Compare the 2012 exit poll results with numbers from CNN’s latest poll giving Hillary Clinton a 46-41 overall lead over Donald Trump.
|
2012 |
NOw |
Women |
Obama 55
Romney 44 |
Clinton 53
Trump 39 |
Men |
Obama 45
Romney 52 |
Clinton 40
Trump 44 |
White |
Obama 39
Romney 59 |
Clinton 39
Trump 47 |
Non-white |
Obama 83
Romney 17 |
Clinton 69
Trump 22 |
As always, it’s not wise to over-rely on the numbers from a single poll. But as of now, there’s no polling aggregate for polling crosstabs. (Maybe something for us to work on here at Daily Kos for the next cycle?) So, this is the best we can do, but even this gives us some pretty good insight into the state of the race.
Women: Clinton is pretty much at Obama-levels of support. Trump, however, is lagging by a whopping five points, with another eight percent undecided or third party. That third-party support will evaporate (it was 1 percent in 2012), so the big question is where those eight land. If Trump can claw back up to Romney levels, Republicans downballot survive in fairly good shape. If those undecided (basically suburban white moderate women) go Clinton or decide to stay home, then we win big downballot. This is why the Alicia Machado story was so significant. It is pushing those women to the Democrats at a time when Republicans desperately need them to stay home.
Men: Clinton is down five, Trump down eight. A whopping 16 percent are mostly third party or (to a far lesser degree) undecided. That undecided vote will shrink dramatically by election day since few will turn out and vote for a sure loser, and if they do, people don’t like throwing their votes away. But regardless, this shows Trump having difficulty with his core base. Bros. Now we get to see if the bros are okay with Trump shucking eggs at business and paying no taxes. (My prediction: yes, they’ll eventually rally behind Trump because these are the same people who say shit like “bros before hoes”.)
White: Clinton is exactly where Obama was four years ago. Trump is down 12 points. That is reflected by both his difficulties with white suburban women, and with those Gary Johnson conservatives. Any white vote Clinton earns above Obama’s base 39 percent is gravy.
Non-white: Obama won this vote by 66 points in 2012, Clinton leads it by 47. Good news for Trump! Or, this is the results of a small sample.
Romney got 27 percent of the Latino vote in 2012 (to Obama’s 71). The latest poll of Latinos from Latino Decisions has Clinton leading 73-16. When all’s said and done, Clinton should do better than 80-20, especially considering this amazing nugget:
Of the 72% who chose Clinton, 56% of those polled said they were “certain” to vote for the Democratic candidate. Of the 18% who chose Trump, only 12% said they were “certain” to vote for the Republican candidate.
Obama won the black vote 93-6 in 2012. Does anyone really think that Trump will outperform that?
So yeah, while this poll shows a falloff in Democratic support from people of color, it just ain’t gonna happen.
Bottom line? The only question with white men is whether they stick with Johnson or go back to Trump (they will), making white suburban women the only truly persuadable demographic this cycle. And no, they’re not looking to Clinton to convince them. They are wondering if they really can vote for that asshole Trump as he actively works to repulse them on a daily basis.