Who will decide the next election? Who will choose the next occupant of the White House?
Well, that's easy. John Dilato will decide the next election.
Now before y'all start "Googling" John Dilato, know that I made the name up just now. "John Dilato" is the name I'm giving the voter I cold-called back in 2012. Back in October 2012, I volunteered with the Obama Re-Election campaign. I knocked on doors. I cold-called voters during weekends. I did my good citizen duties.
And during one Saturday I cold-called John Dilato. After I finished the conversation, I realized that Dilato would be the guy deciding the 2012 election.
One Saturday afternoon I was calling a bunch of Democratic voters and reminding them about when early voting started. I got a bunch of answering machines mostly, some voters who said they were planning on voting by mail, and more than a few "Yes, we know when early voting starts. Please stop calling."
Despite the fact that most voters were not home (Democratic voters tend to work on the weekends) I did get a few answers. Maybe 1 out of fifty calls yielded a human voice on the other end. "Hello?"
"Oh, Hello!" I said, in my most friendly voice, "This is Aleria Katz from the President Obama re-election campaign. May I speak to John Dilato Sr. please?"
"Yeah, that's my dad. He's not here right now."
"Okay," I said. There were two "John Dilato"'s listed under the household I was calling. "Are you John Dilato?"
"Yeah."
"And are you a registered voter?"
"Yeah."
"Do you mind if I ask you a few questions?"
"I guess."
"May I ask whom you will be planning on voting for in November?"
"Um... I dunno. Obama?"
Even now I can still hear that rising, questioning inflection in his voice. "I dunno. Obama?" I immediately went into campaign mode. Quick! An undecided voter with soft Democratic leanings! Get him more firmly on our side immediately!
"Fantastic!" I said, "I support Obama too! I'm spending my Saturdays campaigning for him because he speaks to me and to all American voters because...." etc. etc. I spoke about Obama's views on economics, immigration, foreign policies and even threw in some personal anecdotes to flavor the spiel. There was silence on the other end of the line while I gabbed. I could practically hear Dilato's eyes glaze over through the phone line.
"So, if you had to rate your current presidential preference," I asked, "Would it be 1: I really like Obama!, 2: I guess I like Obama, 3: I really don't know, 4: I guess I support the Republican candidate, 5: I really like the Republican candidate." We weren't allowed to say Mitt Romney's name. Nothing resembling free advertising for Romney.
"Two, probably."
"Okay," I said. Whatever. There was no real difference between an enthusiastic vote for Obama and a desultory vote for Obama. They were both votes! "Well, early voting will go on through next week! Do you plan to vote early?"
"Um.... I guess," Dilato said, "My dad said he was gonna vote tomorrow. He said he'd drive me."
"Alright!" I said, writing a note by his name to call the voter again in two days to make sure that he had voted. "Thanks so much for talking to me! Have a wonderful day."
"Yeah, you too." Click.
During this election season I realize that back in 2012 I was talking to the deciding voter, or certainly a prime representative of the deciding voter group. John Dilato probably did not think about the election. He did not participate in furious discussions about whether Hillary Clinton was jeopardizing her campaign by ignoring the media or whether Bernie Sanders was genuinely electable in a national contest. John Dilato lived his life without furious policy discussions. Voting was, at best, a bother for him. Something that his dad reminded him to do in between asking him about jobs or college applications (Dilato had sounded young. . . I guesstimated his age at around 22 or so).
Dilato didn't have time for the news, and any time he did manage to glance at a headline he saw Obama's name more often than not. So his mind instinctively went for Obama when forced to think about the election. It was instinct, a learned behavior rather than a rational decision based on knowledge of policy decisions.
John Dilato, and voters like him, vote based on instinct. . . . . and unfortunately for the Democrats this year the GOP has been soaking up most of the ink. When Dilato looks at a headline, it is more likely going to be Trump's name than Clinton or Sanders. I guarantee that when I start cold-calling for the Democrats next year (I'm a Clinton fan but I'll volunteer for Bernie if he gets the nom. I just want a Democrat in the White House next year.) . . . . . I will get "I dunno... Trump?" when I call Dilato. I already anticipate the conversation.
"Why are you supporting Trump?"
"I dunno. He's rich and he knows what he's doing. Like, he knows how business works so he can get stuff done."
"Well, he says that but actually Trump has four bankruptcies, has been constantly bailed out with taxpayer money, and has often been implicated in scams including the Trump University scam." etc. etc. I reel off the facts. Dilato's eyes glaze over almost audibly over the phone line.
"Ok. I dunno. I just think he knows what he's talking about."
"But he's a con man! He's absolutely about gaining people's confidence through lies and then reversing course to make himself rich! Now he's conning you!
"Ok. I dunno. I gotta go." Click. Ten million news articles later, Dilato votes for Trump, lackadaisically, and the US is destroyed.
I'm sorry, but that's how I see the next election turning out. The majority of voters are John Dilatos. Low-information, or rather, less pejoratively, Too-genuinely-occupied-to-pay-attention-to-politics voters. I don't think Clinton is going to win because she is not getting her name in the news. Also we can't rely on demographics for the Democrats to win in 2016 because actually Republicans have the demographic edge in 2016. As "Real Clear Politics" has shown:
It is far easier for Republicans to win by increasing their support among white voters [than Latino voters], and getting more whites to actually vote in 2016. Sixty percent of whites voted for Romney and the white turnout was only 64 percent in 2012. If the GOP picks up 64 percent of the white vote in 2016, and 66 percent of whites turn out to vote (as they did in 2008), the Republican candidate wins in a landslide.
That is very, very, very possible in a 2016 general election, especially with Trump getting the nomination.