Perry Bacon Jr:
[Speaker john] Boehner is in some ways the first and only victim of the failure of the Republican Party to achieve its policy goals in the Obama era. Party activists and some House members have chosen to pin the blame primarily on Boehner for the GOP's inability to stop Obama, who over the last year has cemented a legacy of pushing America left on a number of issues.
This is no doubt unfair to Boehner. Chief Justice John Roberts, a Republican Supreme Court appointee, twice opted against striking down Obamacare. Another Republican justice, Anthony Kennedy, cast the deciding vote making gay marriage a constitutional right. American voters reelected Obama, a liberal president who is very unlikely to defund Planned Parenthood and reached a nuclear agreement with Iran.
But conservatives can't fire Kennedy, Obama or Roberts. So they chucked aside Boehner instead.
Politico:
With their top object of scorn, John Boehner, about to leave the scene, conservatives are already training their ire across the Capitol on Mitch McConnell.
Boehner's departure will leave the Senate majority leader with two unenviable roles: He'll be the sole Republican leader with direct experience with how to get Washington out of a jam. And the Kentucky Republican will soon inherit the bright red target for conservative outrage that Boehner sported for so long.
Matthew Dickinson:
Half a century ago, when "all politics was local," to borrow the aphorism made famous by former House Speaker Tip O'Neill, and when the two political parties shared overlapping ideologies, the tension between serving the interests of the House's majority party and serving the House's interests as a governing institution was far less pronounced. It was easier for a speaker like O'Neill, or the legendary Sam Rayburn, to pursue a legislative agenda that drew bipartisan support.
Alas, those days are long gone. Today's speaker often finds that the interests of more ideologically-extreme party members clashes with a desire to actually govern by finding common ground with moderates and even members of the opposing party. In the short run, to avoid Boehner's fate, his successor may be willing to work more closely with conservatives to pursue their legislative objectives. But if that precipitates a government shutdown, the new speaker runs the risk of damaging the party's brand name and its electoral fortunes.
More politics and policy below the fold,
Rep. Luis Gutiérrez (D-IL):
Despite Senate passage of an immigration reform bill last Congress, a small group of Republicans who oppose immigration were able to hold the rest of the House -- and the country -- hostage and prevent a House vote on immigration reform. There were sufficient House votes to get a bill to the President’s desk for signature, but they literally threatened Boehner's job if he called the vote. With Speaker Boehner stepping down and his job no longer on the line, there is no reason not to have a vote. He should call a vote on immigration reform, and I think in my heart that Speaker Boehner would stand with us, with his country, and with the immigrant and Latino community. Speaker Boehner now has the opportunity to respond to the Pope’s moral call and rise above the racism and the xenophobia that is gripping the Republican Party and call the vote.
Philip Bump:
Sorry, conservatives. John Boehner’s scalp won’t cure what ails you.
There are two bigger problems. First, that contingent doesn't have the votes to elect someone else. It didn't at the outset of the 113th Congress, when Boehner faced unusual but still limited opposition in his reelection bid as speaker. It didn't at the beginning of this Congress either, when 25 members voted against him — just 10 percent of the caucus. More recently, about 30-35 members have joined in the effort to oust Boehner — enough to hold up the budget process, but not to be the driving force in the election of a speaker.
There still almost certainly aren't enough votes to pick an outsider to replace Boehner, meaning that the problem might fade a bit, but it's unlikely to go away. As our Chris Cillizza noted, a party that wants to elect Donald Trump isn't going to be thrilled at electing Kevin McCarthy.
And second: The problem was never really Boehner. As New York's Jonathan Chait points out and that first Fox poll result shows, the frustration is that House Republicans can't beat Obama. The conservative caucus wants to defund Obamacare, for example, which has nothing to do with Boehner or McConnell's ability to move their base. The compromises on Obamacare have been between reality and fantasy.
John Avlon:
“I consider this a victory for the crazies,” said one Republican congressman who attended the meeting in which Speaker John Boehner shocked the political world by announcing his resignation.
Boehner, the consummate congressional dealmaker, faced another looming government shutdown. His abrupt decision to resign at the end of October is a sign that there are no more deals to be made with the conservative Kamikaze caucus.
The fundamentalist crew that Boehner-allied Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes has called “lemmings with suicide vests” and “right-wing Marxists” has been preparing to take the country to the brink of shutdown and default again this fall over their demand to defund Planned Parenthood and refusal to raise the debt ceiling.
John Hudak:
What will happen next is quite interesting. First, the House needs to elect a new Speaker. This will be the first time in over a quarter century that the House will choose a new chief mid-Congress. Many believe House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy is the favorite to succeed to the speakership. However, the wrangling for Congress’ top job may not be the biggest story—or even the biggest fight.
The House majority leadership is sizable: beneath the Speaker serves the Majority Leader; Majority Whip; Republican Conference Chair, Vice-Chair, and Secretary; and Policy Committee Chair. This excludes the head of the National Republican Congressional Committee, Deputy Whips, committee chairs, and a host of others in formal and informal roles that help lead the GOP’s 247 members.
An ideal, orderly next step would be for everyone to move up one rung in the leadership ladder, and select a new member to the most junior member of leadership. The ideal and the real, however, rarely line up. Leadership fights are bruising and territorial. Those challenges are exacerbated by a party that is fractured and divisive. Conservative members of the House GOP who helped oust Boehner will battle mainstream Republicans and (especially) Boehner loyalists. The result: tremendous challenges in restructuring the leadership in a smooth fashion.
Sarah Binder:
The surprise news that Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) will resign the speakership in October heralds the close of a tumultuous period in House leadership — and the opening of a new period likely to prove just as tumultuous. A large, divided Republican conference — no matter who leads it next — will find that it has no greater ability to rein in the power and size of government.
Why are the prospects for change so slim? And what are the implications for Congress this fall?