As of 11 AM EDT, Hurricane Matthew is a deadly Category 4 storm bearing down on Florida’s east coast and may intensify more. If Matthew continues on the latest track and forecast, it will buzz the entire coastline from Miami up thru Jacksonville, Savannah, and Charleston as a strong Category 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. At this time, the most vulnerable region is centered on Kennedy Space Center. That includes West Palm Beach, Ft. Pierce, Melbourne, Cocoa Beach, Merritt Island, Titusville, and Daytona. The latest from Jeff Masters at WU:
An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft penetrated Matthew’s eye at 8:17 am EDT, and found that the central pressure had fallen to 937 mb (preliminary data, not official yet.) The surface winds measured by their SFMR instrument were unchanged from what the aircraft measured in their earlier pass through the eye at 6:08 am, but the pressure fell 7 mb between those fixes—a significant drop. Matthew’s pressure was 961 mb at 11 pm EDT Wednesday, and the 24 mb pressure fall in nine hours that has occurred since then will likely lead to a further increase in Matthew’s winds, by about 10 - 15 mph, by this afternoon. This would make Matthew a 135 - 140 mph Category 4 storm as it bears down on Florida.
Sustained winds are 138 MPH, gusts at 170 MPH, storm surge predicted to be as high as 10 feet or more. Anyplace lower than 5 meters above sea level and/or within 20 or so miles of the disaster area is at extreme risk from wind, storm surge, and catastrophic flash-flooding.
Florida Matthew Information & Florida Shelters by County
Over one million people in Florida, Georgia, South & North Carolina are under evacuation orders. For those on or near the east coast of Florida, Georgia, or South Carolina, especially from Boca Raton to Charleston, your time is about up: leave now if at all possible. This is a catastrophic storm with the potential to wipe entire neighborhoods down to the concrete slabs. Much of the Florida peninsula, the lower parts of Georgia, and the south eastern half of South Carolina will be without power, Internet/phone, and water for days.
Savannah/Georgia Shelters by County
South Carolina Evac & Route Info
For those on or near the coast of North Carolina, make plans now to evacuate in the next few hours. If the storm jags toward you, you may not have time later.
For those in the DC metro region and northward: as of now the center of the storm is projected to move east and spare you the worst damage. But Matthew can change (For context, DC metro residents have not experienced a storm quite like this for decades.)
Kos Check in by Vet’s Wife
The difference between the most costly disaster in US history and a near miss comes down to a few degrees change in the track over the next few hours. Keep abreast of the latest projections at the National Hurricane Center here. Some personal observations of what sitting through a mere Cat 2 hurricane can be like.
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I want to try and get through to anyone who is toying with the notion of staying just how bad a hurricane can be, even when it’s not a headline generating Category 3 or worse. In 2004 and 2005, I sat out several Category 2 hurricanes in Florida. It was not fun, this is not an adventure to seek out. Wind and rain and flotsam slam your house for hours on end. It’s like being inside a tin-shack in a terrible thunderstorm out on a driving range being pelted by golf-balls and an occasional hurling bowling ball. The walls breathe and flex, a peek through a slit in a storm window only shows sheets of water and pieces of your neighborhood peeling off and whizzing by, bits of plaster drift down like indoor snowflakes. Trees whip around, their arms flailing like alien anemones, thick branches crack off like gunshots.
It’s fucking loud and there’s nothing to do but listen to it, mentally reviewing homeowners’ insurance and hoping you won’t suddenly be able to see daylight through a tattered gap in the ceiling: power and Internet are long gone. No phone, no showers or taps working—we couldn’t even flush the toilet without a bathtub full of water and a big bucket to pour into it. In more than one storm, this cacophony went on all day and night, and the after effects were brutal. It is humid, there is no light, windows are boarded up, it’s dank.
Every creek turns into a raging river, rivers overflow and form swirling lakes; the ocean rolls in from miles away to pound on doorsteps and sweep away yards. Power lines zip and spit in anger before going dead and going down. You eat out of cans, bread goes moldy and milk bad in record time, insects, frogs, and lizards come out of drains and walls in droves, they feast on any scraps of food left behind. Pets shiver and yelp.
When you finally venture out the scene can be surreal. Streets become so littered with mud and debris that you sometimes cannot tell where they were. Trees uprooted, torn root and branch easily from the sandy soil, some driven through boarded up windows; chimneys and roofs are leaning or missing; telephone poles and stop lights lurch precariously; the only mailboxes still standing are made of stone.
This is what it’s like to sit out a near miss by a Cat 2 storm! This is in a house miles away from the coast built to codes enacted after Hurricane Andrew. Steel-reinforced cinder block walls tied off with metal fasteners to double 2X8 rafters. So my rule of thumb was to always bail if there was a real chance of a Cat 3 or higher passing by. I never had to do that, but residents of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina are facing exactly that decision now. And if you needed more reason to bail, there is now even a small chance the storm will boomerang back toward Florida starting Tuesday.
The media covers big storms well, and we tend to get tunnel vision on the monster versions. A Cat 2 or higher can submerge a neighborhood, rip off roofs, and tear down walls to the foundation. The major Cat 3 or worse hurricanes can plow the ground. I’ve seen mobile home parks wiped out, entire stands of tall trees just gone, concrete slabs moved and crumbling: a Cat 2 can rearrange a coastline. Never under estimate a Category 2.
Now keep in mind, odds are Matthew will not be a Cat 2 when and if it hits KSC. It could be much worse. Do not risk getting caught in the open as the storm hits. These winds can move SUVs over rain-slick surfaces like a sailboat, 80 MPH gales will knock you flat to the ground and blast you with shrapnel, 120 MPH or higher wind can pitch you over buildings like a rag doll.
Matthew’s winds will gust over150 MPH, it could wipe a neighborhood clean. Surges and waves will amplify or dampen chaotically, leaving some neighborhoods standing and others washed into newly created strata. If you’re in one of the latter places, they probably won’t even find your body in the twisted wreckage, as it and your mortal remains will be lucky to get bulldozed into a hastily dug landfill. If it’s adventure you want, evacuating, riding it out inland or in a shelter, and then returning to what used to be your neighborhood will provide plenty of excitement and tall tales.
Just getting a few more miles inland could mean the difference between a hell of a story and tragedy. If that’s simply not an option, be prepared to seek high ground immediately, the upper stairwells of steel-reinforced concrete parking garages or similar robust structures can offer critical protection in a pinch. If you plan to stay in a house—not recommended!—and intend to move to an attic to avoid rising water for example, make sure you have the tools to bust through rafters and shingles to create an escape route onto the roof.
If you’re on the east coast of Florida or Georgia or South Carolina, this is starting to look like it won’t be comparable to anything you may have endured in 2004 or 2005. At the current forecast and track, Matthew is in a whole ‘nother class of disaster.