If the crazy grind of this election cycle has begun to wear you down, if the same politics that once energized and captivated you now induce more anxiety than wonder, I am here to offer up a silver lining.
Have you ever heard the old saying: as North Carolina goes, so does the nation? Yeah, I didn't think so. But this year just might be the year the Tar Heel State becomes a bonafide trendsetter. As our own resident statistician DocDawg noted, NC's latest early voting data is showing a 40-plus percent drop off among Republican voters.
These are the type of numbers that foretell the potential for a big blue wave. When you don't go to the polls, there's no holding your nose and voting your party, there's no ticket splitting to be had. In fact, there are no down ballot races at all. "Faced with a choice between one candidate they have been taught to despise and another they find appalling," writes the insightus blog, "it appears that over 40% of Republican voters are just tuning out." (It also appears that female Democratic voters are contributing to the uptick.)
Now, it's possible that North Carolina Republicans are particularly deflated given all the negative press and the financial drain surrounding the state’s repulsive HB2 law, among other things. Voting for Gov. Pat McCrory might be as uniquely uninspiring for sane Republicans as voting for Donald Trump is. But it's also quite possible that North Carolina trends are providing us a window into the heart of the GOP, and it is one distraught little puppy, even as Democrats and unaffiliated voters appear to be slightly more motivated than they were in 2012. Want another example? Early ballot requests in the red state of Arizona have more than tripled this cycle over 2012, and Democrats are currently running 13 points ahead in returned ballots, versus having only a 3 percent edge at this point in 2012.
This leads me to believe that we should start preparing for one of the most unprecedented elections in modern history to bring us one of the most unprecedented congressional sessions. Let’s think big!
As Markos noted this week, the usual GOP alignments are literally ripping apart at the seams. The establishment, religious right, and tea party factions truly have no common interests to bind them together anymore. This portends a level of chaos among Republicans on the Hill like we have never seen.
Old alliances will be meaningless as everyone searches for the center of gravity that keeps them safe in the next election. Aligning with your party leadership will bring no guarantees, especially in the House, where things will be particularly fluid. The conventional wisdom in Washington is that Paul Ryan will continue his leadership post because who else do they have? But Donald Trump is already making it perfectly clear that he wants Ryan's head on a platter if his presidential bid goes down in flames (which it is).
This could lead to the best of all possible worlds for Democrats if they manage to take back both chambers of Congress. Sure, that's a big if, but it's possible and worth considering in advance. In part because considering the alternative yields little to nothing in the way of strategizing. And in part because a President Hillary Clinton could manage to pass some very important pieces of legislation if Democrats are ready to go big from the very outset.
This is where the progressive mindset comes in. The last time Democrats held the reins in 2009, the steady mantra from nearly all progressive advocates inside the Beltway along with some outside was that President Obama needed time and space to get the economic meltdown under control and pass health reform. I was there, reporting on it, and nearly all Washington advocates counseled patience from the very outset. Yes, in some ways it was understandable, but I didn't agree with it then and I don't agree with it in retrospect.
By mid-February of 2009, Obama had already signed the $787 billion stimulus package into law, which meant advocates were primarily counseling patience so the White House could work on one item—a very important item—but one item nonetheless: healthcare reform. By the time Obamacare finally cleared Congress after some impressive legislative jujitsu, it was already late March of 2010 and all anyone in Washington could talk about were the looming electoral clouds.
My point here is simply to remind the progressive left how short that two-year window is before midterms start dominating Beltway discourse again.
Following this abhorrent election cycle, Democrats will undoubtedly feel pulled to circle the wagons around Hillary Clinton just like they did with Obama. I can already imagine Washington advocates discouraging pressure from the progressive left because of how Clinton is being attacked by the right. But remember this: if historical trends hold true, Hillary Clinton may only have four years in the White House, and if Democrats are lucky enough to take the House, two of those years will account for the vast majority of her accomplishments, just like they did for Obama.
If anyone can capitalize on a chaotic GOP caucus to get through legislative priorities like infrastructure investment, immigration reform, college affordability, and others, that person is Hillary Clinton. She is built for the type of tactical maneuvering required for governing in that legislative environment. These priorities—ones she has mentioned repeatedly on the campaign trail—are possible with a House Democratic majority, even if it's a slim one.
But they are only possible if Democrats move at lightning speed to capitalize on the aftermath of the election—and the progressive left expects nothing less.
Kerry Eleveld is the author of “Don’t Tell Me To Wait: How the fight for gay rights changed America and transformed Obama’s presidency.”
