To regain the majority in the House of Representatives in the 2018 election, Democrats must take around 30 seats from the Republicans. The current map shows 35 Republican House Districts on either the Gulf or Atlantic coasts. I have not studied all these 35 districts in detail, but I would ASSUME they all have coastal populations and infrastructure which are dangerously exposed to rapidly rising sea levels. Florida alone contains 14 of these coastal districts. And nearly all of Florida is vulnerable. Victory in all these Republican coastal districts would give the Democrats a narrow majority in the House of Representatives.
Many naysayers would argue that ONLY a major recession could put these mostly Republican coastal districts in play for the Democrats. But the big Democrat congressional landslide victories of 1964 and 2006 were due to something other than the economy - WAR. And today, these districts face a threat as serious as war: RISING SEAS and economic collapse caused by Global Warming. This is the political opportunity of a generation for Democrats if they choose to seize it.
Ah, but the naysayers will argue that sea level rise is too far away in the future. And voters (Democrats or Republicans) NEVER look decades ahead when deciding how to vote. And this is partly true. Actual sea level rise of 1 to 6 feet is projected to occur somewhere between 2050 and 2100. And voters don't look THAT far ahead. But if we don't at least begin phasing out of fossil fuels in the next 10 years, the economic collapse in these coastal districts may come as soon as the 2020s. For coastal property owners with a 30-year mortgage, that is a BIG DEAL.
Let me explain using Florida as an example. Banks will not write 30 year mortgages on coastal property if the property is likely to be lost to rising seas during the term of the loan. In low lying South Florida, up to ONE MILLION buildings will be flooded by the 2060s. (You can read more about that here.) So banks will likely stop writing 30-year mortgages in South Florida by the late 2020s, if not sooner. And once banks stop lending, property values will collapse, even if coastal flooding is still 20 to 30 years away.
With the election of Donald Trump to the White House and Republican control of Congress, the worst-case scenario for Global Warming is back on the table. And this means no meaningful reductions in global warming emissions. In fact, emissions from the United States might actually climb sharply instead of continuing their recent downward trend. And this result might drive a 2 feet rise in sea levels by the 2050s. Goodbye Miami. Goodbye South Florida. Goodbye Charleston, South Carolina. Goodbye Jersey Shore. Goodbye New York City subway system. But again, property prices in these coastal cities will collapse in the 2020s as 30 year mortgage financing becoming unavailable.
So Democrats now have an issue which hits the pocketbook of every property owner along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. And Democrats could even win EVERY Florida Congressional Seat and nearly every seat in Florida state government if they simply harmonized a clear and terrifying message about rapid sea level rise. Specifically, the FINANCIAL RUIN rising seas will bring to every Florida property owner. Even those who live inland. How might that campaign work?
First, Florida Democrats must recruit strong candidates in each of the Republican coastal districts. Second, Democrats must launch a comprehensive direct mail campaign aimed at every single property owner within 4 feet of the current high tide line. This direct mail should include a local map displaying the projected high tide line for the year 2050 IF WE KEEP BURNING FOSSIL FUELS. And the projected storm surge line as well. The direct mail piece must also explain that by 2030 if not sooner, banks are likely to stop mortgage lending in these low lying communities. And the direct mail piece should conclude with this message, "If Republicans win in 2018, your property may be worthless by the 2020s."
Third, this direct mail campaign must be reinforced with TV advertising explaining this catastrophe so that people without property will also be talking about what is coming. And that the collapse of the coastal Florida economy will drag down the economy for the rest of the state as well. Even inland cities and towns. This direct mail and TV campaign must be written in a way to INDUCE PANIC among South Florida property owners. Nothing less will do. Only then, will Democrats have a decent chance of taking these Florida coastal districts away from the Republicans. And a decent chance of holding these districts indefinitely.
Florida is the state most vulnerable to sea level rise. But all along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts (Texas, Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia, Jersey Shore, etc.) are Republican coastal districts with BILLIONS of dollars in vulnerable coastal real estate and infrastructure. If Democrats can also induce panic among these property owners as well, these coastal districts may also vote for Democrats and Climate Action in 2018. And with that the Democrats could win the House of Representatives and begin to push back on President Trump and Global Warming. Specifically, by enforcing the Paris Climate agreement. And beginning efforts to phase in a carbon tax and negotiate a Global Treaty to Reforest the Earth. The Democrats should get started on this project NOW.