Remember when we had plenty of choices?
Unlike many here at Daily Kos, I have not settled on a preferred candidate in the 2016 primary. Despite what may be clear choices between the current contenders, I'm rather underwhelmed by the Democratic field as it stands now, and am disappointed that it does not reflect the increasing diversity and youth of both the Democratic Party and the progressive movement at large. Not fielding a single competitive Democratic candidate that is under 65 or a person of color is an embarrassment, and activists should be demanding more.
When Newt Gingrich says the current Republican field makes the Democratic field look like a "gerontocracy", I credit him with a good zinger, because he's not wrong. The average age of the two frontrunners is roughly 70. Hillary Clinton will be 69 on election day in 2016, and Bernie Sanders 75. Jim Webb will be 70. Lincoln Chafee, barely an asterisk in this contest, will be in his mid-60s as well. Only Martin O'Malley, currently 51, breaks the mold, and the man has no oxygen as yet in this race.
The Democratics frontrunners are currently from a generation previous to that of the current president, each of retirement age, even as Democrats skew younger, and voters under 45 voted overwhelmingly Democratic in both Obama elections. Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and JFK were all in their mid-40s when elected president. Jimmy Carter was 52. FDR was 51. Lyndon Johnson assumed the presidency at 55. In fact, the Democratic Party has not successfully elected a new president over the age of 60 since before the Civil War. It has simply not happened in the modern era.
Moreover, the present primary field is an exclusively white one despite a Democratic Party that is composed of more than 40% people of color. In 2012, nearly 3 in 5 Democratic voters were women, yet there's only one woman in the field. Each current candidate is also from the Northeast of the country, representing a small cluster of states from Vermont to Virginia. This despite the fact, for example, that Democrats have seen their greatest successes in the GOP waves of 2010 and 2014 from their West Coast firewall, from states like California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada and (to a large extent) Colorado.
This homogeneity is disappointing. It's frankly unacceptable, and it makes the Party extremely vulnerable at a time when it desperately needs a reboot.
If folks don't see this as a problem, I think they should. Democrats have been most successful in presidential politics with young, upstart candidates who have related to and energized the young, and have helped build movements, not based on extensive resumes and perceived "electability", but based on energy, vision, and young grassroots armies that ultimately recruited and mobilized activists, and subsequently helped regional and downticket races. Carter, Clinton and Obama were relative unknowns who caught fire. On the other hand, our last "safe" and "electable" candidate, age 60+, chosen based on resume and a cautious, poll-tested platform? John Kerry. And we know how that went.
Whenever Markos Moulitsas reflects on the Howard Dean burnout of 2004 as reason to be skeptical of Bernie Sanders' chances this cycle, I'm always curious about the specific lessons he learned from that race. I was also active among Dean/Clark advocates here on Daily Kos at that time as well, and remember the disappointment of that collapse, even though the 50-state infrastructure Dean put in place, and the passion he inspired, was as responsible as anything else for the resounding Democratic victories of 2006 and 2008.
Like Markos, however, I'm skeptical of Bernie's chances, because of his age, his lack of experience representing urban populations and people of color, and his lack of foreign policy chops in a time of increasing global instability. While his policy positions may largely align with my own, I think a 75 year old socialist with a laser focus on domestic policy will be a tough sell in a general election, especially if things were to degrade in the Middle East in the next year or so.
But I'm also strongly skeptical of Hillary Clinton's chances. Frankly, she seems like the right candidate at the wrong time – a candidate better built for 10 or 20 years ago. When I reflect on the lessons of 2004, those don't thrown me into Clinton's arms like they do Markos. What I see in Clinton is a candidate very much like John Kerry – late to the game, cautious, relying heavily on symbolism and an aura of electability, failing to excite large portions of the Democratic base, or excite new voters. Her strength, like Kerry, is perceived to be foreign policy, but the GOP is strategically excellent at neutralizing this supposed advantage through faux scandals like Benghazi, State Dept email security lapses, etc. The GOP is already testing various narratives to blame the creation of ISIS on her. If you think this is preposterous, well, it certainly is, but then recall how effective the repulsive swift boating strategy was for low information voters. Once a couple of billion dollars in attack ads hit her, and the GOP places a Susana Martinez or Carly Fiorina on their ticket to neutralize the symbolism of Clinton breaking the glass ceiling, I suspect she will limp into the November contest like Kerry before her: bruised, little-loved, vulnerable.
Some Clinton supporters may disagree, but I think most progressives do acknowledge that the current Democratic primary field lacks the diversity and youth of the GOP field largely due to dynastic politics and the presence of Clinton in the race. Because of how 2008 played out, younger professional politicians feel she is owed this final opportunity, and worry that "jumping ahead in line" could severely damage their own political futures.
But what if that was not the case? What if neither Hillary Clinton nor Bernie Sanders were in the race? What if the majority of candidates were between 40 and 60, like the Republican field? Is the Democratic bench really as weak and the GOP bench really as deep as pundits suggest? Or is the current field just the network effect of one candidate's outsized presence in the race?
Can we imagine a field of 17 Democrats every bit as diverse in age, ethnicity and experience as the GOP field at present? I think we can, and I give it a go just beyond the orange cloud of unknowing below.
Now some will find this a futile exercise. "You go to war with the army you have, not the one you wish you had." But consider it not just an exercise in fantasy baseball or alternative history, but a survey of the Party's political inventory. Is it true that Democrats really have a "weak bench"? What does the Democratic Party's depth chart really look like? If Hillary were to succumb to a bad health episode in a very strenuous race, or if new scandals overtake her and seriously jeopardize her standing, who might Democrats turn to? Who might they turn to next if she, despite early polling strength, loses next November?
The following is just one of many possible rosters. Think of the recent Fox debate format: a stage of ten varsity aspirants, and another JV squad of seven in the pipeline. When considering who might be qualified to be president, it's worth reflecting on the current GOP field. Three of the top five frontrunners (Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina) have never successfully been elected to any state or federal office. Three of the remaining top ten (Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul) are US Senators who have yet to complete their first term in office. Beyond Bush and Kasich, the political experience of their viable candidates is rather thin. Keep that in mind when assessing the viability of the following.
One more thing. Just for the challenge, I'm leaving out the one name that is sure to be on everyone's mind, Elizabeth Warren. You all know who she is, she says she has no interest in running, and she'll be in her late 60s in fall of 2016. And while it's tempting to airdrop in a legacy name like Jerry Brown for a one-term presidential transition proposal, the four-term Governor is nearing 80 at this point! Let's think of some other names.
MAIN STAGE (alphabetically by surname)
Xavier Becerra, 57, US Congressman
22 years in Congress. Currently Chairman of the House Democratic Caucus and previous head of the Hispanic Caucus. A reliable progressive and one of the leaders on immigration reform. Worked for both the California DOJ and the State Assembly. Represents arguably the most urban district in California, downtown Los Angeles.
Cory Booker, 46, US Senator, New Jersey
Two-term mayor of New Jersey's largest city, and second-largest city in NYC Metro. Junior Senator from New Jersey. Rhodes scholar, dynamic speaker, media savvy. More ties to finance than some progressives would like, and centrist on national security, but very socially liberal.
Mark Dayton, 68, Governor, Minnesota
Former US Senator, voted against the Iraq War. Current governor of Minnesota, won in difficult GOP wave of 2010. Legalized same-sex marriage in the state. Presided over Minnesota's "economic miracle". Perfect contrast to Wisconsin's Scott Walker.
Eric Garcetti, 44, Mayor of Los Angeles
Current Mayor of Los Angeles, most ethnically diverse US city, and second-most populous (LA county, 10M). Former LA City Council head. Three months older than Rubio. Bilingual, Mexican-American on father's side, Jewish through mother. Rhodes scholar, educated at Oxford and London School of Economics. Lived in Southeast Asia and Africa. Active in Naval Reserves, former professor of international affairs, Chair of Democratic Municipal Officials. Proposed and signed into law LA's $15 minimum wage increase.
Kirsten Gillibrand, 48, US Senator, New York
Two term junior US Senator to New York, former US Congresswoman. Heir to Hillary Clinton's seat, and much of her policy priorities. Dynamic fundraiser, scrappy fighter. Increasing profile on Armed Services committee for her crusade against sexual abuse in the military, helped lead repeal of DADT. Presentation sometimes reads younger than her resume indicates, but she's probably the easiest 'plug-and-play' substitute for Clinton. 20 years younger, w/o scandal, on the rise.
Christine Gregoire, 68, former Governor, Washington State
Two term Governor and three term Attorney General of Washington State. Similar profile to Jennifer Granholm, but Granholm's Canadian birthplace blocks a White House bid. Her gubernatorial terms were without significant controversy, but perhaps also undistinguished. Was out in front of others on supporting gay marriage in the state.
Amy Klobuchar, 55, US Senator, Minnesota
Former prosecutor, now two-term US Senator from Minnesota. Floated as a future US Supreme Court justice pick. Generally a consistent progressive, she was a strong critic of Iraq War, a fair trade advocate, and favors expanding Social Security the ACA to cover more US citizens. Rather regressive on copyright and online sharing.
Jack Reed, 65, US Senator, Rhode Island
Four term Senator for Rhode Island, and a progressive lion in the US Senate. Perennially floated as both a Vice Presidential pick and a future Secretary of Defense, Reed is arguably the Democratic Party's strongest foreign policy and security expert. He voted against the Iraq War and is a reliable liberal vote on virtually all progressive issues.
Ken Salazar, 60, former US Senator
Colorado's first Mexican-American US Senator and Attorney General. Served as Secretary of the Interior in Obama Administration. Currently working in field of international law. Centrist record, has taken positions that earned criticism from progressives, but a debate stage needs some moderates, and Salazar hails from a critical swing state, esp. in a cycle where Michael Bennet is vulnerable, he puts no seats at risk.
Eric Schmidt, 60, executive chairman, Google
Former head of Sun, Novell and Google. Billionaire with close ties to Obama and Clinton, and deep relationships with most Western heads of state. Compares favorably to GOP's Trump or Fiorina. Member of Obama's transition team, and floated as Secretary of Commerce. Strong environmentalist and solid on social issues, but neoliberal leanings and privacy concerns might challenge progressive sympathies.
SECOND STAGE (alphabetically by surname)
Kate Brown, 55, Governor, Oregon
Two time Oregon Secretary of State, former majority leader for the State Senate and current Governor. Openly bisexual, she has been a champion of LGBT issues in Oregon. Possessing a degree in environmental law, she is also strong on climate change. Passed the most progressive motor voter electoral reform law in the country.
Steve Bullock, 49, Governor, Montana
Former Attorney General of Montana and current Governor of the state. Strong conservationist and has a good record at fighting anti-competitive corporate mergers. Successfully challenged Citizens United in the Montana Supreme Court, but decision was overturned at US Supreme Court on a 5-4 vote.
Julian Castro, 40, US HUD Secretary
Three term Mayor of San Antonio and current Secretary of Housing & Urban Development in Obama's Cabinet. Like Obama, delivered Keynote Address at Dem National Convention in 2012. Close with the Clintons, he's rumored to be on a VP shortlist for 2016.
Kamala Harris, 50, California Attorney General
Former DA of San Francisco, and two term Attorney General of California, currently running to replace Barbara Boxer in the US Senate. Both African-American and Asian-American, both a first for California AG. Advocate for comprehensive immigration perform. Tough against the banks during the subprime mortgage crisis, she introduced and saw passage of California Homeowner's Bill of Rights.
Donna Edwards, 57, US Congresswoman, US Senate candidate
Four term US Congresswoman from Maryland, currently running for US Senate to replace Barbara Mikulski. Formerly executive director of the National Network to End Domestic Violence, she worked to successfully pass the 1994 Violence Against Women Act. Rising star in progressive circles, likely to be a powerhouse in coming years.
Catherine Cortez Masto, 51, for Nevada Attorney General, US Senate candidate
Two term Nevada Attorney General, vice chancellor for Nevada's system of colleges and universities, former criminal prosecutor for the US Attorney's Office in DC. Investigated shady bank lending practices while state AG. Currently running for Harry Reid's Senate seat, and a serious up-and-comer if elected.
Denis McDonough, 45, White House Chief of Staff
Current White House Chief of Staff, foreign policy expert with extensive travels in Latin America. Former National Security Council chief of staff. Was senior foreign policy advisor to Tom Daschle when he was minority leader. A key part of the administration team that secured capture of Osama Bin Laden. Gets high marks for working across party lines.
So what do folks think? That's 17 Dems that look a lot more diverse and experienced than the current crop of GOP recruits. 7 women, 7 people of color. Looks a lot more like the Democratic Party itself, does it not?
Do Democrats have a stronger bench than pundits suggest? And when will we get to see it in competitive presidential election?