I've been pretty disappointed by the plethora of articles that I've read about what a Trump Presidency will look like.
My thesis is pretty simple: President Trump and his Republican allies in Congress as well as at the state level will go a long way towards making America into a fascist and perhaps even theocratic state.
Why? Because government will no longer be able to restrain naked capitalism.
[Note: I realize that there’s been a lot written about Trump’s possible trade and other foreign policies. I’m going to ignore those issues here. I think the destruction of The American Republic is a sufficiently substantive subject for one Diary. Let me also add that there’s been a lot of meritorious discussion about the rise of the alt-right, the threats to freedom of the press and so forth. All of that’s important, but I’m going to stick to policy here for the most part.]
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When I became a minor county party official here in a red state, I was asked to make a few remarks.
What I said was pretty simple: being a Democrat is not about specific social issues such as gay rights, gun control, or even reproductive rights, but rather about DEMOCRACY itself.
The role of government is be a representative of the people, against the otherwise unopposed nature of free market capitalism. Unchecked free markets have a tendency to destroy themselves, and the societies in which they're embedded.
You can think of this argument as the mirror image of why capitalists oppose communism. Communism tends to concentrate economic power in the hands of a small number of party apparatchiks, which means it devolves into something little better than fascism.
If you really believe that concentration of economic power leads to concentration of political power, then you must also oppose unrestrained capitalism (sometimes called Libertarianism).
The role of government is to stand with the people to protect workers, consumers, the environment, anyone else who can't help themselves (such as children), and even markets themselves.
That's right, I said "markets" - because when capitalism is unbalanced by government, then wealth concentrates to such an extent that political power is held by a few. You can call them "robber barons" if you like. Once political and economic power become monopolized by a handful of families and individuals, then there can be no free markets. The entire country becomes one big "company town."
And there can be no true democracy, civil rights, human rights or even free markets in a company town.
Capitalism without restraints tends to make all nations -- regardless of their history and culture -- into fascist dictatorships. Viz., oligarchies in which a small number of very rich people and families control everything, and the rest of us live as little more than their effectively-indentured servants.
That's exactly the direction in which a Trump Presidency will take us. How far, and how quickly, remains to be seen.
But what's not presently in doubt is WHY and HOW.
Why Trump Will Let Government Be Dismantled
Let's start with the "why" part of the equation, because that's simple enough.
Mr. Donald John Trump cares only about two things: his power (image) and his wallet. There is no "there" there. He has no other value system.
By extension, he does care about his family's image and their wallets. And he cares also about his core supporters (the 15% or so of adult Americans who voted for him, instead of against Hill.)
Does infrastructure spending truly matter to Trump? I doubt it. It affects neither his power nor his wallet.
What if Republicans want to roll back gay marriage? Assuming they get control of the Federal Courts, that won't be too difficult. Trump's core supporters (mostly) don't care, and probably would approve.
We can talk about myriad other issues, but these will arise when we discuss HOW government will be dismantled.
How The Government Will Be Dismantled
1) The Federal Courts are "packed." The Republicans in the Senate have been opposing our Democratic Presidents' nominees for decades. Look for them to invoke the "nuclear option," vastly expand the Federal Judiciary, and appoint the most socially-conservative nominees possible. Deference to governmental power (so long as its exercised by Republicans) is a must. Obviously this begins with the Supreme Court, but it will go down into the Appeals Courts and the District Courts.
2) Federal Supremacy is invoked for new Congressional legislation. How much of a chance do you think that state laws which legalize abortion, restrict greenhouse gasses, or establish a higher minimum wage will have, under a Republican Congress and a Trump Presidency? Zero, zip, nada. (And in any event, the GOP controls the state legislatures and the gubernatorial mansions in the vast majority of states.)
3) Putting "foxes" in charge of the "chicken coops." That's easy enough. If you want the Department of the Interior to issue oil drilling licenses like candy given away to children on Halloween night, then put an energy company lobbyist in charge. If you want the USDA to stop inspecting food producers, then put someone from the food industry in charge. If you don't like the EEOC, then put someone in charge who admires David Duke.
4) Outright abolition of agencies and departments. If I were employed by the National Endowment for the Arts, or the Department of Education, I'd be looking for another job right now. The National Science Foundation? Forget it, science is bad so far as Republicans are concerned (except where it’s directly connected to national security).
5) Draconian budget cuts. Sure, some federal employees are protected by civil service laws. But every federal agency or department has to have a budget to do more than pay salaries. What happens if the Securities and Exchange Commission has no office space or computers? You get the idea.
6) Handing over Federal functions to private firms and/or selling federal assets. We’ve seen how this plays out in Russia, as well as in many U.S. cities, counties, and states.
Some Priorities of Trump and the GOP
(This is not intended to be a complete list, and it’s in no particular order. And yes, I’ve left out some really obvious stuff like tax “reform.”)
1) Immigration. Immigration in all forms is an ill wind that blows no one any good, according to Trump and his core supporters. A few companies will be able to pay huge fees to hire foreign CEOs and other top exec.s. Students will still be able to come (but in smaller numbers). Look for a massive overhaul of legal immigration. Deportations of undocumented people will continue in large numbers. Yes, walls and fences will be extended. Border patrol agents and ICE agents will be hired in large numbers. Of course tourist visas will continue to be issued, but undoubtedly there will be severe restrictions on those issued to folks from non-European nations, and perhaps an extensive vetting process. Tough luck for the tourist, travel and hospitality sectors, but they don't have a lot of leverage.
2) Gun laws. Not only will all Federal firearms laws be repealed, but federal enforcement and oversight will be rendered virtually non-extant. State laws that restrict purchase or acquisition of weapons will be preempted. Watch right-wing militias stock up on everything from tanks to artillery pieces, and even fighter aircraft. If American Democracy is eventually destroyed as a result of a Trump Presidency, these "private armies" may play a role - albeit in the service of wealthy autocrats. (We saw this "movie" before in Europe, in the early part of the Twentieth Century.)
3) Reproductive rights. After a newly-constituted Supreme Court overrules Roe, look for state abortion laws to be preempted by national legislation indicating that "life begins at conception," which will be approved by the Federal Courts under Section 5 of the Fourteenth Amendment. The FDA will pull all non-surgical options such as the morning after pill from the market.
4) Virtually all federal and state authority that protects workers, consumers, and the environment. (See above.) Since the federal minimum wage is so low, there's little reason to repeal it. But higher state and local minimum wages will be preempted, except as they apply to state and local government workers (and there will be many fewer of these, as GOP-controlled state governments continue to outsource).
5) Speaking of outsourcing, look for most non-protected federal workers to terminated in favor of private firms. Trump and his business associates will make massive amounts of money on private prisons (for one thing). Forget the national parks, they'll be handed over to Disney or some other private entities. And yes, the IRS will be privatized, as will much of the Justice Department. These will eventually be controlled by some Trump-related firm(s) that can be counted upon to go after his enemies.
6) All federal regulation that affects banks, markets, and investment firms will either be repealed, or handed over to "foxes" who will render the force of these statutes ineffective. Forget FinReg and SOx, those are going to be explicitly repealed. Do you think Trump really cares about Glass-steagall? Think again. He and his family will make more money without it. Wall Street and the GOP hate it, too.
7) Education, science and the arts. The Federal government should have no role in any of these, according to Trump's core supporters. Even the CDC will be under threat (NSF is history, it will be absorbed into DARPA). Forget about the Department of Education, it's toast. Federal funding for non-defense research or all forms of education will be history by next year. The national GOP has hated public education for a century, and there is little else that they loathe more than science and the arts. This is their chance to move all of these functions back to the private sector, in tandem with their allies at the state and local levels.
What Will be Left of The Government?
(Also not intended to be an exhaustive list, and in no particular order.)
1) National security and immigration enforcement. These are critical features of the Federal government, according to Trump's core supporters and the GOP. Look for a massive budget increases in these areas. At the local level, we might see increased funding for police departments, although states will be encouraged to privatize them (as well as fire departments).
2) Social security and Medicare. These are the two federal programs that Trump will likely not touch, on the grounds that his core supporters will object. Ryan and Pence won’t be pleased, but as long as they get everything else they want, they’ll be happy.
3) Farm subsidies and other programs that principally benefit either Trump's core supporters and large firms.
4) Civil Rights legislation? We may see a return to "Jim Crow" under the guise of State's Rights, because there will be no Federal Court enforcement. Forget the Voting Rights Act, it's toast. It will take a while to get rid of GLBTQ rights, but I suspect they're on their way out as well. (Let's not forget Pence's history here in Indiana.)
5) Religious freedom is also an open question. Jew,s Mormons and Catholics might eventually end up looking over their shoulders, along with Methodists. Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists? Forget it. Remember that the states were permitted to financially support religions when the American Republic was first established. To the extent that government functions are to be increasingly privatized, we might see conservative Protestant churches inherit some of these functions. These may in turn become (effectively) businesses, thus sealing a long-term merger between political and theocratic power. Think of Henry VIII.
How Soon Will The American Republic End?
I personally don't believe that the US will devolve into a fascist theocratic state under President Trump. This will be too difficult so long as Trump lacks control of local police forces. (Students of history will recall that this is the first portfolio that Hitler demanded when he became Chancellor of Germany.)
However the resulting concentration of economic power may make this result inevitable within a few decades. Right wing organizations, armed with massive amounts of weapons will undoubtedly be critical players, just as they have in many fascist states.
One very likely scenario centers around another Great Depression. By removing as many regulations as possible that govern banks and the capital markets, it seems not at all unlikely that there will be another huge market crash. Then the well-armed right wing militias will step in. (Yes, this really could look like early Twentieth-Century Europe.)
Perhaps Ivanka may "shatter the glass ceiling" to become America's First Top Female Public Official. (After all, Trump’s family will be worth many trillions by the end of his Presidency.)
If Ivanka does ascend to this peak of power, she will be President-for-Life, AKA our Dictator.
And her Daddy will be so proud.