Clinton's national polling lead might be comparable to Obama's in 2012, but the Electoral College map points to a race that simply isn't that close. Clinton has a dominant edge in enough states for a majority of electoral votes and isn't even running ads in the key swing states of Colorado and Virginia because she feels her leads there are so solid. (These were states George Bush easily won just over a decade ago.) She also has made major investments in North Carolina, which Mitt Romney carried, and even has her toes in the water in genuine red states like Arizona and Georgia, suggesting possible increased investment closer to November.
In both 2008 and 2012, if you lined up every state according to the size of the margin between Obama and his Republican opponents, the state that put Obama over the top—that is, gave him 270 electoral votes—both times provided him with a wider margin than he earned nationally. In other words, Obama performed better in the crucial swing states than he did nationwide, and according to the polls, the same is true for Clinton today.
And that's really all that matters. Even if the race were to narrow several points more on a national basis, Clinton's swing-state advantage would keep her on the good side of 270. This isn't to say that the Electoral College has a built-in bias in favor of Democrats: After all, four elections ago, Republicans won an electoral vote majority despite losing the popular vote. Rather, Clinton's edge in the battleground states is attributable to her far superior campaign—and Trump's stunning lack thereof.
It's certainly an unusual situation, because in previous eras, when the field of states in play was far bigger, there was less of a difference between the national picture and what was going on in the swing states. But these days, with such a small group of states up for grabs, the disparity is magnified. That has the effect of masking Clinton's lead where it counts, and with Trump woefully behind in campaign preparedness, he's just about out of time to try to make up the gap.
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