sholmberg has posted a diary, http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/1/26/1475539/-Hillary-with-Massive-Lead-Nationwide
about the latest CNN/ORC poll. As sholmberg excitedly points out, it shows Hillary Clinton leading Bernie on several measures.
But I’m not sure why sholmberg thinks that a 4% enthusiasm gap is “massive”. I don’t know what sholmberg’s yardstick for “massiveness” is, but 4% is well within the poll's 4.5% margin of error.
And when you add “satisfied but not enthusiastic” to “enthusiastic”, among Democrats, Mrs. Clinton’s total is 75%, and Bernie’s is 72%. The supposedly “unelectable socialist” is an at least satisfactory nominee in the general election for almost three-quarters of Democrats polled.
And again, the difference between Bernie and Mrs. Clinton on this measure is well within the 4.5% margin of error.
But taking a closer look at the poll shows it’s less of a massive achievement for Mrs. Clinton’s camp, and much more a massive warning.
Look at the trends:
- In April, 58% would have been enthusiastic if Hillary were the nominee.
- In September, that number drops to 43%
- In the current poll, it’s at 37%
- So, enthusiasm for Hillary has declined 21%.
Meanwhile,
- In April, 11% would have been enthusiastic if Bernie were the nominee.
- In September, that number rises to 31%.
- In the current poll, it’s at 33%
- So, enthusiasm for Bernie rose 22%.
But wait, there’s more!!
- On “who can best handle the economy”, Hillary has risen 8 percentage points since April…
- And in the same period, Bernie has risen 12 points.
- Bernie’s moving one-and-a-half times faster!
- On foreign policy, Hillary has risen 8 points since April…
- And in the same period, Bernie has risen 17 points.
- Bernie’s moving over twice as fast!
- On health care, Hillary has risen 2 points since October…
- And in the same period, Bernie has risen 13 percentage points.
- Bernie’s moving six-and-a-half times faster!
- But surely it’s a different story on gun policy. There, Mrs. Clinton has risen 10 points since October…
- And in the same period, Bernie has risen 15 percentage points.
- Still, The Bern is one-and-a-half times faster!
In June, 49% of Democrats said Mrs. Clinton best represented their views. Only 20% said the same about Bernie Sanders.
Today, just 48% of Democrats will still say Mrs. Clinton best represents them…
But 42% say they are best represented by Bernie.
While Mrs. Clinton declined by 1 point, Bernie rose by 22%.
By all measures, Bernie is out-pacing Mrs. Clinton. It’s a good thing for her the Iowa Caucus is only a week away.
