So there is going to be a snow storm in Iowa on caucus night. The weather channel isn’t predicting significant snow in Des Moines until after midnight, the same is true of Fort Dodge in the Western part of the state. So it may or may not be a factor in the election.
Will the snow impact turn-out, keeping it low? Conventional wisdom is high turn-out good for Bernie, low turn-out good for Hillary. As I see it, this is very myopic. What really matters is who turns out. Who turns out could very well be determined by where they live.
If a person lives in one of the larger urban areas, one can expect that road conditions will be markedly better than in rural areas. There will be more resources in urban areas to deal with the snow than in rural areas. Also, the conditions in rural areas where there are open spaces will be naturally in worst condition than in urban areas where there are fewer wide open areas for the snow to blow through.
So how is this pertinent. Well, from everything I have read, the more urban areas of the Eastern side of the state is Bernie territory, and the more rural areas are Hillary territory. Although I must say some of the pics from Fort Dodge and other Western Bernie rallies have been impressive.
Also, motivation is huge. Who is going to be more motivated to go out into the bad weather to vote? We just don’t know. But having been born and raised in rural Indiana, I can tell you that unless the snow is really coming down at a huge rate, Iowans are not going to be deterred regardless of who they support. 3 to 5 inches is nothing. Especially over a period of time.
There is one group that could be deterred by bad weather and that is older people who have mobility issues. A broken hip just to vote might not be something some want to risk for obvious reasons. And the polls have indicated that the older demos are the strongest for Hillary so this could be a factor.
The point is we don’t know what a storm will do to the vote so stay calm and keep your pearls in their drawer, i.e. no clutching.