So first, everybody take a breath. I mean, did you really think we would sail through this election with these two candidates and not have some kind of Republican defense mechanism vomit something stupid to try to change this election?
Good news: So far, it’s not working. See this CBS/YouGov Poll that shows the impact on voters’ support for Clinton (or Trump) is virtually non-existent (full info here: www.cbsnews.com/...)
Here’s their graphic of what I mean:
CBS/YouGov poll indicates almost 3x the Democrats are more likely to support Hillary because of the FBI statement than less likely. And only 26% of Republicans (a cult of Clinton-haters) say they are less likely.
This election isn’t about Hillary. I wish it was, because she has so much to offer. The election is about the fact that Donald Trump is mentally unstable and — probably — a criminal and sexual predator (but we’ll get to that). This poll just confirms that hypothesis.
The FBI announcement is already evolving from being about Hillary to being about Jim Comey and his decision to send his letter. That’s good, because it means that the news can focus on something else related to the campaign.
That brings me to point two of the campaign at this moment: You know something else nasty and big about Trump is coming — not because of the mysterious tweets and statements by GOP insiders (and Never-Trumpers) alluding to it — it’s because these stories have already dropped they just haven’t been picked up. There’s the video of Trump sex-shaming a Miss Universe winner in front of her face. There’s the cocaine party/statutory rape story. These are both already out there just waiting for a mainstream publication to run with them. The Clinton campaign has a stellar opposition research group — that’s for sure. I cannot imagine they are done yet.
Trump is still Trump — and therefore his own worst enemy. He’s incredibly erratic and he will continue to say stupid stuff until Election Day (and probably after). There is no real strategy to where he’s campaigning. In Colorado yesterday (a state that most analysts of all stripes agree is long lost to him) and then New Mexico today? They guy is losing North Carolina, Virginia and Pennsylvania — so how does a quixotic effort to tip New Mexico’s 5 electoral votes help.
Polling and stats show us that the Clinton ground game is winning votes and breaking records in red states at the same time. Look at the early vote lead (in polls) in NC and FL. Look at the turnout in Texas, which is looking pretty purple at the moment. And remember, it’s not just that the Clinton camp has a superior ground game. The Trump campaign has no ground game at all (and very little money with which to make believe at the last minute).
And about all of those states: You still need those 270 electoral votes. We here lots in the media about the battleground states. Trump needs to flip most of these to win. Right now, he’s in no position to take CO, NV, VA, NC, PA, NH, WI, MI — if polls are to be believed.
At best, Trump is in the margin of error with Clinton in FL, OH and NV.
The core blue states: Well, those show absolutely no evidence of any flipping to red. So in spite of all of his bravura, Trump is not going to win in NY, MA, NJ, CA, OR, WA, etc.
Trump’s biggest problem: Not all of the core red states are holding and some are very, very close — notably TX, UT, AZ, GA, SC, and IN.
Finally, the landslide watch: For a really landslide, the winner needs to take 400 or more EV’s. Hillary isn’t there at the moment, but she’s been flirting with it. The architecture is there — it just depends on the state of mind of the voter on election day. We were looking closest to that after the groper video surfaced. The FBI letter has clouded this opportunity, but let’s watch and see what happens. Fundamentally, it’s still there.