I don’t think Toomey has hit 50% in ~2 months, if even any times. He’s always been stuck in the 40s, sometimes high, more times mid and low.
Minimal effect from the Comey surprise:
The poll was conducted after news broke about the FBI investigation of new emails during Clinton's tenure as Secretary of State. Only 4% of Pennsylvania voters say this news caused them to change their minds about which candidate they would support. The vast majority (89%) say these latest developments have had no impact on their vote and 6% are unaware of the news. Among those who changed their vote, Trump has less than a 2:1 advantage, meaning the overall presidential vote margin shifted by no more than one percentage point specifically due to this breaking news.
Trump trails women only by 3; 48-45 Hillary. That has tightened from 55-35 Hillary just last month. That is pretty shocking to me.
Hillary’s favorable rating dropped to 36%, from 44% last month. But Trump is still worse at 32% favorable rating.
I’m confident that Hillary and McGinty will win. Hopefully their strength in the suburbs will translate to picking up PA-08 seat.