First, several points from the news release on the poll
This is NOT a new version of the poll done jointly with the Washington Post, the last iteration of which on October 13 showed a 4 point Clinton lead. There are comparisons with data in that poll to indicate shifts.
Hillary Clinton has vaulted to a double-digit advantage in the inaugural ABC News 2016 election tracking poll, boosted by broad disapproval of Donald Trump on two controversial issues: His treatment of women and his reluctance to endorse the election’s legitimacy.
As for detail about the polls (and the full pdf can be seen here), the article notes
This inaugural 2016 ABC News tracking poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, was conducted Thursday through Saturday among 1,391 adults, including 874 likely voters. This is the first in what will be daily ABC News tracking poll reports from now to Election Day. The Washington Post will join ABC’s tracking survey later this week.
The poll found by 69-24 voters disapproved of how Trump has responded to allegations about how he treats women, because
After a series of allegations of past sexual misconduct, the poll finds that some women who’d initially given him the benefit of the doubt have since moved away.
Fifty-nine percent of likely voters, moreover, reject Trump’s suggestion that the election is rigged in Clinton’s favor, and more, 65 percent, disapprove of his refusal to say whether he’d accept a Clinton victory as legitimate. Most strongly disapprove, a relatively rare result.
Overall numbers are Clinton 50, Trump 38, Johnson 5, and Stein 2.
Some other numbers:
By 52-29 voters thought Clinton won the last debate. This is both because of his statements about women and his refusal to accept the last debate.
Among women, Clinton leads 55-35, having gained 12 points while Trump lost 16 among non-college educated white women since mid October. She lead by 32, 62-30, among College educated white women, a doubling of the margin. This is in large part because of their reaction to how he has responded to the challenges about his sexual content, with 76% disapproving, and 67% disapproving strongly. Overall, 71% disapproved, with 60% of men disapproving. By party, 41% of Republicans, 70% of independents, and 92% of Democrats disapproved.
NOTE — it is hard to imagine that Trump can say or do anything to turn that disapproval around in the next 16 days, especially after his continuing to deny any factual basis to the charges and having accused all of the women of lying at the opening of his remarks in Gettysburg.
Returning to the data:
Among men, Clinton leads 44-41.
She trails among whites, but only by 43-47, and the article reminds us that Romney won this group by 20 points.
She leads among non-Whites by a massive 68-14.
She still has negatives about her emails, with 59% overall disapproving of her handling (31% of Dem, 65 for independents, and 84 for Republicans).
And on Trump’s complaints about a ‘rigged election’ the poll found voters viewing this as the making of an excuse for losing — while only 24% of Republicans felt this way, 57% of Independents and 91% of Democrats held this view. &4% of Republicans and 84% of Trump supporters view the concern as a legitimate issue.
Further, one in three Republicans – 34 percent – disapprove of Trump’s refusal to say whether he’d accept the election’s outcome if Clinton won. That jumps to 65 percent of independents and, again, 91 percent of Democrats. Not only do 65 percent overall disapprove, but 53 percent feel strongly about it.
NOTE: the iedea that about ¼ of Republican voters felt that Trump’s remarks about a rigged election thought Trump was making an excuse for losing is something to note — that may mean a reluctance to turn out to vote, with significant implications downballot for Republicans.
This is the first poll we have seen taken fully since the last debate. The movement indicated, albeit from a different poll, is likely to be strongly replicated as other polls come out.
If we presume that Clinton is now headed for a double digit lead nationally, you can safely assume not only the Presidency, but also the Senate, with the possibilities of retaking the House increasing significantly. We are going to start to see this in state-level poll results as well. You are likely to start seeing Indiana listed as a battleground.
All in all, very good news for Hillary Clinton.
Expect to see this confirmed as other post-debate polls begin to appear.
UPDATE — I should have noted when I originally posted that I was aware of posts up already about the poll, but lacking some/all of the details. Further, I had some additional comments/observations of my own to make.
This poll does include reaction to the debate on Wednesday.
It was only partially taken after the Al Smith dinner, with the reactions thereto spreading out across the media and social media.
When we look at Trump’s speech yesterday, with him beginning with his attack on his accusers, that became the primary news story about that event, and we can see in this poll how voters react to that.
Further, there is strong indication there will be more women continuing to come out. Nicholas Kristof has tweeted that a number of women have come out to him, but are afraid of coming forth. Attorney Lisa Bloom has promised to defend any woman who wants to come forwards, crowdsourcing the cost of the legal effort. A prominent trial attorney has offered to defend any woman coming forward on a pro bono basis. And while Gloria Allred has now presented two women, she had previously announced that she had been contacted by more than a dozen. Expect to see her coming forward with others.
Also — the charge that Trump offered an adult movie actress $10,000 is likely to have an impact all on its own.
We shall see.