It's very possible that Trump's problems have cost Heck some support, both from people who are now backing Clinton and from Trump voters. Like New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte, Heck was in The Donald's corner until the instantly infamous "Access Hollywood" tape was released. Ayotte's decision to unendorse Trump doesn't yet appear to have helped or hurt her in the polls, but Nevada Republicans may be taking their anger out on Heck—something PPP's poll for the Cortez Masto campaign tried to argue.
Indeed, Heck recognizes that he's not in a great spot. On Monday, CNN released audio from a recent Heck fundraiser where the congressman admitted that his "worst fear" was that Trump's problems would depress GOP turnout. Heck also was recorded saying of Trump, "I want to support him, I really do. But he has got to change his tone and he's got to be—I don't want to make him into a politician or make him into the same thing he is running against—but he has got to realize he is not going to win this race by appealing to the 20 percent or 30 percent of the Republican base."
With Democratic Senate candidates relentlessly tying their opponents to Trump, there's a good chance that Heck's "I want to support him, I really do" line will make it into an ad. Heck might not want that quite so much.
The is the first poll we've seen in a little while, so we don't have a good sense for how on-target JMC is. Early polls showed Republican John Kennedy easily grabbing one of the two spots for the December runoff and Fleming far behind, but that was before the candidates began airing ads. This is also the first poll to show Democrat Foster Campbell decisively taking one of the two runoff spots.
What's more, Democrats have more money reserved in seven of those eight races, as you can see in the table below:
| State |
Democratic |
Republican |
| Florida |
$4.2 million |
$9.6 million |
| Indiana |
$7.0 million |
$4.3 million |
| Missouri |
$8.1 million |
$6.4 million |
| Nevada |
$12.5 million |
$12.2 million |
| New Hampshire |
$15.8 million |
$12.3 million |
| North Carolina |
$11.9 million |
$9.3 million |
| Pennsylvania |
$17.2 million |
$8.5 million |
| Wisconsin |
$4.0 million |
$1.9 million |
| Total: |
$80.7 million |
$64.5 million |
Republicans spent lots of money early, hoping to pound their opponents into oblivion before they could recover. For the most part, that didn't work, and now Democrats have a golden opportunity to turn Trump's last-minute implosion to their advantage. Indeed, they already are in placed like Pennsylvania and New Hampshire—tossup contests that could wind up tilting in the Democratic direction with a stubby orange finger on the scale.
The GOP is, of course, scrabbling to find more money, but with Trump causing serious dysphoria throughout the ranks of big-time donors, that won't be as easy as it's usually been in the past. In fact, to excuse the party's woeful finances, one NRSC spokesman resorted to a form of loserspeak so pitiful we don't even have a category for it:
"For the last two years all we heard from Harry Reid is how Republicans were outspending them. Breaking news folks, Democrats were lying and have trouble counting," NRSC spokeswoman Andrea Bozek said.
It's obviously a lot easier to count your money when you have so much less of it!
● Polls: Do pollsters dream of electric surveys?
● AZ-Sen: HighGround: John McCain (R-inc) 45, Ann Kirkpatrick (D) 35 (39-37 Clinton)
● IN-Sen: Lucid: Evan Bayh (D) 42, Todd Young (R) 39 (44-36 Trump)
● NC-Sen: CNN/ORC: Richard Burr (R-inc) 48, Deborah Ross (D) 47 (50-48 Clinton) (Aug.: 50-45 Burr)
● NC-Gov: CNN/ORC: Roy Cooper (D) 49, Pat McCrory (R-inc) 48 (50-48 Clinton) (Aug.: 52-46 Cooper)
● PA-Sen: Lucid: Pat Toomey (R-inc) 40, Katie McGinty (D) 39 (46-39 Clinton)
This is the first poll of the Arizona Senate race we've seen in a month, not counting a survey from the erratic Emerson College Polling Society. HighGround indicates that, while Hillary Clinton has a good chance to take the Grand Canyon State's 11 electoral votes, she won't have long enough coattails to sweep out John McCain.
Unfortunately, major outside groups on both sides have almost completely ignored the Arizona Senate race, so they're likely seeing similar things. Clinton's campaign announced on Monday that they would make a late play in Arizona, a state that they almost certainly don't need to win to pass 270, so perhaps they think they can give Kirkpatrick a boost. Still, the radio silence from the DSCC and Senate Majority PAC is discouraging.
This is the first time we've seen anything from the firm calling itself Lucid, or even polling from the New Orleans Times-Picayune outside of Louisiana. Both margins in their Senate polls look reasonable, though they have a lot of undecideds in both.
There is a noticeable gap between likely voters and registered voters in CNN/ORC's North Carolina survey. Among registered voters, Ross leads 49-46 and Clinton is up 48-43, 4 points better than what the likely voters show. Cooper's 49-47 edge with registered voters is, however, almost unchanged. In a midterm year, where Democratic turnout tends to disproportionately fall, this sort of gap would make more sense, but it seems a bit conservative in a presidential year after weeks of bad headlines for Donald Trump.
And indeed, according to early voting expert Michael McDonald, Tar Heel State Democrats are outpacing their 2012 totals with mail-in ballots so far while Republicans are lagging, another sign that CNN's likely voter screen could be too tight here. We'll find out in three weeks.
Gubernatorial:
● MT-Gov, MT-AL: Finally—finally!—with three weeks left to go before Election Day, we have our very first poll of Montana's gubernatorial race, courtesy of Mason-Dixon. The results show Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock edging out wealthy Republican businessman Greg Gianforte by a slim 47-45 margin, and indeed, both parties have been treating this like a close contest. According to the Center for Public Integrity, over 44,000 ads have been aired in this race alone, putting it second among gubernatorial races behind only the Missouri's, which has inflated numbers due to a hotly contested GOP primary (there were no meaningful primaries in Montana).
The same survey (which was taken after the release of Donald Trump's "Access Hollywood" tapes) also finds GOP Rep. Ryan Zinke leading Democrat Denise Juneau 53-40 in the race for Montana's lone congressional district. At the same time, Trump has a decent-sized 46-36 advantage over Hillary Clinton, though that's a bit tighter than Mitt Romney 55-42 win four years ago.
Yet it's nevertheless possible that this poll is a bit too red. Even Zinke's own internal, released less than two weeks ago, only gave him a 49-38 lead. When you see an independent survey that's even rosier a particular candidate than even his own private polling, there's a decent chance something is off. What's more, a poll Juneau found Zinke up just 45-42, so if the truth lies somewhere in between, then Mason-Dixon's results would definitely be too optimistic for the GOP.
And that, of course, would have an impact on the gubernatorial race as well. When we first launched our gubernatorial race ratings a year ago, we slotted this contest in as Lean Democratic, and we aren't inclined to change that now. We generally resist moving our ratings based on a single poll and are even more reluctant to do so when there's some evidence the numbers might be off-base.
And about those ads: Thanks in large part to Gianforte's personal wealth, Republicans have aired 64 percent of the total advertisements in this race to date. Until recently, Gianforte's ads have been positive and focused on his business background. However, Gianforte has recently been arguing that under Bullock, people can't find good paying jobs in Montana, and he's also accused the governor of turning his back on coal country; for months, the RGA has also tried to portray Bullock as a Clinton stooge. Bullock and the DGA, meanwhile, have portrayed Gianforte as an out-of-touch rich guy who's not even from Montana. Yet the fact that Bullock still has the edge despite a nearly two-to-one advertising advantage for his opponent speaks well of his position.
In addition, even if Trump carries Montana as expected, Bullock should still benefit from presidential-year turnout bringing more Democratic voters to the polls. Early voting has also already begun, meaning that if he is indeed trailing, Gianforte has more ground to make up and less time to make it up in. Of course, we'd still love to see more—much more—hard data, though this close to the election, we're unlikely to get our wish. But barring unexpected developments, we still think Bullock has the edge here.
● WV-Gov: Democrat Jim Justice is out with another poll from Global Strategy Group, and this time, he posts a 44-34 lead against Republican Bill Cole; 1996 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Charlotte Pritt, who is running as the candidate of the left-leaning Mountain Party this time, takes 8. (In a two-way race, Justice's lead is 51-39.) The same sample gives Donald Trump a 58-31 lead in West Virginia, showing that Justice is running far, far ahead of the top of the ticket. Cole, by contrast, has never led in a publicly released poll, and even a survey from the state GOP from last month found Justice ahead 44-42. However, in response to Justice's latest survey, Cole dropped a NMB Research internal showing the two candidates tied 39-39 (presidential numbers were not included).
As these numbers show, despite West Virginia's increasingly Republican bent in recent years, Justice may very well keep the governor's mansion blue. Notably, both of these latest polls were taken just after NPR reported that Justice still owes $15 million in taxes and fines across six states, but if the story is hurting him, it hasn't shown up in the polls yet. And it's possible that it just won't damage Justice at all. While Cole has been tying himself to Trump, it's Justice, a coal billionaire and the wealthiest man in the state, who seems to have the Trump appeal in this contest. Last month, Politico noted that both Trump and Justice both built up a similar cult of personality as populist billionaires. Just as Trump's notorious tax issues haven't noticeably harmed him in West Virginia, Justice's may not either.
And while Republicans have successfully argued in the past that West Virginia Democrats are helping Obama wage a "war on coal," Justice is a coal businessman who is a lot tougher to caricature. In fact, his connection to West Virginia's coal industry is likely a reason why his image as a benevolent billionaire appeals to so many Trump voters. Indeed, even national Republicans seem to think that Cole isn't a great investment: The Center for Public Integrity's ad tracker shows that the RGA has only spent $406,000 on broadcast ads as of Monday. Maybe polls like Cole's will convince them that this contest can still be saved, but until we learn otherwise, coal is still beating Cole.
House:
● CA-07: About a week and a half ago, Republican Scott Jones and his allies at the NRCC dropped a poll showing Jones leading Democratic Rep. Ami Bera 47-42, even though Hillary Clinton was taking this suburban Sacramento seat 43-39. The DCCC has now responded by releasing a survey from Tulchin Research gives Bera a 50-39 lead, while Clinton takes California's 7th District 50-33. Obama won 51-47 here, but this is an affluent suburban seat where Donald Trump is unlikely to play well.
The Jones poll was conducted after the first presidential debate, while Clinton's numbers began improving nationwide, but before the 2005 Trump tape was released and several women began publicly accusing him of sexual assault. By contrast, the D-Trip survey was in the field Oct. 10-12, just after the Trump tape leaked and the second presidential debate, but mostly before Trump's accusers surfaced. Tulchin's memo also includes two previously unreleased polls to argue that, while Bera has consistently led, his numbers have really improved recently. In July, Bera was up 47-43 while Clinton had a 45-41 edge; in September, Bera was ahead 48-45 as Clinton had a 43-40 advantage over Trump.
But right now, neither side is acting like Bera has anything like an 11-point lead. The DCCC has earmarked $1.2 million for this district, while the NRCC and their allies at the Congressional Leadership Fund have reserved almost $2 million. Both parties also have money reserved in the Sacramento media market that they can send either to this seat or to the 10th District, where Republican Rep. Jeff Denham is defending a competitive Modesto seat. While the DCCC recently sent some money to help Michael Eggman in the 10th, they also directed another $523,000 to aid Bera, so they certainly don't think this contest is in the bag.
● CA-36: While Obama carried California's Palm Springs-based 36th District just 51-48, this contest never emerged as much of a GOP target this cycle. Democratic Rep. Raul Ruiz pulled off a solid 54-46 win during the 2014 GOP wave, and Team Red had a tough time landing a credible candidate for 2016. State Sen. Jeff Stone eventually jumped in, but he's been a weak fundraiser, and he brought in just $85,000 from July to September.
National Republicans have reserved no air time to help Stone, nor have national Democrats invested anything to defend Ruiz. The incumbent has already demonstrated that he's a tough campaigner, and with both sides ignoring the underfunded Stone, Daily Kos Elections is moving this race from Likely to Safe Democratic.
● FL-18: McLaughlin & Associates is out with a survey for Republican Brian Mast giving him a 47-40 lead over Democrat Randy Perkins, even though Hillary Clinton has a 46-44 edge in this Treasure Coast district. (Republican Sen. Marco Rubio also has a 48-45 advantage over Democrat Patrick Murphy, who represents this seat in the House.) One month ago, McLaughlin released a poll showing Perkins up 41-40 even though Trump had a 46-40 lead.
McLaughlin has one of the worst reputations in the business; the NRCC even advised candidates against using them in 2014, though they've since hired the firm this cycle. However, Perkins has been on the receiving end of plenty of GOP spots arguing that he's profited off other people's misery through the disaster relief company he founded. Team Red has also run several ads highlighting Mast's service in Afghanistan, where he lost both his legs. Perkins has used his fortune to tie Mast to GOP extremists like ex-Rep. Allen West, who used to represent this area, but it may well be that the GOP's message is just more compelling.
A look at the outside money doesn't clear up the picture. The Democratic group House Majority PAC recently cut $475,000 in planned spending around the same time that the NRCC was adding $633,000. HMP may just be reluctant to send much-needed resources for a candidate who can freely write his own checks, though it's hard to say. We'll see if Team Blue drops better poll numbers for Perkins, or if McLaughlin gets to have the last word.
● IN-02: By all rights, GOP Rep. Jackie Walorski shouldn't have to worry about her re-election chances. After all, Mitt Romney carried Indiana's 2nd Congressional District by a healthy 56-42 margin four years ago, meaning it ought to be safely red—only we know it's not. And a key reason we know this is because Walorski has now felt it necessary to launch a new negative ad attacking her Democratic opponent, former South Bend police officer Lynn Coleman, which is not the kind of thing you do if you're certain of victory.
What's more, Walorski's spot is pitifully lame. It recycles generic hits about Obamacare that could have been copied and pasted from a hundred other weak GOP campaign ads, making it look as though Walorski hasn't even prepared much research on her opponent. She should have been ready, though: In her first campaign in 2012, Walorski squeaked out just a 49-48 win in what should have been an easy race. This is still difficult turf for any Democrat, but with Donald Trump helping to expand the playing field in unexpected ways, even a seat like this could wind up being competitive.
● MN-03: On behalf of KSTP, SurveyUSA is out with the first independent poll of this race, and it's not what Team Blue wants to see. Republican Rep. Erik Paulsen posts a 49-38 lead over Democrat Terri Bonoff, even though Hillary Clinton leads by a wide 48-35 margin here. Obama carried this seat just 50-49 in 2012, so it's certainly not good news for Bonoff if Paulsen still has a clear lead even though Donald Trump has cratered here.
A month ago, the DCCC released a poll showing Bonoff ahead 40-38. However, the D-Trip's allies at House Majority PAC evidently weren't convinced that this race was close, since they canceled their entire reservation a few weeks later. The DCCC still has $2.2 million earmarked for this seat, so they're not acting like Paulsen is dominating. However, national Republicans haven't committed much money to this race, though they still have millions reserved in the Twin Cities that they can direct here—or to two other competitive Minnesota races.
Unfortunately for Team Blue, Paulsen is a skilled fundraiser who began the race with a huge war chest, and he still has more than enough money to defend himself even without much help from national Republicans. The path to a Democratic House majority runs through tough incumbents like Paulsen, and if he's already convinced enough suburban voters that he's different than Donald Trump, Democrats don't have much time to change things.
● NY-21: The NRCC is out with an American Viewpoint poll giving Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik a huge 54-29 lead over Democrat Mike Derrick in this rural upstate seat, while Donald Trump has a much narrower 39-36 edge here. Obama carried this North Country seat 52-46, though Trump looked strong in upstate in the polls that were released before his grotesque "Access Hollywood" tape dropped.
For most of this cycle, this contest has looked as boring as this poll indicates it still is. However, Stefanik recently began airing negative ads against Derrick, and she even launched a spot encouraging progressive voters to choose Green Party nominee Mike Funiciello. (Funiciello takes 9 in this poll.) That's a lot of effort for a candidate who is supposedly ahead by 25 points. The pro-GOP Congressional Leadership Fund also recently reserved $500,000 here, another sign that Stefanik isn't as safe as this poll seemingly makes her look.
However, Derrick did not release any contradictory numbers, and his campaign's only response was to tell the The Post-Star that his internals show the race tightening. If Derrick does have data that shows him with a path to victory, it's in his best interest to release it to encourage national Democrats to help him. According to our ad reservations chart, Democrats haven't reserved anything here, and Stefanik has a huge financial edge. While Siena has been polling several competitive New York seats, they say they'll likely skip this one, so it's either a Democratic internal or bust.
● House: Donald Trump's implosion following his sexual-assault tape scandal has given downballot Democrats renewed optimism that the House might actually be in play, something that seemed like a pipe dream just a few months ago. In a new post, Stephen Wolf maps out what a possible Democratic majority might look like seat by seat. Using Daily Kos Elections' race ratings, he concludes that Democrats will have to flip several highly educated suburban seats that currently lean toward their Republican incumbents if Team Blue is to have any shot at capturing the majority in 2016.
Other Races:
● Richmond, VA Mayor: Thanks to a truly fucked up electoral system, scandal-tarred former state Del. Joe Morrissey could become mayor of Virginia's capital city with just a small plurality. We've documented Morrissey, a Democrat-turned independent-turned Democrat-turned independent, and his awful behavior before. Most seriously, Morrissey served a brief prison sentence for having sex with an underage girl who later became his wife. Morrissey now claims that the text messages that incriminated him were planted by a hacker, but investigators for the state bar recently submitted a court filing saying that he lied. You can't get much lower than that.
However, a poll for the local Chamber of Commerce from the Southeastern Institute of Research shows Morrissey leading former Venture Richmond Executive Director Jack Berry 20-17 in next month's election, with Levar Stoney, a well-funded ally of Gov. Terry McAuliffe, at 15. In almost any other city, the two candidates with the most votes would advance to a runoff, which Morrissey would probably lose. But Richmond requires mayoral candidate to win just a plurality of the vote in five of the nine city council districts to win without a runoff, and this poll shows Morrissey ahead in six of them. This poll sampled an average of 209 voters in each seat, so with a margin of error that huge, it's tough to know how close Morrissey truly is to his goal. Still, it's very possible that Morrissey's name recognition and small but loyal base could secure him an improbable victory.
Two other recent polls also show Morrissey taking a plurality of the vote, and a runoff is still possible. If that happens, though, the winner still isn't the candidate with the most votes, it's the candidate who wins a majority of the council districts. In other words, the next mayor of Richmond could win fewer votes than his opponent. We told you it was messed.
Grab Bag:
● Deaths: On Sunday, Clyde Holloway, a Louisiana Republican who served in the House for just six years but waged five unsuccessful campaigns to return, died at the age of 72. Holloway also played a bit part in the infamous 1991 gubernatorial election that resulted in a runoff between Democrat Edwin Edwards and ex-Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke.
Holloway ran two unmemorable campaigns for Congress in the 1980s, losing badly to members of the Long family in 1980 and 1985. But in 1986, he won a narrow victory in an open-seat race for the Alexandria-based 8th District against Faye Williams, a liberal African American. Holloway made unsubtle racist appeals during his campaign, saying things like, "I don't say Faye is a Communist. I don't even say she has a radical following. We just don't know," and, "I just believe she was sent in here to run for Congress. I don't know whether it was the Black Congressional Caucus who sent her to run, or the NAACP." Holloway then decisively beat Williams in a 1988 rematch and defeated future Democratic Rep. Cleo Fields in 1990.
Following this string of successes, Holloway jumped into the 1991 gubernatorial race. Gov. Buddy Roemer had only recently left the Democratic Party, and Louisiana Republicans had little loyalty to him. The state party establishment also didn't want to associate itself with state Rep. David Duke and his sordid past, instead endorsing Holloway. However, their support didn't translate into very many votes, and Holloway won less than 6 percent of the vote in the jungle primary. Once and future Democratic Gov. Edwin Edwards decisively defeated Duke in the runoff, though both finalists would eventually serve time in prison.
Holloway soon had other worries. Redistricting threw him into the same Baton Rouge-area House seat as fellow GOP Rep. Richard Baker, and Holloway lost the runoff in 1992 by just a 51-49 margin. Holloway soon began his quest to return to the House, a feat he was never quite able to pull off. He first moved to the Lafayette area but lost a 1994 race to Democratic incumbent Jimmy Hayes 53-40. Mid-decade redistricting soon hit Louisiana, and in 1996, Holloway ran for a new Alexandria seat that included part of his old base, but he narrowly failed to make the runoff. The seat opened up again in 2002, and Holloway once again narrowly missed the runoff.
The next year, Holloway ran for lieutenant governor, but lost 53-19 to Democrat Mitch Landrieu, who later became mayor of New Orleans. Holloway ended his electoral losing streak in 2009 when he won a spot on the state Public Service Commission, but he didn't give up trying to return to Congress. In 2013, Holloway ran for the 5th District, which currently includes part of his old seat, but took fourth place. Holloway launched his fifth and final attempt to return to D.C. in 2014 after incumbent Republican Vance McAllister was caught in an extramarital affair. But he managed only a distant fifth place, behind even McAllister. In late July, a few months before his death, Holloway announced that he would not seek re-election to the Public Service Commission.
● Downballot: In a call with reporters on Monday, Hillary Clinton's campaign manager, Robby Mook, said it would spend $6 million on direct mail and digital ads in seven swing states that also host potentially competitive Senate contests. But even more interestingly, Mook said Clinton would send $1 million apiece in Missouri and Indiana—states that Clinton is very unlikely to win but that are both hosting hotly contested battles for both Senate and governor. In addition, Clinton is directing $250,000 toward Maine's and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional Districts, which each award their electoral votes individually and which also both host competitive House races.
These aren't huge sums for a campaign that's spent hundreds of millions of dollars, but they could nevertheless make an important difference in downballot contests, and they also show that Clinton must be feeling pretty confident about her chances against Donald Trump if she's willing to spare some cash for the rest of the party. And last week, the main super PAC supporting Clinton, Priorities USA, reportedly said that it, too, would start directing some of its efforts toward Senate contests, though so far, we've yet to see any tangible action taken in that direction. If they do follow through, though, it goes without saying that that would be a huge help to Democrats.
Ad Roundup:
● FL-Sen: Democrat Patrick Murphy features an Orlando mass shooting victim's mother blasting Republican Sen. Marco Rubio for doing nothing to fight gun violence.
● IN-Sen: AFSCME shows a laid-off manufacturing worker attacking Republican Todd Young for standing with companies that outsource jobs.
● NC-Sen: On behalf of Republican Sen. Richard Burr, the widow of a fallen soldier attacks Democrat Deborah Ross for supporting burning the American flag; in reality Ross merely opposes unconstitutional efforts to make flag-burning illegal. The narrator also employs other common Republican lines of attack like Ross's support for the Iran nuclear deal to essentially argue Ross hates America.
● NH-Sen: The DSCC hits Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte for various votes that would privatize, cut, and raise the retirement age for Social Security and Medicare.
● NV-Sen: Republican Joe Heck calls Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto "the most corrupt attorney general in Nevada history" who put serving Harry Reid ahead of competently doing her job. The NRSC similarly tries to paint Cortez Masto as a corrupt politician in the pocket of special interests.
● PA-Sen: Senate Majority PAC links Republican Sen. Pat Toomey to Donald Trump on banning abortion, playing a clip where Trump says there has to be some form of punishment for women, followed by Toomey saying there need to be penalties for the doctors who perform abortions. The DSCC skewers Toomey for voting against regulations on banks and Wall Street that protect everyday Americans while himself having a large ownership stake in a bank. The Club for Growth calls Democrat Katie McGinty a corrupt insider who wants to raise taxes for her own personal benefit.
● WI-Sen: Republican Sen. Ron Johnson portrays several supposedly regular folks praising him for not being your average politician, playing up his business background. In one particular bit of chutzpah, they note he actually took a pay cut to become a senator. That's one way to spin how Johnson called his previous $700,000 yearly pay "a pretty reasonable compensation level" while also opposing the existence of the federal minimum wage.
● IN-Gov: The wife of Republican Eric Holcomb says she has taught women how to shoot firearms for years and promises the candidate will protect gun owners' rights. Democrat John Gregg shows a broken-down school bus to argue Holcomb will continue the same broken education policies from Gov. Mike Pence's tenure, though Gregg doesn't call out Pence by name.
● MO-Gov: Republican Eric Greitens attacks Democrat Chris Koster for living it up on an expensive foreign trip and not returning to Missouri immediately to deal with the tornado that had devastated the city of Joplin in 2011.
● OR-Gov: Democratic Gov. Kate Brown touts her work to raise the minimum wage, paid sick leave, and her efforts to build a system that works for everyday people.
● CA-10: The DCCC quickly plays audio clips of Trump's infamous "grab them by the pussy" tape—although they don't even included a bleeped-out version of the vulgarity—to hammer Republican Rep. Jeff Denham for standing by Trump even after the latter bragged about committing sexual assault.
● CO-03: The LCV puts $150,000 behind an attack on Republican Rep. Scott Tipton for wanting to sell off Colorado's public lands to special interests, which threatens ranchers and outdoor recreation enthusiasts.
● FL-13: Democrat Charlie Crist is out with two spots (here and here). In the first, he promises to stand up for seniors and veterans, saying he opposes privatizing the VA or any cuts to Social Security and Medicare, while he vows to protect reproductive freedom and Planned Parenthood. The second spot features a waitress on the job who says it's hard to be a working mother who can't afford daycare and has to rely on family members. Crist follows up by saying he will fight for the interest of women like her.
● FL-26: The NRCC has released a Spanish-language version of a recent ad attacking Democratic ex-Rep. Joe Garcia. They red-bait Garcia by taking out of context an awkward bit sarcasm where he said, "We've proven that communism works," to absurdly portray him as a communist sympathizer in this heavily Cuban-American district. They also scaremonger over the Iran nuclear deal.
● IL-10: Republican Rep. Bob Dold! features a mother praising the congressman for his work to help children with epilepsy like her daughter.
● MI-01: House Majority PAC blasts Republican Jack Bergman for being two-faced when it comes to promising to protect Social Security, showing a clip where Bergman says "we need to privatize" the program, which Democrats call handing it over to Wall Street.
● NE-02: Democratic Rep. Brad Ashford features several self-proclaimed Republicans praising the congressman as someone who will put Nebraska ahead of partisanship. Republican Don Bacon attacks Ashford with a clip from their recent debate. Ashford is seen saying, "I don't know," in response to Bacon's gotcha question of if he knew the Omaha suburb of Bellevue was on a supposed "ISIS kill list." This attack grasps at the flimsiest of straws, since ISIS aggressively promotes propaganda online that often bears little relation to the threats American intelligence agencies actually face.
● NV-03: Republican Danny Tarkanian bemoans Obamacare and lambasts Democrat Jacky Rosen for supporting the program.
● NY-19: The Congressional Leadership Fund continues to attack Democrat Zephyr Teachout for supposedly wanting to raise property taxes and claims she is a hypocrite who underpaid her own taxes by thousands.
● NY-22: Independent Martin Babinec puts out an unintentionally funny ad where he says political insiders call him a one-issue candidate who only cares about jobs. He answers: guilty as charged! Babinec talks up the importance of jobs as a way for people to build a brighter future, but his message is amazingly devoid of any content as to how Babinec will bring jobs to the district or if they will even be good ones. The whole ad seems like something a satirical Pawnee, Indiana, mayoral candidate might have run, with Babinec finishing "One issue candidate? Sure, and that issue is you."
● TX-23: Republican Rep. Will Hurd attacks Democratic ex-Rep. Pete Gallego for being a career politician dead set on pigging out on the taxpayer-funded public trough. The DCCC plays clips of Trump offending women, the disabled, and veterans, then skewers Hurd for refusing to disavow Trump earlier. They blast Hurd for supporting deep cuts to programs that support veterans.
● UT-04: Republican Rep. Mia Love is out with two ads (here and here). The first one touts her record on education, and she spouts off conservative talking points like keeping the federal government out of education and promoting local control of schools. The second spot bemoans Democrat Doug Owens' negative attacks, claiming Love is a staunch supporter of veterans.
