I’m concerned about the shallowness of the discussion about the Iran Nuclear deal. I’d like to address three components of this decision. The first is that no better deal is available. The second asks the question of why we would refuse the deal. The third question is what happens on Day 2 of an Iran War.
One strategy that I keep hearing about is that we can still get a better deal. Sorry, but that ship has sailed. The Ambassadors of the P5+1 countries were in Washington recently to tell Congress that if the US backs out of the deal, the sanctions will collapse. Switzerland has removed its sanctions. Frenchmen are signing contracts in Tehran. Sanctions from the US only cannot be effective against Iran, as they do little business with us and have easy replacements for our goods. Sorry, but there will be no more sanctions, and a better deal is not possible.
OK, it’s this deal or nothing. IF the US does not approve the deal, we go back to Square 1 - the sanctions end and Iran is two months from a nuclear weapon. How is that possibly a win? We give up everything we gained by sanctions, and Iran loses nothing.
Before Iran gets any relief from sanctions, it must eliminate 98% of its stock of 20% uranium. It currently has enough to make 10 bombs, while after, it will not have enough to make 1. Iran must store all of its advanced centrifuges, and remove 75% of their existing ones. It must also modify the heavy water reactors so they cannot produce plutonium. So before this deal, they have enough uranium for 10 bombs and after, they don’t have enough for one, extending the breakout time from the current estimate of two months to over a year.
It is possible that Iran will simply live up to the deal. After all, the CIA states that Iran stopped their nuclear weapons program (not their entire nuclear program) in 2003. What if they are right? If so, Iran really isn’t giving up much, and we’ve been making a mountain out of a molehill.
But what if Iran doesn’t live up to the deal and attempts to build a nuclear weapon? We still have the options of living with a nuclear Iran or going to war, just as we do today.
Many “experts” talk about surgical strikes as if there would be a single attack with no repercussions. In reality, the elimination of the Iran nuclear weapons program would take extended bombing and would have considerable repercussions.
The first attacks will be to take out defensive weapons and command and control. The Iranian Air Force, with up to 400 fighters, would have to be taken off the field, as well as their surface-to-air missile installations. There are 18 known nuclear facilities, and some, like Fordow, will take multiple strikes in the same location from B2’s to achieve their goals. One proposed target list listed 400 targets.
Keep in mind that Iran has perceived that they are under an airstrike threat for many years because their arch-enemy, Israel, has been threatening exactly that. The effectiveness of their missile air defense is questionable, but could be formidable if upgrades to the S-300 systems have been delivered, created locally, or bought from other users, as some report. If they have a system with S-300 performance, there will be heavy losses to US aircraft.
Let’s assume that the attack goes well. What can we expect Iran to do?
First they will close the Straights of Hormuz. 20% of the world’s oil passes though the Straights, and Iran has thousands of cruise missiles to use, including modern supersonic missiles from China and Russia. They have large fleets of small boats that operate as cruise missile launch pads, and they have sufficient range to hit any target in the Arabian Sea from land, including the US carriers that will be providing the majority of the strike force. It is assumed that Iran will put a swarm of boats into action and fire cruise missiles when they are very close to the target. It is possible that they will sink all of the of the US carriers in the Arabian Sea.
Hezbollah, the terrorist organization in Lebanon, is funded by Iran and claims to have 100,000 missiles pointed at Israel. Many feel that they will fire these missiles as fast as they can, trying to overload the Iron Dome system.
Iran also has a very substantial number of surface-to-surface missiles. Most are short range and have limited accuracy, but they have some accurate missiles that can reach Israel. These will be fired at Israel and US forces in the region, as well as Sunni nations and their oil assets.
We should also expect various types of blowback in any Shia region, as Iran is the most powerful Shia nation and it provides aid for many groups in many nations.
So we have three options; sign this deal, put up with a nuclear bomb in Iran, or attack Iran. This is a no-brainer. We can’t get a better deal, Iran will roll back its nuclear program significantly before it gets any sanctions relief – and we can always go to war if we just have to.