Republicans are increasingly fretting about the prospect of major losses in North Carolina. Donald Trump’s near lack of a campaign has allowed Hillary Clinton and her allies to build an enormous advantage in terms of field offices and a seven-to-one TV ad spending advantage. These disparities have local and national Republicans worried that they could fail to turn out enough of their voters in November, and indeed, polls show Clinton has a good chance of carrying North Carolina, despite the fact that the state went for Mitt Romney four years ago. That could cost Republicans dearly in one of just two states that’s hosting contested race for president, Senate, and governor this year.
Compounding matters further is Gov. Pat McCrory’s unpopularity amid the continued fallout from House Bill 2. That anti-LGBT rights law has mired North Carolina in national controversy, civil rights lawsuits, and boycotts from major businesses. In a high-profile move, the NCAA recently pulled the 2017 men’s basketball championship game from North Carolina, and the ACC followed suit, which is a big deal in a state with many fanatic college basketball fans.
And it goes beyond the statewide races, too. Politico reports that four unreleased internal polls from Republicans show McCrory and HB2 are major liabilities in key suburban legislative districts. While we are normally very hesitant to rely upon unconfirmed polls from anonymous sources, this data nonetheless dovetails with what public pollsters are also saying. Raleigh-based Public Policy Polling has had Pat McCrory’s approval rating lower than his disapproval for a staggering 34 straight monthly surveys dating back to a contentions 2013 legislative session, and McCrory has likewise not led his Democratic challenger, Attorney General Roy Cooper, in virtually any public polling since May. Indeed, he now trails Cooper by nearly 5 points in the Huffington Post Pollster average.
The Senate race also has Republicans concerned because they don’t believe Richard Burr is taking the race seriously enough against Democratic ex-state Rep. Deborah Ross. Other Republican incumbents in states like Ohio have spent millions on ads to negatively define their opponents, but Burr has instead focused considerable effort on his day job in the Senate. In one astounding recent quote he remarked, “I become a candidate on Oct. 7, when the United States Senate is adjourned.” While that might be laudable from a civics perspective, it reflects a 19th century campaign mindset.
Ross started the race with little name recognition and was far from national Democrats' preferred candidate. However, she has demonstrated serious chops so far by posting solid fundraising hauls, and national Democrats have begun to take notice. After a conspicuous absence, the DSCC finally kicked off a seven-figure ad buy, and Republican groups have recently done the same, indicating that both parties view North Carolina as a very competitive race.
However, Republicans believe they can use Ross’ record from her time running the North Carolina American Civil Liberties Union chapter against her, and she has yet to withstand a nuclear barrage of negative attacks that is sure to come. Burr himself is also relatively unknown and will have to work to define his accomplishments during his 12 years in the Senate, but for now he narrowly leads Ross by just 2.5 percent in the Huffington Post Polling average.
Finally, North Carolina Republicans also have their state Supreme Court majority on the line. While technically a nonpartisan race, incumbent Justice Bob Edmunds is backed by Republican, and he faces a challenge from Wake County Superior Court Judge Mike Morgan, who is supported by Democrats. The victor’s party will control the court. This race is critical to legislative redistricting in 2021 because aggressive Republican gerrymandering has likely made the legislature unwinnable for Democrats in 2016, even as McCrory’s unpopularity weighs down legislative Republicans. A Democratic Supreme Court majority could prevent such gerrymanders in the future future—and Trump’s poor campaign could make it possible.
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