Missouri Political Geography
I. Kansas City Metropolitan Area (18% of the State’s Population)
This diary will not be exploring the political geography of the Kansas side of the Kansas City, Mo metropolitan area (“KC”); that will be explored in a forthcoming diary: Kansas Political Geography. For the purposes of this diary, the KC area is defined as Jackson, Platte, Clay, and Cass counties.
A. Jackson County (Obama 2012: 59%, Population: 683K)
Jackson County is the most populous in the metro and is home to the urban core of KCMO; the city extends into the surrounding counties, but the historic and population core of the city is in Jackson. Approximately half of Jackson County’s population lives in Kansas City, the remainder live in Independence, Grandview, Lees Summit, Blue Springs, and smaller surrounding communities. A large percentage of the area’s African-American and Hispanic voters are located in Kansas City; accordingly most KCMO precincts have expected Democratic performances in the 70-90% range. Similarly, Grandview (pop. 25K) and Raytown (pop. 29K) have sizable minority populations and strong Democratic preferences. Independence is still largely Democratic, a combination of demosaurs and a decent size minority population on the northwest side of the city. Blue Springs and Lees Summit are much more Republican than their county brethren, Democrats here have little strength outside of rental housing communities. Rural eastern Jackson county retains a little bit more demosaur strength, with AA rep Emanuel Cleaver still winning in many of these areas.
More below the fold.
B. Cass County (Obama 2012: 35%, Population: 100K)
Democrats still maintain a fair amount of strength at the county/local level here. Former DA and likely 2016 AG nominee Teresa Hensley as well as her mentor Chris Koster (AG and likely/certain 2016 Gov. nominee) are examples of downballot strength. National Democrats perform poorly here, but Missouri Democrats have been known to win at least Belton and Harrisonville. This county is pure demosaur country, and I would be surprised if we have bottomed out here yet. Working-class white communities like these are suffering all around the state and are swinging away from us. A couple of newer KC exurbs, like Raymore, have reasonably well-to-do young families. It surprised me to learn that Cass was the third richest county in the state (a sign of the lack of wealth in Missouri, rather than the wealth of the county).
C. Clay County (Obama 2012: 45%, Population: 233K)
Liberty (pop. 30K) is a lost cause for us. Mormons, evangelical churches, and almost non-existent minority communities (Liberty is pure white flight), combine to form an inelastic core of pure conservative thought. It should be noted, however, that the Missouri state senate’s lone Republican moderate/sane-person (Ryan Silvey) hails from this area; there is a glimmer of hope. Gladstone, while largely white, is much poorer and open to voting for Democrats. Same with North Kansas City. Basically, the further south you get in the county, the more Democratic it becomes up and down the ballot.
Clay County is the KCMO area’s quintessential swing county and typically performs equal to national Democrats statewide. Downballot, Democrats have a tough time. Track houses and chain restaurants abound.
D. Platte County (Obama 2012: 42%, Population: 95K)
Less elastic than southern Clay County, Platte County has Democratic strength only in the apartment housing along Barry Road and the small, young, blue-collar towns of Riverside and Parkville. Track houses and chain restaurants abound, but further than that, the track houses are bigger and newer. Platte County is the wealthiest county in the KC area and second wealthiest in the state (behind St. Charles Co.).
II. St. Louis Metropolitan area (32% of the State’s population)
For the purposes of this diary (and only the purposes of this diary), there are three counties and one city in the St. Louis metropolitan area: St. Louis City, St. Louis County, Jefferson County, and St. Charles County.
A. St. Louis, City (Obama 2012: 83%, Population: 317K)
The City of St. Louis is politically distinct from the county. Largely, urban (shrinking), minority heavy, and machine oriented, St. Louis is the most liberal and Democratic area in Missouri. Not much to see here. Turnout is the name of the game; there are many precincts where Republicans can only count on one or two votes.
B. St. Louis County (Obama 2012: 56%, Population: 1.00 Mil.)
St. Louis County is more Democratic than many might believe, given the recent press coverage of the area. But it is a much more conservative base of Democrats than one would find in the city of St. Louis or in the urban core of KC.
The county is roughly regional: South County, West County and North County.
South County is what might be described as somewhat “white ethnic” (although it is diversifying) . This was Russ Carnahan’s (and Dick Gephardt’s) base and is shifting away from Democrats at light speed. I’d be surprised if we are cracking 40% of the vote for the next 20 years down here.
North County is the opposite. The minority heavy areas of North County are becoming rapidly less white and more than making up for the loss of white voters in the southern part of the county.
West County is the big question mark going forward: how will these socially-moderate affluent whites react to Ferguson? I personally believe that this area will slowly drift toward the Democratic column as racial tensions are soothed.
C. Jefferson County (Obama 2012: 42%, Population: 223K)
This area, south of St. Louis County, is an exaggerated mirror of the white, working class movement away from the Democratic party in the southern part of the St. Louis metro. Stopping the bleeding in this area needs to happen if we are competitive statewide. A little diversity would go a long way here.
D. St. Charles County (Obama 2012: 39%, Population: 379K)
I don’t have much to say about St. Charles except that it is the wealthiest county in the state, more evangelical than the other (white Catholic) areas of the metro, and pretty inelastic. This area supports some pretty train-wreck Republicans. If they get their base under control, St. Charles County will make life hell on statewide Democrats.
III. Central Missouri (The I-70 Corridor) (12% of the State’s Population at 719K people, Obama 2012: 38%)
For the purposes of this diary, Central Missouri is defined as Ray, Lafayette, Johnson, Carroll, Saline, Chariton, Howard, Cooper, Boone, Moniteau, Cole, Callaway, Osage, Gasconade, Montgomery, Warren, Franklin and Lincoln Counties. Some of these areas (Warren, Franklin, Lincoln, and Ray) are exurban areas, but all vote in the generally same way and contain the same sort of voters.
This area was originally settled by tobacco and hemp farmers who brought slaves with them for the labor intensive farming. Consequently, the area became known as “little Dixie” and carries most of the same political trends of the deep south. Little Dixie was the bedrock of Democratic strength in Missouri for nearly 100 years, although this has clearly changed, demosaurs hold all sorts of county offices in many counties throughout this region.
The only county that keeps Central Missouri above 35% for federal Democrats these days in Boone County; at 173K people that Obama narrowly carried (50/47) is anchored by Columbia (pop. 117K) containing the state’s largest university: Mizzou. Cole and Callaway Counties (Jefferson City) are stubbornly Republican up- and down-ballot; at 122K voting 32% Obama, this nearly counterbalances Columbia. The rest of the vote is remarkably consistent with the area mirroring the deep south 10 years ago (think Alabama Wiregrass 2006/2010). It still has lower to go.
IV. Southern Missouri (25% of the State’s Population, 32% Obama)
For the purposes of this diary, Southern Missouri is everything south of Central Missouri and not included in either above major metropolitan areas. Anchored in the west by Springfield and Joplin, and in the east by Poplar Bluff and Cape Girardeau, Southern Missouri votes remarkably uniformly.
Outside pockets of minority and college area voters, Southern Missouri whites vote about 25% for Democrats in almost all situations. McCaskill 2006 is the only time I’ve seen a Democrat campaign vigorously down here. It paid off to her then, and it was a smart strategic move, but it is unlikely that Democrats regain strength here.
The same sorts of voters you would find in the Arkansas Hill Country is what you find here. This area might be winnable by a conservative local Democrat in extreme wave situations, but in most elections, Democrats will not be even remotely competitive here in the future. This is a heavily evangelical part of the country; Huckabee racked up the vote here in 2008. Not even Springfield (Greene County pop. 286K, 37% Obama) offers much because, unlike its border state brethren, Springfield has no demosaur history whatsoever. Springfield is comparable to Knoxville, TN in that regard.
V. Northern Missouri (13% of the State’s Population, 34% Obama)
For the purposes of this diary, all counties not previous discuss are Northern Missouri.
Northern Missouri is just as evangelical as Southern Missouri and it is the most heavily white area of the state. St. Joseph (Buchanan County pop. 89K, 45% Obama) in the west, Kirksville (Adair County pop. 26K, 42% Obama) in the north-central, and Hannibal (Marion county pop. 29K, 33% Obama) in the east of the state are the only cities/areas of any size in Northern Missouri. There are a fairly large number of farmers per capita in the counties approaching the Iowa border. This area is conservative, but establishment, non-reactionary conservative. Buchanan County typically mirrors statewide results and is fairly lean-dem downballot; state-level Democrats can count on Buchanan to be lean-D (55-58%-ish) but federal Democrats have a tough time in Buchanan (outside of Obama 2008’s narrow win).
The rest of Northern Missouri is white, working-class and Republican. This part of the state has a comparable political culture to Nebraska.