● IN-09: Over the last few weeks, Democratic groups released two polls showing a tight race between Democrat Shelli Yoder and Republican Trey Hollingsworth in this 57-41 Romney seat. Yoder herself is now out with a Garin-Hart-Yang survey showing the two tied 43-43, while Donald Trump posts a 48-38 lead. Republicans have not released any contradictory polls for Indiana's 9th Congressional District, but the NRCC's response speaks louder than any survey could: The group has now committed at least $650,000 to an ad buy.
This is first time that national Republicans have gotten involved in this southern Indiana seat. It's not only notable that the GOP is investing in a district this red, but that they're not trusting Hollingsworth to pull his own weight. Hollingsworth is wealthy, and his father has also funded a super PAC to help him. But apparently, the NRCC doesn't feel that the Hollingsworth clan is doing enough to keep this district red without some help.
The NRCC is already out with their first ad, which argues that Yoder is weak on national security, with the narrator insisting that Yoder will "slash funding for Homeland Security and national defense, making us vulnerable to attacks by Islamic terrorists." National Democrats also recently began airing ads here as well, with House Majority PAC launching a $685,000 buy last week.
It's going to take a lot to turn this district blue: As we've noted before, even disastrous 2012 GOP Senate nominee Richard Mourdock narrowly took it while he was losing 50-44 statewide. But Hollingsworth, who only moved to Indiana from Tennessee just before he launched his congressional campaign last year, may just be weak enough to lose it, and Yoder has the resources to take advantage of the situation.
● CA-Sen: Almost every single poll has given Attorney General Kamala Harris a huge lead over Rep. Loretta Sanchez in California's all-Democratic general election, and now that early voting has begun, Sanchez just doesn't seem to have the time to change that. Sanchez also doesn't have the money available to wage a competitive campaign in a state as expensive as California, and no major outside groups are coming to her aid.
Sanchez is the more conservative candidate, and if she could win over most Republican voters while still holding onto a significant portion of Democrats, she could conceivably prevail. But surveys show that many conservatives simply plan to skip this race, and Sanchez isn't even doing particularly well with the ones who are taking sides.
By contrast, Harris has the support of influential national and state Democrats, and President Obama even recently appeared in an ad for her. Harris outpaced Sanchez 40-19 in the June top two primary, and Sanchez always was going to have a tough time closing that gap, but that just seems impossible now. Daily Kos Elections is changing our rating on this same party race from Likely Harris to Safe Harris.
But don't feel too bad for Sanchez. Over the weekend, the Democratic congresswoman attended a meeting of the Redlands Tea Party to try and gain the support of its membership. One of the people in attendance was none other than Steve Stockman, our favorite two-time one-term GOP congressman from Texas. Stockman urged the assembled tea partiers to back Sanchez, declaring that Harris "is a clone of President Obama." Stockman was the guy who once tweeted, "If babies had guns, they wouldn't be aborted," and gave up his seat in 2014 to run against Sen. John Cornyn in the primary, a match he lost 59-19. So yeah, excellent get for Sanchez.
● MO-Sen: If Democrat Jason Kander doesn't win the Missouri Senate race, it won't be because he didn't run enough good ads. His latest offering stars retired Army Col. John McCracken Sr., who identifies himself as Kander's commander in Afghanistan. McCracken tells the audience that, "In the Army, we don't care if you're a Democrat or a Republican. We just want to know that you're going to be there when the going gets tough."
McCracken continues by saying that in Afghanistan, Kander's military intelligence work "saved lives, and he always chose the toughest assignments. We need that kind of courage in Washington again." McCracken then insists that attack ads are trying to make Kander something he's not, but "he's a solider. And he's the kind of change we need in the Senate." This ad doesn't mention Republican Sen. Roy Blunt. However, Team Blue has been trying to frame this contest as a battle between a veteran who risked his life overseas and a political insider who has gotten rich in D.C., and ads like this are a key part of that strategy.
Republicans have a pretty simple strategy too. Polls show that Donald Trump is likely, though not certain, to carry the Show Me State, and Republicans want to do everything they can to make sure Kander doesn't pick up enough Trump votes to win. The conservative Senate Leadership Fund is out with their latest spot, and it once again ties Kander to Hillary Clinton.
As Kander and Clinton's faces are shown merging into one, the narrator insists they're the same type of person. He then throws a litany of charges at Kander and Clinton. In short, they're always running for office, voting against lower taxes, spending millions for Obamacare and undocumented immigrants, taking money from lawyers, and backing liberal Supreme Court justices. The narrator concludes by declaring, "One Hillary in Washington would be bad enough. Reject Jason Kander."
But while Republicans have spent millions tying Kander to national Democrats, Kander is accepting support from at least one high-profile politician. Kander has issued a Biden Alert!, and announced that the vice president will campaign for him in St. Louis on Friday. Biden also stumped for Kander last month.
● NH-Sen, NH-Gov, NH-01: Last week, the University of New Hampshire released a poll that looked pretty damn good for Team Blue. They gave Democrat Maggie Hassan a 48-39 lead over Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte, while Democrat Colin Van Ostern posted a 44-38 edge against Republican Chris Sununu. The statewide sample favored Hillary Clinton by a massive 49-34 margin. So, awesome, right?
Not exactly. As longtime readers know, UNH is not a favorite pollster of ours. The group has a long history of showing huge, unexplainable swings from one poll to the next. Indeed, their August survey showed Hassan up just 44-42. A lot has happened since then, but almost no one else has found Hassan with anything like the 9-point lead that UNH now gives her; the Daily Kos Elections polling average does have Hassan up, but by just 46-44. In 2014, UNH's final poll was actually quite accurate, but they took us all on a wild adventure to get there. The school probably has at least one more 2016 poll in them, so we'll see if Hassan's huge lead holds up, or if UNH finds her suddenly plummeting back to earth.
UNH is also out with polls of both of the Granite State's House races. UNH has a very bad habit of hyping House polls with tiny sample sizes, but this time they surveyed at least 300 voters per district, which is the threshold that we consider minimally acceptable. In the 1st District, they show Democrat Carol Shea-Porter leading Republican Rep. Frank Guinta 43-29, with Democrat-turned-independent Shawn O'Conner at 10. In the uncompetitive 2nd District, Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster leads 51-23. Amusingly back in August, they had Kuster beating Republican Jim Lawrence just 40-34, but again, huge swings are the name of the game when it comes to UNH.
● Polls: Something funny about Senate and gubernatorial polls.
● FL-Sen: YouGov: Marco Rubio (R-inc): 44, Patrick Murphy (D): 42 (46-43 Clinton)
● MO-Gov: Remington Research (R) for the Missouri Scout: Chris Koster (D): 48, Eric Greitens (R): 39 (Oct.: 48-42 Koster)
● NC-Sen: PPP (D): Richard Burr (R-inc): 42, Deborah Ross (D): 41 (47-44 Clinton) (Sept.: 41-39 Burr)
● NC-Sen: Monmouth: Burr (R-inc): 49, Ross (D): 43 (47-46 Clinton) (Aug.: 45-43 Burr)
● NC-Gov: PPP (D): Roy Cooper (D): 46, Pat McCrory (R-inc): 44 (47-44 Clinton) (Sept.: 45-42 Cooper)
● NC-Gov: Monmouth: McCrory (R-inc): 48, Cooper (D): 47 (47-46 Clinton) (Aug.: 52-43 Cooper)
This is the latest poll to show Florida GOP Sen. Marco Rubio with just a small lead over Democrat Patrick Murphy, and the Daily Kos Elections polling average gives Rubio a 46-42 lead. National Democrats have almost completely pulled out of this state, though: Either they're seeing much better numbers for Rubio, or they just don't think they have the resources to advertise in ultra-expensive Florida (or a combination of both).
Most October polls have given North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr a small, but consistent, lead over Deborah Ross, even with Hillary Clinton narrowly taking the state. The Daily Kos Elections polling average gives Burr a 44-43 edge, about the same as what PPP finds. Monmouth's 6-point Burr lead is larger than what almost anyone has found in recent weeks, but they're not quite on their own. In the last week, a National Research poll for the conservative Civitas Institute gave Burr a 44-37 edge, though SurveyMonkey gave Ross a 48-42 lead (her only edge in an October public poll so far).
The gubernatorial polls have been all over the place, though. In the space of a week we've seen everything from a 54-42 Cooper lead (SurveyMonkey) to a 46-42 McCrory edge (National Research). The HuffPost Pollster average has Cooper up 47-44, closer to what PPP finds than Monmouth.
● WV-Gov: With two weeks to go before Election Day (that felt good to write!) the RGA is back on the air for Republican Bill Cole. Their new spot unsurprisingly makes another effort to link Democrat Jim Justice to Hillary Clinton. The narrator explains that the two Democrats both think they're above the law, insisting that, while Clinton hid her emails, Justice "failed to pay $15 million in back taxes and fines, cheating our kids." The rest of the spot praises Cole as someone who will stand with Donald Trump, making this perhaps the only competitive race in the whole nation where the GOP is trying to link their nominee to The Donald.
The few independent surveys we've seen here have constantly given Justice a wide lead, and even a recent Cole poll could only muster up a tie. The RGA doesn't appear to have committed much money to this race: The Center for Public Integrity's TV tracker says that they've spent $470,000 on broadcast TV during the entire campaign, which is just $64,000 more than the CPI had last week. Maybe the RGA will go all-out for Cole, but their relatively small expenditures indicate that they don't believe that this is a tight race.
Meanwhile, Justice is pulling out the big guns for the home stretch. His new ad stars two famous West Virginia college football coaches, Don Nehlen of West Virginia University and Bob Pruett of Marshall University. Nehlen identifies himself as a Republican and says that Pruett is a Democrat, but they're both for Justice. They praise him for bringing the New Orleans Saints training camp and the PGA to the state, and declare, "We're voting for the man, not the party." They also insist that the candidate can't be bought, "That's why Bill Cole's rich buddies are attacking Jim Justice." The duo stared in a different ad for Justice in the spring primary.
● CA-21: While Republican Rep. David Valadao has the misfortune of running for re-election in a predominantly Hispanic seat with Donald Trump as his ticket-mate, national Democrats didn't make his seat a target until recently. However, that's now changed, with House Majority PAC directing a significant $1.1 million to this district in California's Central Valley, which Obama carried 55-44.
Valadao's allies at the Congressional Leadership Fund aren't taking any chances, and they've reserved $530,000 for paid media to boost the incumbent. Valadao is a well-funded candidate who has proven that he can run far ahead of the top of the ticket before, and Democrat Emilio Huerta doesn't have much money available. But with Trump likely to cause problems here and both sides taking this race seriously, a Huerta upset is looking like more of a possibility, so Daily Kos Elections is moving this race from Likely to Lean Republican.
● CA-49: This race is officially for real, folks. Democrat Doug Applegate began the cycle as an utter Some Dude, but after he held GOP Rep. Darrell Issa to a shockingly close 51-45 margin in June's top-two primary, his campaign began to catch fire. Applegate ultimately wound up outraising Issa, a progressive bête noire, in the third quarter, and a recent DCCC poll found Applegate leading 46-42. Republicans haven't answered, while Democrats made a late move to pour in $3.7 million worth of TV time for Applegate.
Trump is anathema to this affluent and well-educated district in suburban San Diego, which voted for Mitt Romney four years ago but will almost certainly go for Hillary Clinton this time. That more than anything else has put this seat in play, so much so that Issa has even sent out mailers favorably linking himself to his bête noire, Barack Obama!
The president shot back by calling Issa's move "the definition of chutzpah" (sounds like something we'd write!), which in turn sent Issa back to his natural I-hate-Obama mode—certainly won't help him. With such severe pressure weighing down on the incumbent from the top of the ticket, we're moving our rating from Lean Republican to Tossup.
● FL-07: National Democrats reserved $3.8 million for this suburban Orlando seat long ago to help fledgling candidate Stephanie Murphy, and their efforts seem to have born fruit. Over the last two weeks, Team Blue has released two polls showing Murphy with a small lead over longtime Republican Rep. John Mica, and the incumbent and his allies haven't released contradictory numbers. However, they are responding in another way: On Monday, National Journal reported that the NRCC was launching a $1.4 million buy here. Aside from a tiny joint buy the NRCC did with Mica a little while ago, this is the first time that a major GOP outside group has gotten involved in this race.
Mica hasn't faced a serious general election challenge in ages. However, court-ordered redistricting transformed what was a light red seat into a district that Obama carried by the narrowest of margins in 2012. Donald Trump is also proving to be a huge anvil in reasonably well-educated and well-off suburban seats like this one, so Mica will need crossover support from Democrats voters to prevail—something he's never required before. Mica may very well pull out a win, but the NRCC's decision to invest here so big late in the game is another sign that he's in for the fight of his career. Daily Kos Elections is moving this race from Lean Republican to Tossup.
● FL-13: St. Pete Polls takes another look at this St. Petersburg seat for Florida Politics, and they give Democrat Charlie Crist a 48-45 lead over GOP Rep. David Jolly, not much different than the 48-43 Crist edge they found two weeks ago. They find Hillary Clinton with a 48-46 lead in a seat that Obama carried 55-44; that seems low, but an early October DCCC poll had a similar result even as they gave Crist a 50-39 lead. The University of North Florida poll gave Crist crushing 54-36 lead, while Jolly's team gave Crist a 47-45 edge a week ago.
While everyone seems to agree that Crist has some type of a lead, Democratic groups don't appear to have scaled back any of their planned $2.6 million spending. Jolly has an awful relationship with the GOP leadership, and his would-be allies still haven't committed any resources towards helping him.
● ME-02: Former state Sen. Emily Cain's 2014 loss to Republican Bruce Poliquin was deeply disappointing, but D.C. Democrats seemed willing to chalk it up to that year's GOP wave since they immediately recruited Cain for a rematch. But Cain's fundraising got off to a slow start while Poliquin hauled in boatloads of cash, and he proved to be more nimble than his reputation as a conservative purist would have led anyone to expect.
Cain eventually picked up the pace in the money chase, but then another, very different problem surfaced: Donald Trump. While Maine's 2nd Congressional District voted for Barack Obama by a 53-44 margin, it's an overwhelmingly white and rural district with comparatively lower income and education levels. In other words, it looks like Trump country. And for a long while, it definitely appeared to be, as polls of Maine showed a real split, with the northern 2nd District favoring the GOP nominee and the southern, more cosmopolitan 1st backing Hillary Clinton.
Lately, though, as Clinton has surged in the polls nationally, Democratic fortunes in the 2nd have also improved. The last few Democratic polls of this race have found both Clinton and Cain taking the lead here, and an independent survey also showed Clinton moving in front of Trump. Republicans have never answered with contradictory numbers. Both sides are still spending millions of dollars in outside money here, and this seat looks very much up for grabs, so we're changing our rating from Lean Republican to Tossup.
● MN-08: SurveyUSA is out with another House poll for KSTP, the Twin Cities ABC affiliate, and they give Team Red some good news in this rural northeast Minnesota seat. Republican Stewart Mills posts a 45-41 lead over Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan, while Donald Trump has a massive 47-35 edge here.
The only other recent poll we've seen here was a survey for the Democratic group House Majority PAC that had Nolan up 49-41, while Trump led 39-38. Obama carried this Iron Range seat 52-46, but this area has a lower proportion of college graduates and a smaller median income than the nation as a whole, so Trump has room to improve on Romney's performance. Nolan himself even said a few months ago that his early polls showed Hillary Clinton "unbelievably far behind" in the district. It's possible that Trump's problems will prevent him from pulling off a huge win here, but this is still tough terrain for a Democrat these days.
It's worth noting that SurveyUSA polled this race in mid-October of 2014 and gave Mills a 47-39 lead, while Nolan prevailed 49-47 less than a month later. That doesn't mean that SurveyUSA is overestimating Team Red again, but it's something to take into account. However, that also doesn't mean that Nolan and his allies should be comforted by his 8-point lead in HMP's poll. Both parties are continuing to pour money into this seat, so no one's acting like this race is anything but tight.
● UT-04: Republican Rep. Mia Love defeated Democrat Doug Owens by a surprisingly small 51-46 during the 2014 GOP wave—a result made all the more shocking by this district's heavy Republican lean—and Owens is back for a rematch. But despite Donald Trump's problems in Utah, both sides acknowledge that Love is leading.
Last week, Owens released a poll showing Love winning by a wide 50-40 margin, which is closer than what independent surveys and Love's polling found, but still not at all good. An in-house DCCC poll released on Monday also underscores how tough Owens' path to victory is. They give Love a 49-41 lead, while the presidential sample has Hillary Clinton and conservative independent Evan McMullin tied 29-29, with Trump at 21. However you slice it, an 8-point deficit in a friendly poll with just two weeks to go is just not an encouraging sign for Owens.
However, we're not ready to take this race off the big board yet. Love is still running ads against Owens, so she's still acting like he's a threat. And at the same time, the pro-Democratic House Majority PAC still has a $403,000 reservation here, while Love's allies at the Congressional Leadership Fund recently directed $351,000 to this seat. Love also surprisingly lost in 2012 against then-Rep. Jim Matheson when the polls showed her ahead, and her 2014 win was weak enough that we can't rule out an upset. And the Beehive State's bizarre presidential race may yet wreak havoc in unpredictable ways downballot. But with even Owens and the DCCC acknowledging that Love is far ahead, Daily Kos Elections is moving this race from Lean Republican to Likely Republican.
● VA-10: Rep. Barbara Comstock faces some of the stiffest headwinds of any House Republican anywhere. While Romney carried her seat 50-48, Donald Trump is absolute electoral poison in Northern Virginia. In fact, this district is the second-wealthiest in the entire nation and also the 12th-best educated—almost the epitome of the kind of area where Republican voters have turned against the top of the GOP ticket. And indeed, a little while ago, Democrat LuAnn Bennett released a poll giving her a 48-44 lead over Comstock, while Team Red never responded with better numbers. Both parties are also continuing to direct money to this expensive race.
Comstock, however, remains a very well-funded and formidable candidate. In her 2013 bid for the state House, she managed to narrowly win re-election even as Democrat Terry McAuliffe carried her district 52-42 in the gubernatorial race, so she does have practice running far ahead of her own party. But this race will put all her skills to the test, and neither party is acting like they have a meaningful edge. Daily Kos Elections is moving this race from Lean Republican to Tossup.
● Early Voting: If you're interested in how the early vote is playing out this year, the person you need to follow is political scientist Michael McDonald, the foremost expert on the subject in the nation. You can follow McDonald on Twitter, and you can also check out his weekly state-by-state roundup, the most recent edition of which is here. The upshot is that the early voting statistics look good for Democrats, with a possible hitch in North Carolina, where Republicans have made it a priority to limit early voting in black communities.
And if you're new to the subject of early voting, beware that it can be a tricky one. The most important thing to remember is that you always have to compare statistics from this year with those four years ago in order to gain the proper context. (For instance, you might hear that 60 percent of all ballots returned so far in state X were from registered Democrats, which might sound good in the abstract, but what if Democrats submitted 65 percent by this date four years ago? Suddenly, that doesn't sound so good.) And even then, direct comparisons might be tricky, due to changes in voting laws or, as in North Carolina, the availability of early voting.
To help get a handle on this complicated topic, start with this primer from Daniel Nichanian, who follows early voting closely and offers tips on what to look for in several key states. You can follow up with this guide from Stephen Wolf that explains whether and when early voting starts in every state, and how important the practice is in each. But no matter how much the tea leaves might tell us, always read them with caution!
● IL-Sen: Republican Sen. Mark Kirk continues to hit Democrat Tammy Duckworth over her management role in the VA, claiming she put herself before veterans, while Kirk says he fought for their interests.
● IN-Sen: Democratic ex-Sen. Evan Bayh released two spots (here and here). In the first one, he uses bipartisan and typical fiscal-conservative language to tout his work to make college more affordable. The second one features a woman from Bayh's hometown testifying to his Indiana roots, saying he's the same straight-shooter she knew from years ago. Implicitly acknowledging Bayh's residency issues, the woman interestingly closes with "Once a Hoosier, always a Hoosier."
The NRSC blasts Bayh for supporting the 2008 bank bailout and voting on issues toward the end of his Senate tenure that favored the company he would later join not long after leaving office. The Senate Leadership Fund hits the former senator over the same issue, calling him corrupt.
● LA-Sen: Republican Charles Boustany attacks fellow Republican John Kennedy over his long career in politics, particularly for stances Kennedy took while he was a Democrat prior to 2007, such as supporting John Kerry for president and previously being pro-choice. Boustany features a pug with several different props (including a large John Kerry heart necklace) to represent what the narrator says are Kennedy's changing positions.
● NC-Sen: Democrat Deborah Ross debuted two fresh spots (here and here). The first one praises her as someone who can work across party lines to bring change to North Carolina. The second one accuses Republican Sen. Richard Burr of exploiting victims of sexual assault for political gain, even though he's still a staunch supporter of Trump after the latter was caught bragging about sexual assault. AFSCME attacks Burr for lining his own pockets during his long tenure in Washington, while they also note Burr missed two-thirds of his armed services committee hearings. Meanwhile, Richard Burr highlights one fact-checker's ratings to argue that Deborah Ross' ads on sex offenders are false while his attacks are true.
● NV-Sen: Freedom Partners puts $750,000 behind attacking Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto for failing to stand up for Nevada's seniors when she was attorney general.
● PA-Sen: Democrat Katie McGinty stands amid factor workers, highlighting how important Social Security is to hard-working folks like them, then lambasts Republican Sen. Pat Toomey for wanting to raise the retirement age. She promises to protect programs like Medicare and Social Security.
● WI-Sen: Democratic ex-Sen. Russ Feingold hammers Republican Sen. Ron Johnson for wanting to privatize Social Security and Medicare and raise the retirement age.
● NC-Gov: Republican Gov. Pat McCrory praises himself for handling disaster relief efforts following flooding from Hurricane Matthew, criticizing Democrat Roy Cooper for supposedly just playing partisan politics in response to the storm instead.
● MT-Gov: Republican Greg Gianforte hits on a consistent theme of bemoaning special interests and career politicians, while he claims he will work to bring good-paying jobs to Montana.
● NH-Gov: Save the Children lays down $260,000 to commend Democrat Colin Van Ostern for his plan to provide New Hampshire with full-day Kindergarten
● WA-Gov: Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee features footage from a rally earlier this year with President Obama, who enthusiastically argues why Washington should re-elect their governor, particularly for his sound economic management and education policies.
● CA-10: The DCCC skewers Republican Rep. Jeff Denham for supporting Trump when it comes to tax breaks for wealthy people like them, linking Trump admitting he paid no federal income taxes for 18 years to Denham having increased his wealth by $28 million during his years in public office. They praise Democrat Michael Eggman for standing up for the Central Valley, not millionaires.
● CA-21: Republican Rep. David Valadao showcases his efforts to help veterans get the benefits they deserve.
● CA-24: Republican Justin Fareed released two ads (here and here). The first one features testimonials from women who claim he will fight for their rights, including on "women's healthcare." Of course, this ad doesn't mention that Fareed wanted to cut off funding for Planned Parenthood over abortion. His second spot attacks Democrat Salud Carbajal for being a hypocritical political insider who repeatedly raised his own pay despite clips where Carbajal talks about the need for sacrifice. The NRCC similarly calls Carbajal a corrupt insider who looked out for the interests of his wealthy donors instead of everyday people.
● CA-49: Republican Rep. Darrell Issa showcases the sheriffs of both counties in his district praising his efforts to keep Californians safe.
● IA-01: House Majority PAC lambasts Republican Rep. Rod Blum for serving special interests by wanting to privatize Social Security and cut benefits by raising the retirement age.
● IA-03: Republican Rep. David Young decries Democrat Jim Mowrer's supposedly dishonest attacks, trying very hard to make fetch happen with the tagline "Desperate Jim Mowrer."
● ME-02: Democrat Emily Cain features several firefighters criticizing Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin for failing to stand up for first-responders when he wouldn't co-sponsor renewing the James Zadroga 9/11 health-care law.
● MN-03: Republican Rep. Erik Paulsen uses a clip of Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton stating "The reality is: The Affordable Care Act is no longer affordable" to hit Democratic candidate Terri Bonoff over Obamacare, framing her as a politician looking out for her own financial well-being at the expense of regular Minnesotans.
● MN-08: The NRCC continues to hammer Democrat Rep. Rick Nolan over supporting the Iran nuclear deal.
● NE-02: Republican Don Bacon features the director of the equal opportunity office at Offutt Air Force Base praising his leadership during his tenure there.
● NJ-05: Democrat Josh Gottheimer's latest spot starts off with an innocent-enough scene: A grandmother sits on a park bench reading a newspaper while her grandson runs around playing. She recounts how she just found out Republican Rep. Scott Garrett is a tea-party extremist before unexpectedly breaking into "Are you [expletive deleted] kidding me?" This continues with the woman cursing at Garrett for voting against health care for 9/11 first-responders and refusing to support fellow Republicans simply because they were gay. This surprising—although censored—vulgarity from an elderly woman reminiscent of actress Betty White is certainly one way to cut through the noise and stand out.
● NY-22: The NRCC released two spots (here and here). The first one attacks Democrat Kim Myers for supporting tax increases, linking her to Hillary Clinton in the process. Their second spot casts Republican Claudia Tenney as a conservative who will stand up to Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Clinton, while independent Martin Babinec will supposedly empower Clinton if he wins.
● NY-24: Republican Rep. John Katko labels Democrat Colleen Deacon a partisan hack who supports higher taxes and Obamacare, then pivots to praise his own independence and efforts to lower taxes.
● TX-23: Democratic ex-Rep. Pete Gallego excoriates Republican Rep. Will Hurd for voting to cut Medicare and privatize it, while Gallego says he will fight to protect the American dream. The DCCC connects Hurd to Trump in a Spanish segment that focuses on their harsh stances toward undocumented immigrants.
● VA-10: Democrat LuAnn Bennett ties Republican Rep. Barbara Comstock to Trump, noting they both opposed comprehensive immigration reform and universal gun background checks.
● WA-07: Democrat Brady Walkinshaw concedes that fellow Democrat Pramila Jayapal is also a progressive, but dings her for being rated one of the least effective state senators and missing many votes.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and James Lambert.