So, if you are one of those that are feelin' the bern, don't get your hopes up. This is a couple of statistic nerds condescendingly explaining what they think are reality based numbers, to an emotionally motivated crowd.
This is how Bernie Sanders can win -chat starts out with an acknowledgement of criticism from Bernie fans.
It starts with:
We try to say something nice about #feelthebern’s quest for the Democratic nomination.
And end with:
hjenten-heynaw (Harry Enten)l: OK, the Bernie people have gotten to me. The Clinton emails seem slightly more likely to take down Clinton than they did a few weeks ago, so I’m going to double Sanders’s chances to 2 percent.
natesilver: I’m at 5 percent.
You could see the positive, in that Harry Enten's chances for Bernie wining have increased 100%, but it's just showing 538's condescending attitude towards Berie fans. I'm not going to say that their analysis is wrong, but they were dishonest in that they say that they were trying to be nice.
So in order to deconstruct the "inevitable" advantage of the HRC, they look at the superimposed layers of the primary campaign and remove two of the most important fundamentals - Hillary is the most experienced campaigner and she has a top notch staff.
It's almost like they want to piss Bernie supporters off.
My models have Bernie at about 13% of winning the nomination now, but things can change. Who's chances are better? Bernie winning the nomination or the Cubs winning the World Series?