panels and the batteries it's the only path that I know that can do this and I think it's something that we must do and we can do and that we will do ….
If we wanna make electric cars, we need enough batteries for the electric cars. And, so last year all lithium ion production combined was 30 gigawatt-hours approximately. That's nothing. Or, at least, it's nothing if you consider, like, if you wanna make half a million electric cars a year, that's how much you need. And there are 100 million new cars made every year, there are 2 billion gasoline or diesel cars on the road worldwide. So just do the basic math, you don't just need one Gigafactory, you need like 200 Gigafactories, just for new car production.
So... Is it possible to get 200 Gigafactories built fast?
Before I get too far into this and sound like too much of a smart ass, as Tesla have some of the world's most brilliant minds working there, I want to say that I’ve considered this and it is not the intent. I just want to share what I know, as the very last thing I want is 2017 rolling around and bunch of Murdoch trolls are high fiving each other as Gigafactory 1 start up is behind by a month or two. This comment from Musk helped me make up my mind to publish my thoughts…YouTube Video
19:30 - When you want to do something new, you have to apply the physics approach. Physics is really figuring out how to discover new things that are counter intuitive like Quantum mechanics… Also to really pay attention to negative feedback and solicit it, particularly from friends… Hardly anyone does that and it’s incredibly helpful…
Not to mention that, as Tesla is a public company very much in the spotlight, it needs to avoid things like this ever happening again :
Excerpt from the book : “The Company had decided to send a team of its youngest, most energetic engineers to Thailand to set up a battery factory. Tesla partnered with an enthusiastic although not totally capable manufacturing partner. The Tesla engineers had been told that they could fly over and manage the construction of a state of the art battery factory. Instead of a factory, they found a concrete slab with posts holding up a roof.’
Gigafactory One progress
One of the things that I really like about the Internet is the amount of detailed information that is out there. On any subject, someone, somewhere will have a more obsessive interest in whatever you may, progress of Tesla Gigafactory One is no exception as can be seen at this website : Tesla Gigafactory Timeline - Construction Permits
So that is the progress of the plant permitting up until the end of May. Next thing to consider is what it is they are planning on manufacturing, again there are excellent sources of information with photos of what Tesla’s battery packs look like, what makes up the Model S, as well as their timeline and process flow diagram. Inside the Battery Pack Tesla Reveals details about it's Battery Gigafactory
Rather than start from the beginning of the life cycle of the project (ie Feasibility Study, Front End Engineering & Design (Tesla Call this Initial Project Design), Contract negotiation/Procurement (Partner discussions?), Detailed Design – (Zoning & Design/Build) I’d like to pick things up from current progress as Tesla will well and truly have people with more than enough knowledge to have all the above well and truly covered. Note : Please remember this is all theoretical, I do not have any more information that what is available & linked to on the web. A LOT of artistic licence has been used below.
Theoretical Completions Systemization of Tesla Gigafactory 1 (GF001) construct, commission, turnover.
Package 001 – Buildings, Utilities, Infrastructure, Balance of Plant
System 001-001 – Civil
Subsystem 001-001-001 – Gigafactory Pad & Foundations
Subsystem 001-001-002 – Switchyard Pad & Foundations
Subsystem 001-001-003 – Administration, support buildings Pad & Foundations
Subsystem 001-001-004 – Tanks and Vessels Pad & Foundations
Subsystem 001-001-010 – Stormwater Pond & Containment Earthworks
Subsystem 001-001-050 – Temporary Trailer/buildings Pad
System 001-002 – Building & Structures
Subsystem 001-002-001 – Structural Steel – Gigafactory
Subsystem 001-002-002 – Cladding, Insulation – Gigafactory
Subsystem 001-002-003 – Roofing - Gigafactory
System 001-003 – Fabricated/Pre-Assembled Modules
System 001-004 – Compressed Air
System 001-005 – Potable Water
System 001-006 – Waste Treatment & Disposal
System 001-007 – Fire Detection, alarming and sprinkler system
System 001-008 – Earthing
System 001-009 – High Voltage Main Power
System 001-010 – Low Voltage Main Power
System 001-011 – ELV DC Power
System 001-012 – Solar Array & Inverters
System 001-013 – Battery banks & Uninterruptible Power Supplies
System 001-014 – Lighting & General Power Outlets
System 001-015 – Overall Control System
System 001-016 – Telecommunications, Network Backbone
System 001-017 – Stormwater Drains
System 001-018 – Site Security Monitoring, CCTV, PA system & evacuation system
Subsystem 001-018-001 – Main Gate CCTV
Subsystem 001-018-002 – Building Entrances and Foyer CCTV
Subsystem 001-018-003 – Perimeter Security CCTV
Subsystem 001-018-010 – Security Card system – Main building
Subsystem 001-018-020 – Intrusion Detection Perimeter Fence
Subsystem 001-018-021 – Intrusion Detection Main building infrared & Motion detection
Subsystem 001-018-030 – Site Public Announcement
System – External Perimeter coverage
Subsystem 001-018-040 – Site Evacuation Alarm System
System 001-050 – Temporary Installations
Subsystem 001-050-001 – Temporary buildings/Trailers
Subsystem 001-050-002 – Temporary electrical supply
Subsystem 001-050-003 - Temporary potable water
Subsystem 001-050-004 – Temporary Waste Treatment
System 001-060 – Roads
Subsystem 001-060-001 – Main Plant Access Road
Subsystem 001-060-002 – Gigafactory building Perimeter Road
Package 002 – Battery Plant - Materials & Assembly
System 002-010 – Raw Material inbound
Subsystem 002-010-001 – Aluminum material handling
Subsystem 002-010-002 – Separator Material Handling
Subsystem 002-010-003 – Copper Material Handling
Subsystem 002-010-004 – Raw Steel Material Handling
Subsystem 002-010-005 – Plastics Material Handling
Subsystem 002-010-006 – Adhesives Material Handling
Subsystem 002-010-006 – Miscellaneous Component Material Handling
System 002-020 – Cathode Manufacturing plant
Subsystem 002-020-001 – Aluminum Foil Plant
System 002-021 – Anode Manufacturing Plant
Subsystem 002-021-001 – Copper Foil Plant
System 002-022 – Separator Manufacturing Plant
System 002-023 – Electrolyte Plant
System 002-024 – Steel Plant
Subsystem 002-024-001 – Stamping Plant
Subsystem 002-024-002 – Sheet metal, Rolled Steel products plant
System 002-025 – Plastics Extrusion Plant
Subsystem 002-025-001 – Cell Block plastic extrusion line
System 002-026 – Adhesives Plant
System 002-027 – Paint Shop & Coatings plant
System 002-028 – Battery Cooling System plant
Subsystem 002-028-001 – Copper Tubing assembly
Subsystem 002-028-002 – Plastic Piping assembly
Subsystem 002-028-003 – Cooling system monitoring & Control assembly
System 002-030 – Component Assembly plant
Subsystem 002-030-001 – Winding Assembly
Subsystem 002-030-002 – Can & Cap Assembly
Subsystem 002-030-003 – Cell Assembly Plant
System 002-050 – Module Assembly Plant
Subsystem 002-050-001 – Multi-Cell packaging line
Subsystem 002-050-002 – Cooling system assembly line
Subsystem 002-050-003 – Conductive Plate Assembly line
Subsystem 002-050-004 – Cell Protective Fuse spot welding line
Subsystem 002-050-005 – Cell block plastics encapsulation
System 002-060 – Pack Assembly Plant
Subsystem 002-060-001 – Cell Block assembly line
Subsystem 002-060-002 – Bus Bar Assembly line
Subsystem 002-060-003 – Protection Systems Assembly line
Subsystem 002-060-004 – Cooling Systems Assembly line
Subsystem 002-060-005 – Fire/Explosion/Tamper proof titanium cover line
System 002-070 – Testing, Quality Assurance
Subsystem 002-070-001 – Battery charge/discharge test facility
Subsystem 002-070-002 – Cooling System test facility
Subsystem 002-070-003 – Destructive testing, compliance facility
System 002-080 – Dispatch, packaging Plant
Package 003 – Powerpack/Powerwall Plant (no break out here as hopefully the above gives enough indication of how a systems completions approach would work for Tesla)
Package 004 – Model S Plant (as above)
Having put together the theoretical hierarchy of deliverable systems which make up the whole, the next thing is to break these systems down to their individual components. Each Component will be a particular type eg - Motor, control panel, Adhesives applicator robot, agitator, air conditioner, structural foundation, Piling, Cable etc And discipline – Robotics, Mechanical, Piping, Electrical, Instrumentation, telecom, Civil.
Construction verification Once the component is defined and allocated to a system/subsystem, it becomes a matter then of what verification activities need to be allocated so that true progress is monitored and quality control is maintained at all stages of the installation. It is also then known when each system is complete and can move into the next stage alternatively, those that are falling behind and appropriate resources assigned to expedite their completion. For instance during construction for the main Gigafactory pad & foundations subsystem 001-001-001, an asset within this system may be defined as TESGF001-PADSW-001 – Tesla Gigafactory 001 – Main Pad Southwest grid
Verification activities/checksheets may be : Clearing & Grubbing Earthworks Piling Piling Cap Structural Foundations & Aprons Final Survey & GIS co-ordinate records Each of the above would have applicable quality and completions steps needed to be completed to verify that entire activity is satisfactorily complete – ie a) record concrete mix & confirm within design specification b) record concrete hardness test results are satisfactory c) record piling frame type installed and is within design parameters d) record cathodic protection installed where detailed
Pre-commissioning
When we get into the more complicated automated areas such as an adhesive line, the components to be installed and verified will be things like Cables for power, hydraulic piping systems with pumps, mixers & heaters to pump/distribute the adhesives, robotics to apply the adhesives, robotic stations with inductive switches, clamps, solenoids, light curtains to immediately stop the robot to prevent it from picking up the operator instead of the part etc. This equipment will not only have multiple verification activities at the construction stage – ie a cable might have a cable pull sheet, cable termination verification sheet & a cable test sheet – but once fully assembled, this type of equipment will need to go through live tests – pre-commissioning – ie. does the clamp operate from the correct control system signal, are the robot’s clamps, glue nozzles, spot welder working correctly and is it moving to the correct location before performing an action.
Sequence/process Commissioning
Once the individual parts are verified, the next stage is to make it all work together – ie does the robot sequence correctly with the clamps, or does it try to place or remove a part with the clamp closed.
Assurance stages
At each stage of the Gigafactory project, certain over-arching criteria must be met. For instance when the design team have completed the engineering for the Civil or structures, an appropriately qualified engineer will generally need to sign of the entirety of that particular systems design as to all codes & standards, all calculations have been checked & double checked. For the sake of the Gigafactory this would be the 1G stage - Engineering assurance, and is applicable for each system. Likewise the 2G stage is when construction of a particular system has been complete - this gets signed by the responsible construction partner. 3G would be pre-start up checks complete. - the pre-commissioning engineer in association with operations sign this document 4G would be safety checks prior to overall plant start up - the commissioning manager, process engineer & operations would sign this document 5G would be performance and throughput checks & handover of day to day operations - main project commissioning engineer and principal plant operations manager of the entire facility sign this 6G is all systems go, maximum velocity, plant & all documentation is handed over to the production team and everyone associated with Gigafactory EPCM activities are complete. The neat thing about this is that if he wanted to, Elon would be able to be completely transparent about the Gigafactory progress - ie. Yes, we have completed 3G on the material handling plants and are moving in to process & sequence commissioning, we are 75% through 2G phase of construction on the assembly lines, 40% through completing 2G on the dispatch plant. If I see enough interest to write it, In Building 200 Gigafactories Part 3 will talk about the next few stages in the completions system process : Loop Tests Functional Test Procedures Commissioning Procedures Assurance Certification Document Control Technical Query Management of Change Site Instructions Software Change Requests Completions and Turnover Dossiers The main reason that this has been bugging me and I wanted to put this up somewhere in the off chance that someone associated with Tesla may take a few minutes to consider it (Although, more likely, I do recognize this diary may not get any eyeballs at all), is that I know of a number of current multi-billion dollar projects where this type of ground work has not been properly done during the engineering/construction phase. That they are at risk of finding themselves in the situation where the plant is essentially constructed, but the assurances are missing that it is built within specification and a sequenced start up program with appropriate procedures is not in place. This will lead to a substandard outcome with unnecessary production delays and cost over-runs. And I really don’t want that to be the Tesla Gigafactory One story as it will be much harder to convince investors & the public that Gigafactory 2, let alone 200, is bankable and should be built.
So back to the original question - Is it possible to get 200 Gigafactories built fast?
One of the really great things about Musk is he wants to see this happen quickly and in order to do so is putting this into practice - others don’t even have to reverse engineer the core technology because Musk has a policy of open sourcing Tesla patents. If 200 Gigafactories are to be built, an approach to get the first one built, tracking all the while progress of completion of the various processes that go into a Gigafactory construction through to operations, IMO, is not a bad idea. Once they have the Gigafactory design/construct/commission template they know works, this information is available then to replicate. And the great thing about it is as engineering changes required are identified, improvements to materials & machinery, software/programming upgrades are coded, updates to drawings are made, it can all be integrated into one place, accessible to any future Gigafactories that are planned or in the process of being built. Implementation of lessons learned, improvements in schedule for every subsequent Gigafactory, a given. This should help to secure the confidence of investors and reduces the possibility that the naysayers, the negative nellies will have anything to put on Fox News to detract from the end goal of proving it is possible to build a better future, much faster and much cheaper than anyone thought possible. Not to mention accelerating the cost curve reductions realized in battery storage technologies by reducing the Capex for every subsequent Gigafactory from GF002 to GF200. So yes, I think it's possible and my money is on Musk to already be thinking along these lines on how to build more than one Gigafactory.
Elon Musk Interview at MIT. Manufacturing – building a machine to make a machine – more smart people should be getting into manufacturing – it’s kind of fun.