I’ve been waiting to catch up on the polling aggregates, allowing time for the Donald Trump craziness from the past week to seep into the public consciousness. While his never-nding stream of shit hasn’t abated, nor its potential impact on the numbers, we at least have enough data to check in and see how the debate affected things (remember that, the debate?).
The answer? It affected things just great!
2016 BATTLEGROUND PRESIDENTIAL MATCHUPS
|
10/4 |
9/23 |
9/15 |
8/30 |
8/17 |
7/28 |
7/19 |
6/30 |
US |
C+6 |
C+4.3 |
C+3.6 |
C+6.6 |
C+8.6 |
C+1.3 |
C+2.5
|
C+7 |
AZ (11) |
T+3 |
T+2 |
T+2 |
T+2 |
TIED |
TIED |
TIED |
C+1 |
CO (9) |
C+4 |
C+4 |
C+6 |
C+8 |
C+7
|
C+5 |
C+5 |
N/A |
FL (29) |
C+3 |
C+2 |
C+3 |
C+3 |
C+4 |
C+3 |
C+2 |
C+6 |
GA (16) |
T+4 |
T+3 |
T+1 |
T+2 |
T+1 |
T+3 |
T+4 |
T+3 |
IA (6) |
T+3 |
T+2 |
TIED |
C+2 |
C+2 |
C+3 |
C+3 |
C+4 |
MI (16) |
C+5 |
C+5 |
C+7 |
C+8 |
C+8 |
C+6 |
C+6 |
C+8 |
MO (10) |
T+4 |
T+8 |
T+5 |
T+4 |
T+5 |
T+7 |
T+6 |
T+3 |
NC (15) |
C+1 |
TIED |
C+2 |
C+3 |
C+4 |
C+4 |
C+4 |
TIED |
NV (6) |
TIED |
TIED |
TIED |
TIED |
T+1 |
C+2 |
N/A |
N/A |
NH (4) |
C+6 |
C+5 |
C+5 |
C+7 |
C+6 |
C+5 |
C+4 |
C+6 |
OH (18) |
TIED |
TIED |
C+1 |
C+2 |
C+2 |
TIED |
C+2 |
C+3 |
PA (20) |
C+5 |
C+6 |
C+7 |
C+7 |
C+7 |
C+3 |
C+3 |
C+4 |
VA (13) |
C+5 |
C+7 |
C+8 |
C+9 |
C+8 |
C+5 |
C+5 |
C+3 |
WI (10) |
C+4 |
C+5 |
C+6 |
C+9 |
C+9 |
C+8 |
C+9 |
C+10 |
Let’s dive in to the numbers.
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State polling is always a lagging indicator, but we’re seeing a huge rise in the national polls. Now, you may think that 1.7 points is not so huge, but … it is, especially in a world where people don’t change their partisan preferences. At this point in the 2012 cycle, President Barack Obama had a 1.3-point lead in the aggregate. Six is “blowout” territory, fast approaching the 7.2-point margin Obama enjoyed against John McCain in 2008.
The state aggregates aren’t showing much movement yet, since there aren’t enough new numbers to displace the old ones. But even there, looking at recent results, we’re seeing dramatic shifts.
Here’s a list of all the latest post-debate state polls:
CO: Clinton +11, 44-33 (Keeting Research)
CO: Clinton +11, 49-38 (Monmouth)
CO: Clinton +6, 46-40 (PPP)
Looks like both parties are ignoring the state. It’s over.
FL: Clinton +5, 46-41(Quinnipiac)
FL: Clinton +1, 47-46 (Opinion Savvy/Fox13)
FL: Clinton +4, 46-42 (Mason-Dixon)
FL: Clinton +2, 45-43 (PPP)
At this point of the campaign in 2012, Obama and Romney were locked 47-47. The final results were 50.01-49.13, less than a point. The spreads in the current polling point to serious troubles for Trump in a state with a huge Latino population. Note, in particular, how Romney was polling at 47 at this point, while Trump is mired down in the low 40s (except for that one Fox-sponsored poll).
Oh, and check this out:
Florida doesn’t start absentee balloting until Tuesday [today], but already a record 2.5 million voters have requested ballots. Republicans are ahead in ballot requests, 43 percent to 38 percent.
That’s a much narrower gap than in 2008, the most recent in which comparable data was available. At that time, the Republicans held a solid lead in requests, 51 percent to 32 percent […] Obama won the state by 2.8 percentage points.
That’s a sweet, sweet 14-point shift.
MI: Clinton +7. 46-39 (Glengariff/Detroit News)
NH: Clinton +6, 43-37 (GBA Strategies)
NH: Clinton +7, 42-35 (MassINC/WBUR) It would be nice to see Clinton higher in the Granite State, but Trump can’t even get out of the mid-30s. Damn...
NC: Clinton +6, 45-39 (Elon)
NC: Clinton +1, 46-45 (Selzer)
NC: Clinton +3, 46-43 (Quinnipiac)
NC: Clinton +2, 44-42 (PPP)
At this point in 2012, Romney led Obama 48-46, en route to a 50.4-48.4 victory. Romney was close to 50, Trump is close to 40. Check out what else is happening in North Carolina:
It’s one county, sure, but a big one, and it’s one that shows 1) a fired up Dem operation, and 2) a not-so-fired-up Republican one. And just how fired up is our side?
By party, Democrats made up 40 percent of the ballots returned compared to 35 percent for Republicans. At this point in 2012, Republicans had opened a wide lead over Democrats in returned ballots, 49 percent to 32 percent, leading to Mitt Romney’s narrow win that state.
That’s a 22-point shift in North Carolina’s early vote, if you’re too lazy to do the math.
OH: Trump +5, 47-42 (Quinnipiac) Oh, Ohio, do you really want to be a national laughingstock by calling yourself a “Trump state” this year? (Same question goes to you, Iowa.)
PA: Clinton +4, 45-41 (Quinnipiac)
PA: Clinton +6, 45-39 (PPP)
PA: Clinton +6, 48-36 (Franklin College)
PA: Clinton +10, 50-40 (Monmouth)
Ahh, Pennsylvania—the GOP’s great white whale, always seemingly within reach, yet so far, far away. I mean, if Trump can’t even consistently break 40 percent, what’s the f’n point?
VA: Clinton +6, 46-40 (PPP)
VA: Clinton +7, 42-35 (Christopher Newport)
Now the state averages are being dragged down by a UPI/CVOTER poll that is stinking shit up, claiming that Trump is winning pretty much everything. Use that poll to motivate your freakout if that’s your thing. But those polls were conducted over two weeks (a polling no-no), and predated the first debate. And even accounting for it in the averages (and it does bring down Clinton’s numbers), she’s winning, and winning handily.
This is a presidential election with two universally known candidates. People’s opinions don’t change. The numbers are locked in and solid. Except … Trump is doing everything to challenge that notion, fighting tremendously hard every day to piss off yet one more voter. Will he succeed?
Stay tuned.
Update: Added new Monmouth poll out of Pennsylvania showing 10-point Clinton lead, and also how about this?
!!!