This has to give Republicans some agita.
Analysts have been saying for a while now that the “generic” ballot has to favor Democrats by about 7 or 8 points for them to have a chance to accomplish the unthinkable, and re-take the House, making Nancy Pelosi once more the Speaker. In other words, voters have to favor Democrats nationally by about 7 or 8 percent in order for Democrats to overcome Republican gerrymandering and win an actual majority of House seats.
Well, a recent NBC/WSJ poll shows Democrats with a 7-point lead in the generic ballot. Voters prefer Democratic control of Congress to Republican control by 47 to 42 percent. Much can happen between now and election day, of course. But this has to be worrying.
To be fair, other polls seem to indicate Republicans have a better chance than the NBC/WSJ poll indicates. That one poll may also be an outlier. So let’s look at still another national poll. A new Global Strategy Group survey finds Congressional Democrats leading in the generic ballot by an identical seven points, also 49 to 42. That’s got to leave a mark.
The bad news for Republicans just gets worse when you dig deeper, especially when you consider the guy at the top of the ticket.
Let’s look at how Trump is affecting Congressional races. That same GSG survey asked how voters feel about Republicans who support Trump—and about Republicans who don’t support Trump. Here’s where it gets really interesting. From the GSG press release (emphasis mine):
... Our survey tested head-to-head ballots, pitting a generic Democrat against three types of Republican candidates – including those who have withdrawn their support and those who have stuck by Trump since the [Access Hollywood] videos.
- Against a Republican “who continues to endorse Donald Trump” the Democratic margin moves from a 7-point advantage to a 12-point advantage.
- Similarly, against a “Republican candidate who had supported Trump previously, but just withdrew their support” the Democratic margin moves from a 7-point advantage to a 12-point advantage.
- Finally, even against a “Republican candidate who never formally endorsed Donald Trump and now says they won’t vote for him” the Democratic margin moves from a 7-point advantage to a 10-point advantage.
It doesn’t matter if a Republican who previously endorsed Trump now renounces him or not. Anyone who endorsed Trump at any time loses five points of support. Even a Republican who never endorsed Trump and now renounces him still loses three points. The only way that seven-point advantage Democrats have over Republicans doesn’t grow is if the Republican never endorsed Trump and now doesn’t take a stand at all:
Voters overwhelmingly believe that Republicans who previously failed to stand up to Trump, but are now withdrawing their support, made that decision because of politics
Voters have caught on to how Republicans never actually take a stand because of “principle”. They are all moved, solely and only, by partisan gamesmanship, and voters know it:
- 61% of voters say “that these Republicans lack character and integrity and are now only withdrawing their support for Trump because it’s politically popular to do so”
- Meanwhile, just 39% of voters say “That these Republicans are showing character and integrity for finally standing up to Donald Trump”
- This is especially true among Independent voters – 73% of whom say that Republicans are only doing this for political reasons
Gone are the days when Republicans can pretend to take the high ground, and be rewarded for their lies and machinations. Republicans nominated this bigot. Worse, they worked very hard for decades to create the environment in which an ignorant and odious sleezeball racist could be nominated by a major American political party.
These surveys, of course, are not predictive. They’re no more than a snapshot of a moment in time, like Nate Silver’s “nowcast”. Even so, they tell Republicans there’s a steep hill they have to climb, their propaganda isn’t working any more, and it is toxic in the extreme for their Party to be tied to the candidate the far right has always dreamed of.
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Added: For anyone still hesitant to call Trump a racist, or to compare him to Hitler, Mike Godwin—of Godwin’s Law—has voiced his opinion on it: