Those born into wealth, who grew up mumbling instantly obeyed orders around their golden pacifiers, may have a bit of a problem with this idea: Saying something doesn’t always make it so. Donald Trump, who went through the campaign promising to bring back vanished manufacturing jobs, end crime in a weekend, and literally make all your dreams come true, has now discovered a slight snag.
… Donald J. Trump was elected president based on a straightforward promise to make the United States great again. He aimed his message primarily at tens of millions of white working-class Americans who feel left behind in the growing economic prosperity, undercut by the advancement of minorities and women, competition from illegal immigrants at home and cheap workers in other countries.
This week, Mr. Trump is being forced to acknowledge that his straightforward solutions are, in fact, much less straightforward than he promised they would be.
“Straightforward” may not be the best adjective to describe Trump’s promises. “Outrageous” is a bit closer. Or perhaps “Ludicrous.”
The problem with running a campaign on nothing but over-the-top headlines is that, should you win, voters may expect some content. Since Trump’s policies have all the depth of the skin on sour milk, Trump voters may not be getting quite what they expected.
Many of Trump’s policies are unlikely to have much to do with Trump or anything he promised. Paul Ryan already has a complete plan for screwing up the nation, including replacing Medicare with vouchers and wrecking public education. Since Trump has nothing in those slots, it will be easy enough to scratch out Ryan and write in Trump on any number of topics.
Even when it comes to his signature xenophobia, Trump will find he can’t just rub the little wealth genie he’s counted on all his life to make things happen.
The big and beautiful wall might look more like a fence. Most of the estimated 11 million illegal immigrants won’t be summarily deported, he said, backing off a line from stump speeches earlier in the campaign. Perhaps only two or three million — just the bad guys. That number is in the ballpark of deportations in the Obama administration. Undocumented immigrants who are not criminals, he said, are “terrific people.”
But don’t worry. The policies that under Obama were “open borders” and an “invasion” of “bad hombres,” will become a secure border under Trump, with every person shipped across the border celebrated as proof of Trump’s incomparable toughness. It’ll be wall-ish.
Those whose hold-their-nose issue on Trump was trade rather than immigrants, should expect even less follow-through.
Mr. Trump has not yet clarified his promises on trade, but most experts say it will be very hard to simply walk away from Nafta and impose a 45 percent tariff against imports from China. “In an age of global supply chains,” said Dani Rodrik of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard, “you cannot take a chain saw to trade agreements and not end up cutting your foot off.”
NAFTA is unlikely to change. TPP is dead, but then it always was. The manufacturing jobs simply aren’t coming back, in part because those jobs—the well-paying jobs of decades past—simply don’t exist. Not here. Not elsewhere. Not anywhere.
... where does that leave Donald Trump’s supporters? To Larry Bartels, the political scientist at Vanderbilt University, the apparent shift in Mr. Trump’s position is unsurprising. Politicians don’t follow the interests of average voters, he argues, they hew to the interests of the rich.
There are definitely Trump policies that will be enacted. Taxes will go down, for the rich. Regulations will be reduced, for corporations. Workers will be left holding an empty basket, like always.
There is one other critical group of voters who can expect a handout from Trump.
… he is also set to deliver enormous gains to Wall Street by undoing core provisions of the Dodd-Frank Act, which was established to hem in the financial sector and prevent a repeat of the crisis of 2008.
Rich? Check. Corporations? Check. Wall Street? Check. Work done. Let the trickle down begin.
However, going back to that paragraph about Trump’s message ...
He aimed his message primarily at tens of millions of white working-class Americans who feel left behind in the growing economic prosperity, undercut by the advancement of minorities and women, competition from illegal immigrants at home and cheap workers in other countries.
There is something Trump and Republicans can do. They can hobble the progress of immigrants, make it easier to discriminate against both women and minorities, and make sure that the lives of low-paid workers are as miserable as possible.
Honestly, that may be more than enough to keep Trump voters happy.