Full disclosure — I voted for Obama in the Virginia primary and was proud to do so. That said, there were many weeks during which I was uncertain about Obama. I wasn’t sure he’d be ready for the onslaught of Republican opposition. And I was concerned that his promise of change would be undercut by the realities of governing.
I remain proud of my vote in 08 for Obama and my efforts to help elect him. But there have been many times over the last eight years when I wondered if Hillary would have been better prepared to deal with the reality of the relentless GOP attacks.
As we Democrats prepare ourselves for this next election, I think there is value in imagining where we’d be if we had flipped it in 08 and put Hillary at the top of the ticket with Obama as VP.
First and foremost, I have ZERO doubt a Clinton-Obama ticket would have won. And perhaps by a slightly wider margin, at least in terms of popular vote margin. I am not going to look for the links, but there were many analyses showing that the 08 electorate would have been at least as big with Clinton at the top of the ticket, and may have been stronger in Appalachia and the South.
I also think the first half of the first term would have looked very similar. I think we would have pushed Dodd-Frank. I think we would have pushed for a stimulus bill along the lines of what we secured. I think Hillary would have taken out Bin Laden. I think we would have bailed out Detroit. And I think something very similar to the ACA would have passed in a very similar way.
I think there would still have been a TEA Party backlash, but I don’t think it would have been as insane or as big. I do think a big part of that is white men feeling like the world is just getting out of control. And I think the Clinton brand would have reassured some segments of these haters.
I think Hillary makes a bigger push for immigration reform and perhaps a bigger push for family and medical leave support. Maybe she secures more support for minimum wage and finds more support for infrastructure spending.
On foreign policy, I think we see the biggest differences between Obama and Clinton. I think Clinton pursues the Iranian agreement with as much focus as Obama and perhaps sends Secretary of State Biden to as many negotiations to tamp down Middle East violence. But I think Hillary leaves some combat forces in Iraq, which probably irritates we lefties, but also probably does more to undercut the rise of ISIS.
I don’t think things turn out much differently in Libya or Egypt. But I think American forces are more engaged, for better or worse. Not sure about Syria — we may well have gone to war in Syria.
I think torture is gone and I think Guantanamo is still open. I’m just not sure what else is different. It’s really hard to say if we would have made more progress or less on global warming, gun control, and criminal justice reform. I think marriage equality plays out almost exactly the same way.
However the last eight years would have turned out (and they definitely would have been eight years — no way Romney beats Hillary), we would right now be running with Obama as the unequivocal heir apparent and with the progressive wing salivating over our chance to make an even bigger difference this election.
Not sure what this says this time around. I think if Hillary wins the nomination, she can credibly select a Castro or a Booker, maybe even a Deval Patrick, who would all be exciting representatives of the next generation of Democratic leaders to keep pushing forward on our issues. I think Booker may be off the list simply because of his ties to Wall Street, and Clinton may have to balance that part of her resume out when it comes to progressive voters. Either way, I think Warren would play a role in her administration. Treasury Secretary? We’ll see.
I honestly have no idea whom Bernie would select for a running mate. He probably would have to pick someone close to the Clinton team in a gesture to party unity. But it would have to be someone with progressive credentials to reinforce the message. And I think he needs someone with some foreign policy experience to reassure voters who may not be convinced of his experience in this area. There aren’t many people in that Venn diagram. Maybe Warren, but that would be a gigantic risk given her lack of foreign policy experience. Maybe Bill Richardson? Not sure.
I realize this entire post is a massive hypothetical. But as a thought experiment, I think it’s instructive in our assessment of this primary choice.