Why Al Gore Really Lost* in 2000

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Sunday January 03, 2016 · 10:52 PM PST

2016/01/03 · 22:52

all states have 3 electoral votes at minimum...

As Donald Trump starts bringing up Bill Clinton’s personal indiscretions with a White House intern that Hillary called a “loony toon” and also brings up discredited allegations from GOP operatives straight out of the Arkansas Project and Richie Mellon Scaife’s playbook, some here on Daily Kos seem to be doing Trump’s job for him by giving credence to the discredited allegations, or failing to see that the Paula Jones settlement was not any sort of guilty anything, but a way to stop the witch hunt from going further. Other people have even brought up the cattle futures non-scandal, Whitewater, etc. as some sort of moral failing of the Clintons, when those were found to be baseless accusations too.

Not too surprisingly, this stuff usually comes from people who aren’t voting for Hillary in the primary (tho not all), or some who won’t do their patriotic duty and vote for her if she is the nominee.

One of the common themes is that the Monica incident and bullshit impeachment “elected George W. Bush.” While it can be argued that those things didn’t help Gore and didn’t hurt Bush, it is dishonest, ignorant, and disingenuous to cite that as the overriding reason Gore didn’t make it to the White House, or that was the only reason he didn’t make it to the White House. Another BS reason given that Gore didn’t make the WH is that the “Clinton machine” was “too busy electing HRC to the Senate.” Bullshit.

Vice President Al Gore lost* the electoral vote in 2000 by 3, 267-271, before the faithless elector which brought his “official” count to 266. (this little factoid people miss but considering the closeness, it is extremely important to get that right!!!!) You could call winning the most votes nationally but “losing” the electoral college bad luck: only 4 out of 57 (~7%) elections in our history had such a result, the other 53 (or 93%) have popular vote winners corresponding to electoral vote winners. But you could also call it the result of many, many things, aside from bad luck, and aside from Monica Lewinsky.

Here is the truth:

The Horserace

Why did GW Bush ascend to the White House? Several reasons: yes, it is true that Monica was a factor. The Monica Lewinky “scandal” was obviously orchestrated by the GOP to the nullify the benefits of the strong job approval of Clinton/Gore. However, GW Bush was not some run of the mill Bob Dole or even his father in 1992. He wasn’t likely to have been easy to beat independent of the Lewinsky thing. As far back as 1997 (before Monica came out), it was clear that George W. Bush was the only Republican who could escape the stigma of Newt and other Washington GOPers and get swing voters.

CNN/Time Poll, Sep. 10-11, 1997

Presidential Choice in 2000

Bush
Gore 44%
43

Sampling error: +/-3.5% pts

Presidential Choice in 2000

Gore
Quayle 54%
31

Sampling error: +/-3.5% pts

Presidential Choice in 2000

Gore
Kemp 47%
37

Sampling error: +/-3.5% pts

Additionally, George W. Bush had something no Republican today has: both the grassroots and establishment in his corner. Unlike his primary competition, he was an “outsider” who would “change the tone of Washington,” who didn’t fit the “Washington elite” ways. Another reason W. was inherently a strong candidate: that fake Texan thing and being dumbed down (he’s much smarter than he let on, purposefully) allowed him to come off as a “regular guy,” and coupled with Gore’s gaffes, gave exit poll results which showed Bush was seen as “honest” and good for “moral values.”

Inventing the Candidate

Al Gore was and is a nice guy. He’s an accomplished environmental hero who should be honored across the party. However, as a Presidential aspirant, he did not help himself. He was a gaffe machine who should’ve known that his comments on his later-Webby-winning role in helping the bring about the internet would’ve been taken outta context or how the “Love Story” thing would’ve been spun. The media was hostile but Gore seemed to sit back and take it. Gore also ran mediocre ads.

He didn’t run on his admin’s economic record, even tho he was gonna be linked to Clinton either way. It wouldn’t have been that hard: see what a media savvy guy does:

Clinton nodded at that reality by never mentioning Obama's name. "The administration in Washington doesn't get as much credit as they deserve for preventing a great depression," he said, in a rare moment of recognition that a Democrat occupied the White House.

Gore went to Harvard (he’s pretty smart). He should’ve been able to figure out where and how to tout his record: Bush Sr. managed to win in 1988, even out of the Iran-Contra bit!

Also, this;

YouTube Video

Gore had every right to be annoyed with Bush’s pandering to low information voters with the fake Texas redneck thing, but Gore should’ve known better than to show it. Bush’s charade was best summed up by Jon Stewart (this clip is awesome: WATCH IT!!)

The End Result

In November 2000, did win the most votes nationally, 48.4%-47.9% with Nader taking 2.74%, and other 3rd parties getting the remainder. People here have sought to figure out if Nader “decided” the election. While it is true that Nader’s vote came more from Gore than Bush per exit polls, fact is Gore’s overall strategy sucked. Here are the largest reasons Al Gore never got to be President.

1. He bet the farm on three card monte: How the hell did Gore think he was gonna win a contest in Florida, a state controlled (a deck rigged against him) by his opponent’s brother as governor and national campaign manager Katherine Harris as the vote-counter, aka “Secretary of State?” Florida would’ve been a good headfake against Bush, but only a headfake (as in get him to spend time and money there but don’t actually expect to win!) I know in reality, Gore won the most votes there, but if history should’ve taught him anything, its that even in America vote counting can get dirty.

2. His electoral college strategy was awful: Gore could’ve won any other state at 267 electoral votes, as all states have 3 minimum, and have ascended to the White House! A little more time and/or in New Hampshire, Tennessee, Ohio, West Virginia might have saved us from Bush. New Hampshire had a Democratic governor in 2000: Jeanne Shaheen.

Another spectacular example is his West Virginia non-strategy: Carter won it twice (even in 1980), Dukakis won it, and Bill Clinton won it twice by double digit margins! Why didn’t Al Gore?

And in 2000, that shift in the state—from blue to purple—caught Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore off guard. Former West Virginia Democratic Party chairman George Carenbauer, who worked on Bill Clinton’s West Virginia presidential campaigns, said Gore’s team ignored warnings that they needed to fight to win the Mountain State.

“I think they spent $300 there or something,” he says with a laugh.

George W. Bush and his strategists saw polling that indicated that the state could be in play, so they outspent the vice president there, and they won it. Bush won the presidential election by 5 Electoral College votes, the same number allotted to West Virginia. (the writer missed the faithless elector, but still)

3. Bush did much better with younger voters than the previous 2 GOP nominees: Gore and Bush tied with 18-29 year olds; Bill Clinton beat Dole by 19 in that age group and beat Bush Sr. by 13 in that age group. Why? Well Gore didn’t make much of an effort to reach out to younger voters to start. Additionally, Tipper Gore’s PMRC bit but also Lieberman’s then-recent Mortal Kombat fight allowed younger people to forget the GOP’s “family values” stuff and buy the anti-”big government” line.

There you have it. The truth about the 2000 election. A decade and a half later: why does it matter? Because once again, anti-Clinton myth seems too often to trump fact and truth.

======================

*NB: I know full well the reality of what happened in Florida 2000 & the Supreme Court, but this diary is about other reasons he was denied the White House.

Monday, Jan 4, 2016 · 8:11:20 AM +00:00 · DerekJack30

PS: Since when do these “Clintons are corporate neo-con DLCer” types love Al Gore, who was no less of one of those himself? Because of some sort of martyr complex?

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Why Al Gore Really Lost* in 2000

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