All hell broke loose this week on the Democratic side as the polls tightened, the endorsement war heated up among progressive groups, and Bernie Sanders stepped in it, specifically referring to two of the groups that endorsed Hillary Clinton—Planned Parenthood and the LGBT advocacy group the Human Rights Campaign—as part of the "political establishment." These two progressive organizations are not equivalent in the least and Sanders' indictment of them (which he eventually walked back Friday) as part of the Beltway's political machine has very different implications for the closing weeks of the race before Iowa.
The Human Rights Campaign (HRC) grew out of a political action committee founded in 1980 originally called the Human Rights Campaign Fund. It was inherently a political entity, giving money to candidates to advance the cause of gay rights. Its leaders worked hard to promote it as a powerful symbol of the gay community within the Beltway that would ideally become a part of Washington's political establishment. In all likelihood, the organization's leadership was tickled pink to be officially labeled as such by Sanders only to the have one of the most enduring figures in modern-day politics—the Clintons—come to its defense.
As the nation's largest LGBT organization, HRC has become representative enough of the movement for many mainstream Americans to be familiar with it, its iconic equality logo, and the struggle it generally represents. Still, the organization does not hold the same resonance with as broad an audience as Planned Parenthood does through the communities of women it has provided critical health services to nationwide for 100 years now.
The possible nationwide LGBTQ constituency stirred one way or the other by Sanders' comments is probably in the single digits to the best of our knowledge, since the number of voters who self-identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual, or transgender typically sits at around 3.5 to 5 percent in polls.
But the potential female constituency with an interest in Planned Parenthood rests at nearly 51 percent of the nation. No, not all women are fans of Planned Parenthood, just like not all LGBTQ Americans are fans of HRC. But the organization's sustained hands-on work with women across the country even as it comes under constant attack, both political and literal, has earned it a certain sainthood status among a great many women—across all races and varying socio-economic strata. It is the very reason that Planned Parenthood recently polled higher than any other political entity or leader in the nation, registering an overall favorable rating of 45 percent with Americans (Trump, 26 percent; GOP, 28 percent; Democrats, 38 percent; Supreme Court, 39 percent; National Rifle Association, 43 percent).
In some ways, inside the Beltway, Planned Parenthood's leadership could be viewed as a part of the political establishment. Cecile Richards is the daughter of the inimitable Ann Richards, the late pithy and beloved former Democratic governor of Texas. As a keynote speaker at the 1988 Democratic Convention, the elder Richards famously quipped that George H.W. Bush couldn't help himself for never taking an interest in child care or education. "Poor George,” she drawled. “He can't help it — he was born with a silver foot in his mouth." It doesn't get much more political than that, which is not a knock on her or her daugther. It is simply to say that Cecile Richards has both the grooming and the connections to be viewed by some as part of the political establishment.
That said, her organization and the constituency it services is anything but establishment and the optics of Bernie Sanders painting it as such were terrible politically. So even if some people inside the Beltway privately agree with Sanders' assessment, outside the Beltway—in places like Iowa, where abortions services are under constant attack by Republicans and the religious right—his assertion was deeply offensive.
Meanwhile, the Democratic race has been closing, especially in Iowa, where Clinton's once double-digit lead over Sanders has dwindled considerably, with some polls showing Sanders in the lead. The Ann Selzer/Des Moines Register poll attributes the trend mainly to a rise in "undecideds."
The tightening race is not because of a surge in support for Sanders, the poll indicates. His support has risen just 1 percentage point in the past month. But Clinton has seen her support slide from 48 percent to 42 percent. The big shift has been in the number of likely Democratic caucusgoers who say they are undecided or who plan to stand up for “uncommitted.” Fourteen percent now say that, up from 8 percent a month ago.
What's hard to know is which demographic groups among the undecideds are most up for grabs.
The conventional wisdom seems to be that if Sanders loses Iowa, even if he wins New Hampshire, he's going to have a tough time succeeding in the primaries that follow. However, if he wins Iowa outright and also takes New Hampshire, perhaps there's more of a race to be had. As a general rule, I don’t place much faith in CW, but that at least makes Iowa super interesting.
So the question is whether this week’s dustup will have any effect heading into the Feb. 1 Iowa caucus. Will Bernie's assertion about Planned Parenthood hurt him with his younger cohort of true believers? Probably not. Nor will he take much of a hit with his male supporters.
But he does have the potential to lose his shot at wooing some women away from Clinton. This latest “squirmish” (to quote the ever quotable Sarah Palin) happened too recently to know whether it’s had much effect. But if there were to be a late-stage development that could stem the clear build in momentum for Sanders in these final weeks, it would likely be a spontaneous misstep like this.
Along with her usual arguments about competency and electability, Clinton certainly pressed the "establishment" point this week.
As for Sanders, after making the argument for several days, he finally backtracked on Friday, the 43rd anniversary of Roe v. Wade.
Sanders told MSNBC's Kasie Hunt that organizations like Planned Parenthood and HRC, which endorsed former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for President, are not part of the political establishment.
"No. They aren’t. They’re standing up and fighting the important fights that have to be fought," he told MSNBC.
And he also made some promises while campaigning at a New Hampshire high school.
The first question he took from the crowd of Concord students was about how he would support Planned Parenthood if elected president.
"I would expand funding for Planned Parenthood," he said to cheers.