Polls: Two more weeks. Two more weeks.
• AR-Sen: Talk Business/Hendrix College: John Boozman (R-inc): 52, Conner Eldridge (D): 34 (56-33 Trump) (Sept.: 55-29 Boozman)
• AZ-Sen: Monmouth: John McCain (R-inc): 50, Ann Kirkpatrick (D): 40 (46-45 Trump)
• FL-Sen: Associated Industries of Florida (R): Marco Rubio (R-inc): 43, Patrick Murphy (D): 38 (44-41 Clinton) (Oct.: 49-41 Rubio)
• IL-Sen: Victory Research: Tammy Duckworth (D): 50, Mark Kirk (R-inc): 39 (51-36 Clinton) (July: 46-37 Duckworth)
• NC-Sen: Siena: Deborah Ross (D): 47, Richard Burr (R-inc): 46 (46-39 Clinton) (Sept.: 46-42 Ross)
• NC-Gov: Siena: Roy Cooper (D): 51, Pat McCrory (R-inc): 45 (46-39 Clinton) (Sept.: 50-42 Cooper)
• NH-Sen: YouGov: Kelly Ayotte (R-inc): 48, Maggie Hassan (D): 44 (Aug.: 42-41 Hassan)
• NH-Gov: YouGov: Colin Van Ostern (D): 44, Chris Sununu (R): 43
• NV-Sen: Rasmussen: Catherine Cortez Masto (D): 43, Joe Heck (R): 41 (46-42 Clinton) (Sept.: 44-40 Heck)
• NV-Sen: Bendixen & Amandi International for the Las Vegas Review-Journal: Cortez Masto (D): 45, Heck (R): 44 (48-41 Clinton) (Sept.: 47-45 Heck)
• WI-Sen: WPA Opinion Research (R) for the Club for Growth (here and here): Russ Feingold (D): 45, Ron Johnson (R-inc): 42
• WI-Sen: McLaughlin & Associates (R) for Let America Work: Feingold (D): 48, Johnson (R-inc): 46 (48-43 Clinton) (Aug.: 50-47 Feingold)
• WA-Gov: Elway Research: Jay Inslee (D-inc): 51, Bill Bryant (R): 39 (48-31 Clinton) (Aug.: 48-36 Inslee)
Two more weeks.
Remember those days when, if we wrote, “Good news… for John McCain!” it was ironic? Unfortunately, most recent polling has been genuinely good for the senator, even with Donald Trump in real danger of losing this usually red state. Major outside groups haven’t gotten involved in the general election and there’s no sign that will change.
Politico says that the Associated Industries of Florida poll was sent out as a confidential email and that Politico acquired it, so this survey may never have been meant to see the light of day. In any case, it’s the latest poll to give GOP Sen. Marco Rubio a lead, but not an insurmountable edge. Both candidates have lost support over the last two weeks, though that mostly seems to be because AIF added “someone else” as an option between the two polls.
We have seen very little from Victoria Research, which says on their site that they’ve worked for both Illinois Democrats like ex-Gov. Pat Quinn and Republicans like Rep. Peter Roskam. There has been minimal outside spending in Illinois, and both sides are acting like Kirk is a goner.
Ross’ edge in the Siena poll is small, but it’s actually only her second lead in any poll released this month. Hillary Clinton’s 46-39 lead in North Carolina is also larger than what almost any pollster has found recently. Jonathan Martin of the New York Times, which commissioned the survey, tweets that Siena’s presidential results mirrors GOP polling, but we can’t verify that.
The YouGov New Hampshire poll is one of Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte’s best results in a while. Interestingly, this is one of the few polls that shows Democratic gubernatorial nominee Colin Van Ostern doing better than Senate candidate Maggie Hassan, though that may be because more voters are undecided in the gubernatorial race.
Both Nevada polls give Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto tiny leads, but neither survey comes from a particularly friendly source for Team Blue. Rasmussen is one of the very few pollsters to continue to find a close presidential race nationally. Bendixen & Amandi is polling for the Las Vegas Review-Journal, which is owned by conservative mega donor Sheldon Adelson and just happens to be one of the very few newspapers in the nation to endorse Trump.
About two weeks ago, a few polls were released showing an unexpectedly tight race in Wisconsin between Democrat Russ Feingold and GOP Sen. Ron Johnson (and Loras College even gave Johnson his first and only lead in any poll), and there was renewed talk that this race had tightened enough for Johnson to pull off an upset. However, major outside groups from both sides still have yet to air ads in the Badger State (the DSCC still seems to have a reservation for the final weeks of the contest, but they don’t appear to have aired any ads yet) and a few recent polls gave Feingold a stronger edge.
Johnson’s allies at the Club for Growth and his allied super PAC Let America Work are dropping polls arguing that Johnson is only slightly behind. The Club recently launched a $750,000 buy, so they are putting their money where their mouth is. However, well-funded GOP groups like the Senate Leadership Fund have yet to take the bait, and Democrats don’t sound worried.
Two more weeks.