As expected, the Comey letter, which stated that new information found on someone elses device may or may not contain anything important, does not move the needle on voter preferences.
First Poll Since Comey Shows No Effect On Hillary Clinton - Steady lead
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton maintains the same lead over GOP opponent Donald Trump that she had before FBI Director James Comey announced that the bureau is investigating newly obtained emails that might be relevant to Clinton’s handling of sensitive government information as secretary of state, according to a new national poll from Politico/Morning Consult.
The poll, conducted Saturday and Sunday after the revelations, found Clinton leading Trump by 3 percentage points, 46 percent to 43 percent. That margin was unchanged (Clinton up 3 points, 42 percent to 39 percent) when Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein were included in the poll.
On Thursday and Friday, prior to Comey’s letter to congressional leaders, polling from Politico/Morning Consult showed very similar margins: Clinton led Trump by 3 points in the four-way race and 5 points in the head-to-head matchup, within the poll’s margin of error.
So, Morning Consult had shown a 3% Hillary lead on Friday. And, today, with polling conducted entirely on Saturday and Sunday, it is still the same 3%.
Nearly all poll respondents ― 89 percent ― had heard at least some about the Friday bombshell. But a 39 percent plurality said it made no difference in their vote. Another 39 percent said it made them somewhat or much less likely to vote for her, but that’s driven by nearly two-thirds of Republicans who say they’re less likely to vote for the Democratic nominee. Forty-two percent of independents said the events make them less likely to vote for Clinton.
Those who state they are “less likely to vote for Clinton” were not going to vote for her anyway.
Those numbers are consistent with the ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll and the CBS battleground poll released Sunday, which both had some data from Friday night and Saturday that indicated the announcement might have little effect on vote choices except among those already not likely to vote for Clinton.
Read it again, folks. Little effect on vote choices except among those already not likely to vote for Clinton.
Looks like the whole thing was much ado about nothing. Polls aren’t changing. This Morning Consult poll was conducted ENTIRELY after the Comey letter, and nothing changed at all. The same 3% lead Hillary had in this poll before the Comey letter was leaked is now still the same 3% lead in polling conducted entirely on Saturday and Sunday.
Also, Rasmussen, the GOP leaning pollster, has Hillary actually UP by 3% whereas on Friday they had the race exactly tied.
Hillary Clinton unbruised
Rasmussen’s poll story:
Hillary Clinton appears unbruised so far from the reopening of the FBI’s investigation of her and holds a slight lead as the final full week of the campaign begins.
The latest Rasmussen Reports White House Watch national telephone and online survey finds Clinton with 45% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Trump’s 42%. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson has five percent (5%) of the vote, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein earns two percent (2%). Another two percent (2%) like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Clinton and Trump were tied with 45% each on Friday. They were within two points or less of each other nationally all last week in a survey with a +/- 2.5% margin of error.
A 3% lead with the “House of Ras” is very good, given that Ras has a major GOP house effect, usually. But the Monday after the “big bombshell” on Friday to be surging from “exactly tied” to now showing a 3% lead?
Much ado about nothing!
Note: No, I don’t think we have to wait until Wednesday to “see the full fallout” of the Comey letter. Any deviation would be strongest upon the initial release. In other words, IF there were some negative effect to be felt it would have been in Saturday and Sunday polling. Subsequent events like the strong focus on Comey acting improperly, perhaps criminally even, would lower and reverse the “boom” on subsequent days polling on Monday and Tuesday.
The fuse has been lit, it has fizzled, and has had no effect. Some people will have to come to grips with that reality.