Focus is on IOWA, the very first contest. Lots of Hillary volunteers are braving frigid temperatures this weekend to canvass, knock on doors, for Hillary. They seem to be coming back with fantastic results, people committing to vote for Hillary on the spot. The tweets speak for themselves. Things are really rolling in Iowa with lots of boots on the ground.
The IRON WORKERS UNION Iowa local held a rally in DesMoines, Iowa on Saturday, followed by a day of canvassing door to door. 70 Iron Worker Union Hillary supporters braved the bitter cold and fanned out in frigid temperatures to knock on doors in DesMoines.
Iowa Starting Line @IAStartingLine 8h8 hours ago
About 70 Ironworkers here, canvass packets getting ready for them by @HillaryforIA staff #IACaucus
Ironworkers for Hillary show off their new shirts for the #IACaucus
Thanks @AFSCME for keeping my ears warm during this arctic weekend of canvassing for @HillaryClinton in Cedar Falls!
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Chilly weekend of action day 1 success. Not sure what's more beautiful, the commits for #hillary2016 or the sunset
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Even on this cold day it warms me up getting a chance to speak to my neighbors about why Hillary is my champion.
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We got 5 commits this afternoon in Mason City! cc @HillaryforIA @smarino92
Negative temperatures. Positive attitudes. Ready to hit the doors for @HillaryClinton here in Cedar Falls!
I wouldn't knock doors in -20 wind chills for just any candidate. However, I will do it for @HillaryClinton since she's fighting hard for me
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Bill Clinton stumps for Hillary in Iowa
Bill Clinton stumps for Hillary Clinton in Iowa
CEDAR RAPIDS Former President Bill Clinton hit the trail for Hillary Clinton in Iowa on Thursday, weaving in personal anecdotes from his time spent campaigning in the state and touting the character and experience of his wife. "She never touched anything she didn't make better," Clinton said. "She's the best change-maker I ever saw."
Among other stories, he detailed how his wife put "her neck on the line" to go undercover to investigate segregated schools in Alabama, highlighted the work she did as secretary of state -- especially the nuclear deal she made with Russia -- and lauded her performance in the 11-hour Benghazi hearing.
"That is what you need in a president," Clinton said of the hearing. "strong enough to stand their ground and wise enough to seek common ground."
...
Reminiscing on his own campaign days spent in Iowa, Clinton reflected on meeting a young white woman who had adopted a black HIV-positive child when he campaigned in the state in August of 1992. That young child "miraculously survived," and he called the story is "a symbol of how we can all do better." That meeting happened 12 years ago -- but the impact Bill Clinton made on individual Iowans has not been forgotten.
Jimya Poisel, the young HIV-positive child Clinton spoke about, was in the audience on Thursday. How did she feel when Clinton told her story? "Proud," Poisel said. "Normally when people talk about HIV it is a bad thing, but he makes it feel like it is not just a bad thing." She had traveled to the White House a few times with her mother when the Clintons were there, but she had never heard Clinton publicly talk about her. Though still HIV positive, 26-yr old Poisel feels good -- working as a waitress, raising her healthy eight-year old son -- and says she will caucus for Hillary.
Had a great time in Cedar Rapids and Dubuque—looking forward to coming back to Iowa next week!
After campaigning in New Hampshire on Friday Lena Dunham travelled to Iowa for several events on Saturday and Sunday.
.@lenadunham in Iowa City today: dressed for success. #HillYes
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"Get involved! Exercise your right! It's something I wish I had done sooner." –@lenadunham in Des Moines
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Tony Goldwyn stumping for Hillary in Iowa this weekend
In IA, actor Tony Goldwyn "Republicans are going to try and shut us down because @HillaryClinton terrifies them"
RETWEET to stand with @tonygoldwyn and Hillary! (photo taken tonight at a Des Moines organizing event) #ImWithHer
Jamie Lee Curtis tweeted that she’ll be headed to Iowa to campaign for Hillary in Iowa:
New Year. New President! I'm coming to Iowa to join in the chorus! #ImWithHer #hillyes @HillaryClinton
POLLS
Let’s look at poll comparisons, to see if we can detect similarities between 2008 and 2016, or major differences.
IOWA
Today marks 3 weeks to go until the Iowa caucus. Using the time frame from 11/18 through 12/18, which was between 45 days and 15 days before the Iowa caucus of 2008, we see that Obama topped the Iowa polls 9 times, Hillary topped them 5 times, and twice there was an exact tie in the poll.
2008
Poll Date Sample Obama Clinton Edwards Biden Richardson
So, when it comes to Iowa, Obama had started winning over the polls by mid November, a good 45 days before the caucus. By the equivalent day in 2008, 22 days before the Iowa caucus, Obama was actually ahead of Hillary in the aggregate.
Current Polling, as of 1/10/2016
There hasn’t been a poll in Iowa that hasn’t shown a Hillary lead since early September. 25 polls in a row have shown a Hillary lead, most with substantial margins. The current poll aggregate in the RCP aggregator shows a Hillary lead of almost 13%. The Pollster.com aggregator, which includes more polling firms, shows Hillary ahead by 15%.
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VOTER REGISTRATION NUMBERS
Let’s compare voter registration numbers for both cycles. The theory goes that Bernie has excited a lot of people who are not Democrats, who have never voted before, young people who are just now coming of voting age. To test that theory, one would expect that “fresh blood" to be reflected in new voter registrations, specifically signed up to vote for Bernie Sanders. A wave of new voters would show in new Democratic voter registrations, as only registered Democrats may vote in the Iowa Democratic caucus. On 1-4-2016 the Iowa Secretary of State website published its January 2016 registration numbers (taken from all of December), so we are as up to date on voter registration numbers for Iowa as we can possibly be.
2015/2016
sos.iowa.gov/...
JANUARY 2015 |
603,469
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IOWA DEMOCRATIC VOTER REGISTRATION
FEBRUARY 2015 |
593,886
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MARCH 2015 |
593,484
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APRIL 2015 |
590,046 |
MAY 2015 |
585,178 |
JUNE 2015
|
584,737 |
JULY 2015 |
584,503 |
AUGUST 2015 |
584,404 |
SEPTEMBER 2015 |
583,621 |
OCTOBER 2015 |
583,784 |
NOVEMBER 2015 |
583,913 |
DECEMBER 2015 |
584,307 |
JANUARY 2016 |
584,111 |
As of 1-4-2016 there were 584,111 active registered Democrats in Iowa. While representing a 20k loss compared to 12 months ago, the numbers haven’t moved much, just went marginally lower, since about June of 2015. As of yet no sign of any new Democratic voter registrations as part of a Bernie wave election.
Unless there is a huge wave of last-minute Democratic registrations (Iowa allows registration on the day of the caucus) it looks like the voters that are going to attend the Iowa caucus are from already registered, established Democratic voters, which would suggests no wave for Bernie in Iowa. But, there is a little time left to get it going. I am a bit skeptical about the “wave” developing, only because I find it hard to believe that many excited Bernie supporters would not have already registered, are waiting until the very last few days.
2007/2008
JANUARY 2007 |
609,633
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IOWA DEMOCRATIC VOTER REGISTRATION
FEBRUARY 2007 |
608,363
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MARCH 2007 |
600,531
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APRIL 2007 |
597,178 |
MAY 2007 |
596,259 |
JUNE 2007
|
596,737 |
JULY 2007 |
596,396 |
AUGUST 2007 |
596,602 |
SEPTEMBER 2007 |
598,186 |
OCTOBER 2007 |
598,865 |
NOVEMBER 2007 |
600,572 |
DECEMBER 2007 |
602,947 |
JANUARY 2008 |
606,209 |
It appears that starting in September of 2007 there was a noticeable uptick in new voter registrations from the level of registrations that had been prevailing from April 2007 forward. A steady increase in new Democratic voter registration, that suggested good things for Obama to come in the 2008 Iowa caucus.