It's been obvious for a while now that Republicans have gerrymandered their way out of the presidency—creating such hot pockets of conservatism that their presidential hopefuls must tack fatally right in order to win the nomination. But what if they have actually gerrymandered their way out of the speakership? In other words, what if a trimmed-down GOP majority yields several distinct cohorts with so little in common that they can't agree on a speaker? This is essentially the scenario that congressional observer and scholar Norm Ornstein is toying with.
He notes, as Markos did, that the balance of the GOP base is now more aligned with Donald Trump (51 percent) than with Paul Ryan (33 percent) in a recent Bloomberg poll.
Of course, best case for Democrats (and perhaps Paul Ryan himself) is that they eke out a House majority. But in the likely event that Republicans are left with a severely hobbled majority, Democrats may be able to play kingmakers if Republicans are too fragmented to do so themselves. Ornstein theorizes three scenarios, the first being that Democrats offer to support a moderate Republican in the mold of Pennsylvania's Rep. Charlie Dent ...
...in return for a package of reforms to return to the regular order—a guarantee that core bills will get up-or-down votes on the House floor, that minority amendments will be allowed, that there will be real conference committees with the Senate to reconcile bills, and maybe the institutionalization of the McConnell Rule to avoid confrontations over the debt ceiling.
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Even more delicious and seemingly unlikely is Democrats offering up a more conservative member of their own caucus, like Maryland's Rep. Steny Hoyer, with guarantees that the GOP would get substantial input on the agenda.
Or it could be a widely respected former member like Kansas’ Dan Glickman. Remember: the Speaker of the House does not have to be a member of the House.
Or perhaps a former GOP member who continues to command respect on both sides of the aisle.
The obvious choices here include Tom Davis of Virginia and Vin Weber of Minnesota.
Whatever happens in this election, we should expect the House—the most excitable component of the federal government—to provide the most surprises in its aftermath. The possibility of a razor-thin Democratic majority or a Republican majority that can't secure a speaker without an assist from Democrats are both in the offing.