The bigger the crisis, the bigger the WAVE election. Global Warming is the ultimate crisis, and the ultimate BIG BLUE WAVE election for Democrats.
It’s easy to get discouraged about solving Global Warming. The physics are complicated and the economic forces driving us to burn more fossil fuels are powerful. No doubt, we are speeding towards the “worst case scenario” – Runaway Global Warming which makes Earth too hot for human civilization. And this is very depressing. But Global Warming is neither a scientific problem nor an economic problem. We have solid science which tells us how Global Warming is happening and we have technologies and economic tools to slow down Global Warming if we wish to do so. And the vast majority of our citizens do not want a climate catastrophe. Skeptical about that last point? Well just poll voters and ask if they would like temperatures to rise to 140F or more.
Global Warming is a political problem. And the reason we are still heading towards the ‘worst case scenario’ is because we have the ‘worst case scenario’ in our government. The Republican Congress. Let me repeat. The Republican Congress is why we are headed for Runaway Global Warming. You could not create a better recipe for disaster (Runaway Global Warming) than the Republican Congress. And, the Republican members of Congress are so committed to this madness that they have willingly betrayed their own children and grandchildren in exchange for money from the fossil fuel industry and political power from their brainwashed voters. Truly monstrous behavior. But luckily, the Republican Congress is not a law of physics. It can be changed. Easily. And Global Warming can be solved if voters BLAME the Republican Party. Now you may have read that the Republican gerrymandering of 2010 guarantees Republican control of Congress for forever. But that is not true. The Republican Congressional seats are safe ONLY in close elections. In a wave election, the Republican seats are much more vulnerable than Democratic seats. This is because Republican voters are spread thinly across their districts. Professor Sam Wang discusses it here.
A Democrat Congress and President would quickly pass a carbon rebate and a cap and trade treaty which would slow down Global Warming before it becomes a runaway disaster. But this can only happen if there is a Wave election in 2016. Wave elections occur when voters assign blame. (They could be called BLAME elections). During the Democratic Congressional landslides of 1932 and 2008, the Democrats gained near supermajorities in Congress because voters blamed Republicans for mismanaging the economy. And there is no good reason why voters should not blame Republicans for mismanaging the climate in 2016, 2018, and beyond. But if we want a wave election which sweeps a Democrat supermajority into Congress, we must explain to voters why Global Warming is such a huge problem and who is to blame. And we must do this clearly, simply, and consistently.
Now many environmentalists are uncomfortable about assigning blame. Instead, they have chosen to ‘educate’ voters about the science of Global Warming, and hope voters follow along. But this has been a huge mistake. First, most voters don’t have time for that. Second, it allows Republicans to ‘challenge and debate’ the science of Global Warming which gives voters the impression that there are legitimate arguments on ‘both’ sides. But with Global Warming, there is only one truth: If human civilization is to survive, all fossil fuels must be phased as soon as possible.
Now many would argue that even if voters assign blame to the Republicans, we cannot win this battle because the fossil fuel industry is the largest, richest, and most politically powerful economic force of all time. And that is exactly what the fossil fuel industry wants you to believe. But in reality the fossil fuel industry is only about 10% of the global economy, and Runaway Global Warming will destroy both the global economy and the value of most real estate. So from this perspective, the political power of the fossil fuel industry is laughable. Which means the key to solving global warming is a “divide and conquer” strategy which separates the fossil fuel industry (and the Republican Party) from every other industry and every other person in America.
Let’s begin with Florida as an example. The Florida state legislature, Florida Congressional delegation, and Florida governorship are all controlled by Republicans who completely oppose real solutions to the climate crisis. But so far, Florida voters have not driven the Republicans out of office. Why? Because most Florida voters don’t realize how quickly rising sea levels will ruin their cities and towns. Now imagine if all the homeowners and building owners in coastal Florida suddenly realized that rising sea levels will wipe out their investments in as little as 15 years if we keep burning fossil fuels. * And, assume they also recognized that the Republican Party is to blame for this disaster. Do you think these property owners will vote Republican in 2016? And now let us expand our example to everyone who has children in America, or who owns any land, or who has any type of business. Below are the new maximum heat waves made possible by Global Warming.
Approximate Estimates for Maximum Fahrenheit
Temperatures and Heat Index on a Warming Earth
Increase in Earth's Approximate Maximum
Average Celsius Fahrenheit Heat Wave
Temperature Temperature Heat Index
+12 C 147 F 200 F
+6 C 136 F 170 F
+4 C 132 F 155 F
+2 C 129 F 142 F
Thanks Republicans!
As you can see from the table above, a warmer Earth will have few humans living on it. We can basically kiss everything we know and everyone we love goodbye: our children, our grandchildren, our entire civilization (cities and farms) and almost all of nature (forest, fields, rivers and streams and all the life within them). Gone. Forever. Now, if all parents, business owners, and landowners were suddenly made aware that these unlivable temperatures are coming our way because of the Republican Congress, do you think they will vote Republican in 2016?
This is how a Democratic Wave can sweep through the 2016 electorate. And if there was ever a time to assign blame, this is it. Because Republicans will allow Runaway Global Warming to drown America’s coastal cities and turn the American heartland to dust. And Democrats will not. Because Republicans will condemn your children to terrible suffering and your grandchildren to annihilation. And Democrats will not.
This framing of evil versus good is far more effective at motivating voters to vote for climate action than explaining “how” global warming works. And most importantly, this framing allows voters to EASILY choose sides. And ironically, the greatest barrier to solving the Climate Crisis is neither the Republican Party nor the fossil fuel industry. It is the hesitation of Climate Hawks and Democrats to assign blame. If they miss this golden opportunity to attack and blame the Republicans, they may not get another chance. Because the Republican Party can easily greenwash their rhetoric to further confuse voters of their true intentions. This may allow Republicans to get elected to combat the Climate Crisis and then once in office do nothing at all, or not nearly enough. Just like President George W. Bush. And that would probably close the door on our last chance to avoid the ‘worst case scenario’ of Runaway Global Warming. So let’s stop debating Global Warming, let’s talk specifically about what is about to happen, and let’s blame the Republican Party. Before it’s too late.
Note: *By the 2020s, mortgage lenders and property insurers will likely stop doing business in coastal Florida. (Assuming we keep burning fossil fuels.) By then it will be undeniable that unstoppable rising sea levels will inundate billions of dollars in coastal real estate beginning in the 2050s to 2060s. Property values will likely collapse 30 years before rising seas swallow coastal real estate.
CITATION FOR IMAGE: Minnesota Population Center. National Historical Geographic Information System: Version 2.0. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota 2011. http://www.nhgis.org/