The Awful Debate Schedule
By now everyone has heard the theory that the DNC and its Chair, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, concocted a very bizarre debate schedule in order to help Hillary Clinton and to hurt any potential challenger by denying public exposure and above all avoiding any side-by-side comparisons that might damage the anointed nominee-to-be.
To recap: The DNC scheduled only 6 debates, and only 4 debates prior to the start of the primaries in Iowa. By contrast, the RNC scheduled 12 debates (yes 2x more) with fully 7 debates scheduled prior to the Iowa caucuses. The DNC also scheduled many of the debates on extremely low viewer dates, such as the 3rd debate that took place on the Saturday evening before Christmas. The upcoming 4th debate is another classic example, falling as it does very late on a Sunday night during a 3-day holiday weekend.
In addition, the RNC have scheduled a debate in between the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. The Democrats have not.
I and others here at DKos have railed against the perceived unfairness of this debate schedule, believing as we did that it will work against Bernie Sanders. Little did we envision that the limited debate schedule may actually hurt Hillary Clinton and indeed help Bernie Sanders.
Surprise! Bernie Has the Momentum in Iowa and New Hampshire
Polls are unreliable and rarely accurate, but trends in polling often point to actual changes on the ground. In this respect, all recent polls are trending in one direction, namely that Bernie Sanders is quickly gaining on and may even be ahead of Hillary Clinton in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Some polls show Bernie clearly ahead in both races, other show them in a statistical tie. What all the polls show, however, is a marked decrease in the lead enjoyed by Clinton in Iowa as recently as one month ago.
So — Bernie is surging. And if you are the Clinton Campaign, you desperately need to find some way to stop and reverse that surge. But how?
Be Careful What You Wish For
Debates can often be real game changers. A stellar debate performance by one candidate can drastically change that candidate’s standing in the polls, and can generate perceived momentum more than any other medium such as ads, speeches or interviews. By the same token, a “gotcha moment” or a major stumble by one candidate can completely reverse that candidate’s standing in the race. Debates are high-stakes events, and for these very reasons DWS and the DNC sought to minimise the potential impact that any one debate could have and to diminish the overall role of the debates in the primary race itself.
I am sure that Debbie and the DNC never, ever dreamed that Hillary Clinton would be the candidate to desperately need a game changing debate performance to rescue her campaign and slow down or even stop her opponent’s rise in the polls.
But such is the case today.
This Sunday’s debate will be watched by very few people; the greater Democratic electorate have just not become used to watching the Democratic debates due to those events being so few and far between and falling on such inopportune dates and times. This Sunday night most people are going to be enjoying a long MLK holiday weekend.
To make matters worse, the DNC — unlike the RNC — did not schedule any debate between the two “first in the nation” primaries. Whoever comes out of the Iowa caucuses with a win will have all the momentum going forward, and can afford to play it safe and just cruise into New Hampshire. Obviously, the idea behind this was to allow Hillary to slingshot off an “inevitable” win in Iowa to perform well in New Hampshire.
Bernie had already started to make headway in the polls by the time the debate schedule was announced in August, so I am sure that there was also a specific calculation to prevent Bernie from recapturing momentum heading into his neighbouring “home turf” of New Hampshire. Hillary’s anticipated win in Iowa would thus stand alone to serve as a talisman, a harbinger of the inevitability of the Clinton nomination that would sway NH Democrats to her side.
Bernie is on the rise … everywhere
Now there is a better than even chance that Bernie will win in Iowa, which would most likely lead to his winning by a landslide in New Hampshire. The momentum gained from winning these two contests might even be enough to shatter Clinton’s so-called “firewall” in Nevada and South Carolina.
National polls, which used to show Clinton with an insurmountable 20%+ lead, have now closed to within just a few points (±4). So the momentum nationwide as well as in the “early states” rests clearly and strongly with Bernie Sanders.
My Prediction
The Establishment and the Mainstream Media all claim that Hillary won all the debates so far, and Clinton is applauded for being a brilliant debater — despite all snap polls and focus groups showing that Bernie won all 3 debates. I am sure all the consultants and advisors will agree that Hillary needs to go out and “beat” Bernie in more debates. They have drunk their own Kool-Aid, and they will take the step that they now believe will play to the “strength” of their candidate.
I predict that the DNC will soon announce an “expanded” debate schedule to allow Hillary more chances to blunt Bernie’s onslaught. DWS and the DNC can no longer afford to “play it safe” and Hillary will have to act like she is in a real race for the nomination.
Because she actually is.
Update: 22 January 2016
My prediction is coming true — there is now a hastily organised “Town Hall” scheduled to take place on Monday 25 January on CNN — Hillary is desperate to try to get back in the race for Iowa.
Good luck with that.