Quinnipiac University just released four polls this afternoon, all post-Comey “bombshell,” and the results should give hand-wringing Democrats a reason to breath a tad easier.
FLORIDA: Clinton 46 - Trump 45, Johnson 2
NORTH CAROLINA: Clinton 47 - Trump 44, Johnson 3
OHIO: Trump 46 - Clinton 41, Johnson 5
PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 48 - Trump 43, Johnson 3
More to come as we delve into the numbers further ….
From the release:
Florida
Hillary Clinton is ahead 48 - 42 percent among Florida voters who already have cast ballots. Florida likely voters don't like either candidate, giving Clinton a negative 44 - 54 percent favorability rating and giving Trump a negative 40 - 57 percent favorability.
The gender gap is small as women likely voters back Clinton 49 - 43 percent, while men go 47 percent for Trump and 44 percent for Clinton. White voters back Trump 58 - 34 percent while non-white voters back Clinton 72 - 21 percent.
Trump leads 88 - 7 percent among Republican voters and 46 - 40 percent among independent voters. Clinton takes Democrats 86 - 8 percent.
"Racial patterns are clearly evident in the Florida voting. Hillary Clinton is getting about a third of whites in Florida, to Trump's 58 percent. Non-whites, however, break strongly for her," Brown said.
North Carolina
North Carolina early voters back Clinton 58 - 36 percent.
The candidates are running neck and neck in the unfavorable race, with a negative 41 - 54 percent favorability rating for Clinton and a negative 40 - 53 percent rating for Trump.
North Carolina women likely voters back Clinton 52 - 42 percent, while men back Trump 46 - 41 percent. White voters go to Trump 59 - 33 percent, while non-white voters back Clinton 77 - 10 percent.
Trump leads 88 - 6 percent among Republicans and 45 - 38 percent among independent voters. Democrats back Clinton 91 - 6 percent.
"Hillary Clinton has a narrow edge over Donald Trump in North Carolina when it comes to keeping her party base home. She has a tad better score among women than Trump has among men. But the closeness of the North Carolina race shows itself in what voters think of the candidates," Brown said.
Ohio
Ohio early voters back Clinton 58 - 32 percent.
Trump squeaks out a tiny lead in the Ohio unfavorable race, with a negative 39 - 56 percent favorability, compared to Clinton's negative 37 - 59 percent score.
The Republican's lead is built on his 48 - 38 percent lead among men, compared to Clinton's 44 - 44 percent tie among women.
Trump leads 88 - 5 percent among Republicans and 48 - 30 percent among independent voters. Democrats back Clinton 89 - 7 percent.
"The 48 - 30 percent lead for Donald Trump among independent voters is pretty overwhelming. Ohio has a large number of voters that the Trump campaign has targeted. The Buckeye state is full of those who feel they have lost their jobs because of unfair trade treaties, and non-college educated whites," Brown said.
Pennsylvania
Clinton is ahead in the unfavorable race in Pennsylvania, with a negative 41 - 56 percent favorability rating, which is less bad than Trump's negative 37 - 60 percent score.
Pennsylvania women likely voters back Clinton 56 - 36 percent, outweighing Trump's 51 - 39 percent lead among men.
Clinton leads 85 - 12 percent among Democrats and 42 - 38 percent among independent voters. Trump takes Republicans 85 - 9 percent. "Hillary Clinton's solid 6-point lead two weeks ago is now a less comfortable 5-point lead, but it's a lead just the same at a time when every percentage point is scrutinized and any poll movement heightens anxiety," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. From October 27 - November 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
- 626 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points;
- 602 North Carolina likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points;
- 589 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points;
- 612 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.
Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.
Unfortunately, these numbers do represent a tightening from Q’s last round of polls, but that might just be Republicans coming home. Here’s the detailed matchups:
Four-way races which list both presidential and vice-presidential candidates show:
- Florida: Clinton gets 46 percent to Trump's 45 percent, with 2 percent for Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson and 2 percent for Green party candidate Jill Stein. Clinton edged Trump 48 - 44 percent October 17;
- North Carolina: Clinton at 47 percent to Trump's 44 percent, with 3 percent for Johnson. Clinton squeaked by Trump 47 - 43 percent October 27;
- Ohio: Trump leads Clinton 46 - 41 percent, with 5 percent for Johnson and 2 percent for Stein. Clinton and Trump tied 45 - 45 percent October 17;
- Pennsylvania: Clinton leads Trump 48 - 43 percent, with 3 percent for Johnson and 3 percent for Stein. Clinton topped Trump 47 - 41 percent October 17.