Leading Off:
● MN-03: Democrats scored a big coup over the weekend in Minnesota, as state Sen. Terri Bonoff made a late—and unexpected—entry into the race against GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen. News of a possible Bonoff bid only surfaced late on Thursday; on Saturday, she announced her campaign at a party convention. Lobbyist Jon Tollefson, who had been the only Democrat in the race but had raised little money, immediately dropped out and endorsed Bonoff.
Bonoff ran for this seat once before, when it became open in 2008. However, the Democratic Party's official endorsement that year went to Iraq vet Ashwin Madia, and she declined to challenge him in the primary. Madia went on to lose to Paulsen 48-41 (an Independence Party candidate took 11 percent), and since then, the incumbent has won re-election three times, never with less than 58 percent of the vote.
But Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District, located in the Minneapolis suburbs, voted for Barack Obama by a narrow 50-49 margin in 2012, making Paulsen a tempting target for Democrats. The problem for Team Blue, though, has always been candidate recruitment, but in Bonoff, they've just landed a legitimate contender with the right sort of moderate profile for a district like this.
What's more, Bonoff's decision to join the race despite the late hour is one of the most concrete signs we've seen to date that Democrats are really starting to feel that a Donald Trump or Ted Cruz nomination could damage the GOP downticket. (Bonoff specifically called Paulsen out for failing to "reject" what the two Republican presidential frontrunners "stand for.") However, while Paulsen is very conservative, he's generally been very smart about avoiding controversy. He's also an excellent fundraiser: He took in a hefty $516,000 in the first quarter and has $2.3 million in the bank.
But Bonoff, unlike many candidates who find themselves startled at how much money it takes to run for Congress, gets it. In announcing her bid, she said she "won't compete on a shoestring" and promised to "give everything I've got to raising the money to compete." Bonoff's fundraising for her previous bid is a bit hard to compare directly since she wasn't her party's nominee, but she raised $476,000 in about five months on the trail. Paulsen is a tough target, but if Bonoff can follow through, she's capable of making this a real race—and putting a seat in play that Democrats had otherwise largely written off. Because of the strength of her candidacy, we're moving this race from Safe Republican all the way to Lean Republican.
1Q Fundraising: Be sure to check out our full Senate fundraising chart.
● CA-Sen: Kamala Harris (D): $2 million raised; Loretta Sanchez (D): $550,000 raised, $2.3 million cash-on-hand
● LA-Sen: John Kennedy (R): $817,000 raised, $700,000 cash-on-hand
● MD-Sen: Donna Edwards (D): $1.2 million raised, $668,000 cash-on-hand; Chris Van Hollen (D): $1.8 million raised, $1.7 million cash-on-hand
● MO-Gov: Chris Koster (D): $2.2 million raised, $7.4 million cash-on-hand; John Brunner (R): $163,000 raised; Eric Greitens (R): $1 million raised, $4.1 million cash-on-hand; Catherine Hanaway (R): $558,000 raised, $1.5 million cash-on-hand; Peter Kinder (R): $332,000 raised, $624,000 cash-on-hand
Senate:
● CO-Sen: Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet can't take his re-election for granted in this swing seat, but none of his potential Republican foes are wowing us with their fundraising. Ex-state Rep. Jon Keyser's camp tried to sell him as the NRSC's preferred candidate when he entered the race, an idea that NRSC chief Roger Wicker didn't really contradict a few months ago. However, big GOP donors are not opening their wallets for Keyser right now: He reports raising just $300,000 during the first three months of 2016, and he loaned himself another $100,000. Keyser has only $200,000 on-hand ahead of the June primary.
Rich guys Robert Blaha and Jack Graham didn't bring in much more from donors either but unlike Keyser, they can write their campaigns huge checks. Blaha only raised $100,000 but loaned himself $1 million, and he has $670,000 on-hand. Graham, a former athletic director at Colorado State University, raised $341,000 and also lent himself $1 million, and he has $942,000 in the bank. Ex-Aurora Councilor Ryan Frazier took in just $50,000 and self-funded $100,000, and he has $190,000 on-hand. El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn has yet to report his totals. By contrast, Bennet hauled in a hefty $1.8 million, and he has $7.6 million in the bank.
It's very possible that some of these contenders won't even make it to the GOP primary. With the exception of Glenn, all these candidates decided to collect signatures rather than go through the state party convention to get on the ballot. (Glenn was the only person who went through the convention who got enough delegate support to advance to the primary.) Colorado has some very onerous petition requirements: Contenders need either 1,050 valid signatures from each of the seven congressional districts, or 10,500 statewide. To make things more complicated, if the same voter fills out a petition for more than one candidate, the signature only counts for the candidate who turned in their paperwork first. Frazier has the fewest resources and he turned in his petitions last so if anyone gets chopped, it will probably be him. The state has until April 29 to verify the signatures.
● CO-Sen, NV-Sen: According to Reid Wilson at Morning Consult, the DSCC's first set of ad reservations in the two Senate seats Democrats are actively defending this year are much larger than we previously thought. In Colorado, the committee is reportedly blocking out $5 million in airtime on behalf of Sen. Michael Bennet, the lone vulnerable Democratic incumbent up for re-election this fall, while in Nevada, it's booking $4 million on behalf of former state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, who is trying to hold Harry Reid's seat. Earlier tweets from the Smart Media Group, a Republican firm, had said the reservations were for $2.3 million and $2.8 million, respectively. Reservations can, however, always be altered or cancelled.
● FL-Sen: A very big labor organization just came in for Rep. Patrick Murphy: the 140,000-strong Florida Education Association, the state's largest teachers union. When asked why the union went with Murphy over his Democratic primary opponent, Rep. Alan Grayson, despite their similar stands, the group's president explained, "It was more of his demeanor …. He is more genuine and for the people, very wanting to listen and hear, doesn't come in with the answers."
● MD-Sen: Even though Maryland's Democratic primary is just a week away, the state's congressional delegation hasn't taken sides in the Senate race—until now. Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger, who had himself considered a Senate bid, just gave his backing to fellow Rep. Chris Van Hollen, specifically citing his unhappiness over a controversial TV ad on guns that a super PAC supporting Van Hollen's opponent, Rep. Donna Edwards, recently ran. But congressional endorsements don't usually mean that much, except as leading indicators of which way establishment forces might be leaning. In this case, though, Ruppersberger's late endorsement is at best a lagging indicator, particularly since much of the Maryland political establishment long ago got behind Van Hollen.
Gubernatorial:
● NH-Gov: The Democratic field for New Hampshire's open gubernatorial contest recently grew to three, with former Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand joining Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern and former state Director of Securities Regulation Mark Connolly, but now it might grow to four. Businessman Jim Moskun, who has never run for anything before, says he's "about 90 percent" in, and WMUR reports that he plans to decide on the race within the next three to four weeks. Searching for Moskun's name on Google doesn't yield a whole lot, so if he doesn't fall into the category of Random Rich Guy, then that means he's a Some Dude. Moskun explained that he wants to run because "I want to get out of my comfort zone," which is usually offered as a reason for hiking Yosemite, not seeking public office.
House:
● AZ-01: The Democratic group House Majority PAC announced two new fall ad reservations on Monday, and they committed a hefty $1.132 million to the Phoenix media market. (See our WI-08 item for information about the other reservation.) The group is almost certainly planning to defend Arizona's 1st District, an open seat that Romney carried 50-48: The only other potentially competitive House seat in the Phoenix market is the 9th, but Democratic incumbent Kyrsten Sinema doesn't have any credible GOP challengers yet. Ad reservations can be scaled back or canceled, but HMP is signaling that they're expecting a very competitive race here.
Tom O'Halleran, a former Republican state legislator, only faces minimal opposition in the late August Democratic primary, and national Democrats have already consolidated behind him. O'Halleran initially struggled with fundraising, but he upped his game over the past few months. O'Halleran hauled in $252,000 from January to March, a lot better than the $143,000 he brought in from October to December, and he has $330,000 in the bank. Back in February, the DCCC added O'Halleran to their "Emerging Races" list, a sign that while they felt O'Halleran had potential, he wasn't where he needed to get into the more-elite "Red to Blue" program. However, HMP seems to be convinced that he's worth spending big for.
It's far from clear who will be O'Halleran's GOP foe. Pinal Sheriff Paul Babeu has released polls showing him with big leads over his primary foes, but Babeu has earned a ton of awful headlines. Most notably, Babeu was exposed in a home video speaking warmly about the abusive treatment of students a school for troubled youth he once ran had engaged in—after long denying he ever had any knowledge of the abuse. Babeu's initially strong fundraising also leveled off in early 2016. Babeu brought in just $148,000 for the quarter, less than half of what he took in three months before. Babeu ended up spending most of that cash, and he has $259,000 in the bank.
Even if the GOP avoids nominating someone with Babeu's baggage, none of the other contenders are exactly awesome. There's wealthy rancher Gary Kiehne, who proclaimed during his 2014 campaign that "if you look at all the fiascos that have occurred, 99 percent of them have been by Democrats pulling their guns out and shooting people." Kiehne barely raised anything from donors but thanks to some past self-funding, his $514,000 warchest is larger than any of his rivals.
State Sen. Carlyle Begay only joined the GOP a few months ago, and his new party's donors don't seem to be in any hurry to embrace him. Begay raised just $40,000, and has about that much in the bank. Ex-Secretary of State Ken Bennett, who took a distant fourth place in the 2014 gubernatorial primary, also hasn't raised much money. Bennett hauled in just $80,000 for the quarter, and he has $196,000 on hand.
Veteran Wendy Rogers brought in an okay $145,000, and she has $101,000 on-hand. However, Rogers badly lost to Sinema in a different district during the 2014 GOP wave, so she's not exactly the GOP's ideal nominee. State House Speaker David Gowan raised a similar $169,000, and he has $238,000 on-hand. Gowan recently earned some negative attention after he required reporters to undergo background checks if they wanted to cover the state House; Gowan soon backed down. Republican primary voters probably won't see Gowan picking a fight with the media as anything but an asset, though the fact that Gowan barely represents any of the 1st District in the legislature could be an obstacle for him.
It's really hard to say who would be the strongest GOP contender out of this pretty meh lot, though it's probably not Babeu at least. Daily Kos Elections currently rates the general as a Tossup.
● FL-06: There may soon be a second Mooney in DC. Pat Mooney, the founder of a conservative marketing firm and the brother of West Virginia Rep. Alex Mooney, has been running for this open Volusia County seat for the last few months. Mooney raised $153,000 during the first three months of 2016 and loaned he himself another $200,000, and he has $337,000 in the bank. Unlike Alex, who infamously ran for the New Hampshire state House and served in the Maryland House of Delegates before carpetbagging to West Virginia, this appears to be Pat's first campaign in any state.
Somewhat surprisingly, Mooney has far more cash-on-hand than any of his opponents in the late August GOP primary. State Rep. Fred Costello hauled in only $37,000 and loaned himself another $100,000, and he has $86,000 on-hand. Fellow state Rep. David Santiago is doing a bit better: He raised $113,000 for the quarter and has $108,000 on hand. Navy veteran Brandon Patty, a former aide to Jeb Bush, raised a similar $108,000 and has $102,000 in the bank. Ex-Rep. Ric Keller entered the race last week after the quarter ended.
Romney only carried this seat 52-47, but Democrats aren't in a position to seriously contest the 6th. State Rep. Dwayne Taylor is running but he hauled in just $16,000 for the quarter and has less than $8,000 on-hand. Daily Kos Elections rates this as Safe Republican.
● FL-11: Republican Rep. Dan Webster decided to run in this safely red seat after redistricting made his old constituency unwinnable for the GOP, but he barely represents any of the new 11th District in the House. Not too surprisingly, local state legislators aren't exactly rolling out the red carpet for him. Last week, state Sen. Charlie Dean and state Rep. Jimmie Smith endorsed Justin Grabelle, Webster's primary foe; Grabelle also has the support of his old boss, retiring Rep. Richard Nugent.
Neither Republican contender is exactly lighting the world on fire with their fundraising. From Jan. 1 to March 31, Grabelle outraised Webster $137,000 to $103,000, though Webster has a $352,000 to $177,000 cash-on-hand edge. It's not a huge shock that Webster is having such a tough time bringing in dollars. Webster ran quixotic campaigns for the speakership against both John Boehner and Paul Ryan last year, so establishment types aren't fond of him. But Webster has also been in politics for decades, so he's not exactly a natural conduit for tea party rage either.
● MD-04: We're one week away for the primary for this safely blue suburban DC seat and while the candidates haven't spent the astronomical sums we've seen in the 8th District next door, the race hasn't exactly been cheap.
Plenty of Democrats are still angry with ex-Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown for losing the 2014 gubernatorial race to Republican Larry Hogan, and his fundraising hasn't been great all cycle. But Brown loaned his campaign $400,000, and the $605,000 he spent from Jan. 1 to April 6 is more than either of his main opponents has shelled out; Brown also has $224,000 left in the bank. Weirdly, Brown wrote the check even though he still hasn't paid off the $500,000 loan he owes to the Laborers Political Education Fund from his last race.
Glenn Ivey, a former Prince George's state's attorney, and state Del. Joseline Peña-Melnyk are also in the hunt for this seat. Ivey spent $484,000 during this time and had $332,000 left, while Peña-Melnyk spent $408,000 and had $262,000 available for the homestretch. Outside groups haven't devoted much money to this primary.
● MD-08: This is the most expensive House race in America, and you can thank one man for it. From Jan. 1 to April 6, rich guy David Trone pumped close to $10 million of his own money into his campaign for this safely blue seat, and he spent an insane $9 million. Trone had a little less than a million on hand as of April 6, but of course he's capable of spending a lot more than that. Luckily for DC-area TV viewers tired of his ads, the primary is next week.
In almost any other House primary, state Sen. Jamie Raskin and ex-hotel executive Kathleen Matthews would also be considered big spenders. During this period Raskin spent $806,000 and had $624,000 in the bank, while Matthews spent $1.7 million and had $424,000 on-hand. Matthews loaned her campaign $500,000 and she may be capable of doing more self-funding.
A few other candidates are running. Former Obama administration official Will Jawando spent $262,000 and had $79,000 left in the bank; Jawando also picked up an endorsement from Rep. Elijah Cummings on Monday. State Del. Kumar Barve spent $295,000 and had $64,000 left, while fellow Del. Ana Sol Gutierrez dropped $24,000 and had $168,000 left. Finally, former Obama state Department official Joel Rubin spent $129,000 and had $49,000 left.
● NC-12: Rep. Alma Adams faces a number of opponents in the June primary for this safely blue seat, and she's released a poll arguing that she's favored to hold on. The EMC Research poll from early April gives Adams a 37-28 lead over ex-state Sen. Malcolm Graham; state Rep. Tricia Cotham takes 11, while fellow state Reps. Carla Cunningham and Rodney Moore are at 3 and 1 respectively. This year, there are no runoffs in North Carolina.
A 9-point edge two months away from the primary really isn't much for an incumbent to write home about but then again, this election is taking place under a very strange set of circumstances. The state redrew its congressional map and while Adams represents a little more than half of the new 12th District, her Greensboro base was drawn out. Adams recently announced that she would move to Charlotte, but her opponents are still hoping to portray her as an outsider. To make things weirder, North Carolina's new congressional map has still not been approved in federal court, so there's a chance the primary will take place at a later date in a completely different district.
Adams may not have all the usual benefits of incumbency, but she still has more access to money than her opponents. Adams raised $205,000 in the first three months of 2016, and she has $347,000 in the bank. Graham hauled in a much weaker $30,000 and has just $20,000 to spend. Cotham didn't do much better, and neither of the other state representatives report raising anything. Cotham only got into the race near the end of the quarter, so she may be able to improve on her poor first quarter. However, Graham had trouble bringing in cash during his 2014 bid for the old version of this seat, and his opening quarter signals that he's still having problems. If Adams can dramatically outspend her rivals, she'll be tough to beat in this splintered field.
● OK-01: Filing closed Friday in Oklahoma, and the state has a list of candidates here. Sen. James Lankford and all five of the state's House members are seeking re-election, and Daily Kos Elections rates each seat as Safe Republican.
However, it's possible that one member could have some difficulty in the June 28 GOP primary. Tea partying Rep. Jim Bridenstine will face Tom Atkinson, who owns an oil company. Atkinson is the brother-in-law of Tulsa Mayor Dewey Bartlett, but the two are not friendly politically. If Atkinson has some personal money to spend or enough connections to raise cash he could give Bridenstine a hard time, though Bridenstine doesn't appear to have much to alienate primary voters in this conservative Tulsa seat. Bridenstine also has $575,000 in the bank, so Atkinson isn't exactly catching him unprepared.
Bridenstine has insisted that he will not seek re-election in 2018, though he'd hardly be the first politician from either party to break his self-imposed term limits. A minor Republican is running here, so it's possible that neither Bridenstine nor Atkinson will take a majority in June and be forced into an August runoff. Romney carried this seat 68-32, and it will stay red regardless of who takes the GOP nod.
● PA-02: If state Rep. Dwight Evans doesn't beat indicted Rep. Chaka Fattah in next week's Democratic primary, it probably won't be because he didn't spend enough money. From Jan. 1 to April 6, Evans outspent Fattah $497,000 to $10,000; Evans also holds a $324,000 to $8,000 cash-on-hand edge, so this disparity isn't going to get any better for Fattah in the final days of the race.
However, it's possible that the other two primary candidates will peel off enough anti-Fattah voters to cost Evans. Ward leader Dan Muroff spent $196,000 during this time, though he only had $95,000 left in the bank. Brian Gordon, a township commissioner in Lower Merion Township, spent just $25,000 and has $2,000 left. This Philadelphia seat is safely blue.
● PA-06: Democrats would love to give freshman Republican Ryan Costello a run for his money in this 51-48 Romney seat, but that would require a candidate who actually has money. Democrat Mike Parrish, who is Team Blue's only candidate, raised just $29,000 during the first quarter of 2016, and he has only $16,000 in the bank. By contrast, Costello brought in $503,000 during this time, and he has $1.2 million on-hand. Not. Good.
● PA-07: Republican Rep. Pat Meehan sits in a 50-49 Romney seat in suburban Philadelphia, and Democrats are hoping this will be his unlucky year. However, national party favorite Bill Golderer's fundraising slowed considerably over the last three months: Golderer brought in $119,000, less than half of his $246,000 haul from October to December. Still, Golderer's in much better shape than primary foe Mary Ellen Balchunis, who raised just $23,000 and trails Golderer $136,000 to $18,000 in cash-on-hand. Local county parties are backing Balchunis, and there's a chance she'll come out ahead in next week's primary.
Meehan himself is taking his re-election campaign seriously. Meehan raised $512,000 over the last three months, and he has $2.5 million on hand. Meehan does face a primary challenge from businessman Stan Casacio, but it doesn't look like there will be much to watch. Casacio raised just $25,000 during his campaign, and he had only $17,000 to spend as of early April.
● PA-08: We have one week left before the Democratic primary for this swing seat, and state Rep. Steve Santarsiero is going on the attack. Santarsiero's new ad blasts businesswoman Shaughnessy Naughton for an allegedly "incendiary" attack on Santarsiero (in reality, a very standard-issue mailer from a super PAC); the narrator continues, "No wonder she's been questioned for violating the law." The rest of the ad praises Santarsiero as a progressive.
It's a pretty boring spot, apart from that oh-so-small bit about Naughton being accused of wrongdoing. The ad doesn't go into any detail, but Santarsiero is referring to an FEC complaint filed by a supporter alleging that the super PAC behind the mailer improperly coordinated with Naughton's own campaign. While these kinds of allegations are pretty run of the mill, what makes this situation so odd is that the group, called 314 PAC (like the first three digits in pi), was founded by Naughton herself.
According to 314, Naughton left the organization in 2015 when she launched her second bid for Congress. But last year, the PAC paid $20,000 in consulting fees to Josh Morrow, who happens to be Naughton's fiancé—and who, during the same time period, also received $14,500 as a consultant for Naughton's campaign. The case is entirely circumstantial, but the facts here are a bit dodgier than usual. However, this kind of process issue is unlikely to really excite voters with just one week left, unless Santarsiero can score a few points by throwing around the phrase "violating the law."
It's unclear who has the edge next week, especially since there haven't been any recent polls. Naughton had constantly outraised Santarsiero throughout the campaign, but he brought in more money in 2016. Naughton still outspent Santarsiero from Jan. 1 through April 6, but only by a $630,000 to $549,000 margin. Naughton also has a small $389,000 to $302,000 cash-on-hand edge. Whoever emerges from the primary will need to prepare for another competitive contest. Ex-FBI agent Brian Fitzpatrick (the brother of Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick) doesn't face any credible GOP primary opposition, so he hasn't needed to spend much cash. Fitzpatrick has $413,000 in the bank, and both parties are going to fight hard for this competitive suburban Philadelphia seat.
● PA-09: After winning just 53 percent in his last primary for this safely red seat, House Transportation Committee head Bill Shuster and his allies are taking absolutely nothing for granted. Shuster outspent businessman Art Halvertson $724,000 to $144,000 over the last three months; Shuster has a $1.4 million to $31,000 cash-on-hand edge, so he can continue dominating the airwaves until next week's primary.
The American Action Network, which is close to the GOP establishment, also is pitching in. The group is spending $150,000 on a TV spot that argues Shuster is a genuine conservative. Still, it's always possible that this spending spree won't be quite enough. Shuster decisively outspent Halvorson and another primary opponent last cycle only to finish with just a small majority. Shuster also has earned some bad headlines over the last year after he helped pass a bill favorable to the airline industry while dating an airline lobbyist, and the story hasn't gone away.
● PA-16: Well, it looks like the GOP primary to succeed retiring Rep. Joe Pitts will be worth watching after all. State Sen. Lloyd Smucker managed to mostly clear the field, but businessman Chet Beiler (who was Team Red's nominee for state auditor in 2008) didn't get out of the way. From Jan 1. to April 6, Beiler outspent Smucker $568,000 to $444,000. Beiler loaned his campaign $493,000 while Smucker ponied up $275,000 of his own money; while Smucker held a $105,000 to $41,000 cash-on-hand edge in early April, both contenders may be capable of throwing down a lot more dough for the homestretch.
Romney carried this Lancaster County seat 52-46 and Obama actually narrowly won it four years before, so it could be vulnerable if there's a blue wave this fall. Christina Hartman raised a non-trivial $108,000 over the last three months and she has $127,000 in the bank, and she may be able to make this a race if the stars align. Still, this is a historically Republican area and national Democrats haven't signaled much interest in targeting this district, at least so far.
● WI-08: On Monday, the Democratic group House Majority PAC announced that they had reserved $220,000 in TV time for the fall in the Green Bay media market. There isn't any doubt that HMP plans to air ads in Wisconsin's 8th District, an open 51-48 Romney seat. Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson kicked off his campaign recently, and Democrats seem excited about him.
Nelson is unlikely to face any credible opposition in the August primary, but two notable Republicans are duking it out. Mike Gallagher, who served as Gov. Scott Walker's foreign policy advisor, entered the race with the support of several prominent local businessmen, and he raised a strong $520,000 during his opening quarter. By contrast, state Sen. Frank Lasee only raised $161,000 during this time. Gallagher holds a $507,000 to $154,000 cash-on-hand edge. Daily Kos Elections rates the general as Lean Republican.
Legislative:
● NY State Senate: Siena College has some gloomy news for Democrats hoping to pick up a Republican-held state Senate seat in a key special election on Long Island on Tuesday. The school's new poll has Republican attorney Chris McGrath beating Democratic Assemblyman Todd Kaminsky by a 51-43 margin, a considerable shift from Kaminsky's 47-45 edge a month ago.
Specials are, of course, not easy to poll, and Siena's had its share of misses. But in another Senate special election last year, Siena accurately predicted a blowout, with their final poll putting the Republican up 52 points (he won by 57). As we've noted previously, this election is taking place on the same day as New York's presidential primary, and since the GOP nomination battle is far more competitive than the Democrats', that's had the effect of boosting Republican turnout in most prior contests. If that happens again, that ought to help McGrath, but we won't have long to wait to find out either way.
● Special Elections: In addition to the big state Senate special in New York (see our separate item), there are two other legislative elections taking place in the Empire State on Tuesday. Johnny Longtorso has the scoop:
New York AD-59: This is an open Democratic seat located in Canarsie and Bergen Beach in southeastern Brooklyn. The candidates are Democrat Jamie Williams, who was chief of staff to the prior Assembly member (Roxanne Persaud, who is now in the Senate), and Republican Jeffrey Ferretti, who ran for this seat in 2014 and lost 74-26. This seat went 80-20 for Barack Obama in 2012.
New York AD-65: This is the seat formerly held by Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, who was removed from office last year after his conviction on corruption charges. The district is located on the southern tip of Manhattan and taking in Chinatown, the Lower East Side, and the Financial District. The Democratic Party has nominated Alice Cancel, a district leader and employee of the city comptroller's office. The Republican nominee is Lester Chang, a consultant and Navy reservist, but Cancel's main opposition is Working Families Party nominee Yuh-Line Niou, chief of staff to a Queens Assemblyman, who earned the endorsement of the New York Times (which can play an outsize role in low-visibility contests like this one). Also on the ballot is Green Party nominee Dennis Levy, the president of the New York State Committee to Legalize Marijuana. This seat went 81-17 for Obama in 2012.
Grab Bag
● New York Primary: Both parties will hold their presidential primary in New York on Tuesday, and we'll be liveblogging all the fireworks! Polls close at 9 PM ET and we'll begin our liveblog then at Daily Kos Elections; we'll also be live-tweeting. We'll also be keeping an eye on the special election for SD-09.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.
