FL-03 is PVI:R+9 and rated solid R by Cook Political Report. Its current representative is Tea-Partier Ted Yoho. However, a combination of redistricting due to state GOP infighting and a strong Democratic recruit may make FL-03 the top sleeper House race of the year.
GOP controls governorship, state senate and house. However, this didn’t stop them from fighting each other on redrawing the congressional map after 2010 census. The state senate and house each proposed their own maps but would not yield to each other due to conflicting ambitions of the players. At the end, the state Supreme Court adopted a third map that became the final map. FL-03 in this final map is very different than the FL-03 that elected the Tea-Partier Ted Yoho.
The old FL-03 contained only half of Alachua county, including the western half of the city of Gainesville, leaving out most of University of Florida campus and the African American neighborhood in east Gainesville. Ted Yoho was able to garner sufficient support from rural northern Florida to offset Democratic votes from Gainesville and win easy elections in 2012 and 2014.
However, the new FL-03 is very different. It now contains all of Gainesville, covering the entire University of Florida campus and the African American domintated east Gainesville. The PVI:R+9 rating is probably not correct for the new map.
The Democratic candidate Ken McGurn is a strong candidate. He is a local developer who has been pivotal in the revitalization of downtown Gainesville, and is well-liked in the local community. He also an University of Florida alumnus and a Vietnam veteran. McGurn’s campaign has generated a lot of local buzz. Even though there has not been any poll of the race, people are excited about his campaign and are confident that he can win this race.
McGurn’s website