It’s the morning of Nov. 3, so we have 5 full days of campaigning left and then election day. We’ve had a lot of new information about Florida over the past 2 days, so I’d like to share some information from Steve Schale, the TargetSmart poll of FL which shocked the polling establishment (and was then quickly ignored when CNN/ORC and Quinnipiac put forward some traditional polls), and my own observations.
First, from Schale. His new memo is out. You can read it here: steveschale.squarespace.com/…
Here are some basic facts:
- 4.7 million ballots have been cast. (4,687,113) to be precise. Schale believes that represents 52% of the likely electorate. As compared to the 2012 electorate, the total votes cast thus far represent 55% of the 2012 total. Over half of FL has already voted!!
- Registered GOP ballots cast exceed registered Dem ballots cast by 11,000 or .2%. The breakdown is 40% GOP — 39.8% Dem — 20.2% Unaffiliated. The raw margin has narrowed in the last few days as in-person voting overtakes vote by mail.
- 1,085,676 ballots have not been returned. Dems still have 84,088 more ballots to return than GOP. GET YOUR DAMN BALLOTS IN PEOPLE!!!!!!
Key trends:
- Dems continue to outperform the GOP in the Tampa area. Dems won the vote by mail and in person vote in Hillsborough (thank you Tampa Dems for returning your ballots at a higher rate).
- Based on Schale’s memo, Central FL — the 3 counties encompassing Greater Orlando (Seminole, Osceola, and Orange), is becoming bluer thanks to surge of unlikely voters, driven by Latino voters.
- South Florida’s vote is coming in strong, especially in Broward and Miami-Dade. AA vote has been trending upwards. Schale notes that Palm Beach County is a little behind where it should be, and Clinton will need to get a big vote and an improved margin out of there to secure a win.
- Dems are more than holding their own in Jacksonville (Duval County) which is key to keeping Trump’s margins low. President Obama is headed there today to push up the AA vote.
- The overall electorate looks like it will be more diverse than 2012.
- Probably the biggest thing defining the FL election is the unaffiliated (no party affiliated (NPA)) vote. That vote skews latino and millennial. Those folks are representing a higher and higher share of the electorate and they are voting for Hillary. In the Orlando area, 55% of latinos casting votes have not voted or voted only once in the last 3 elections. They are voting for HRC. Among whites who have not voted that often, they too are trending more Dem than white voters who did vote in 2012.
- Lastly, Schale finds more evidence that the GOP is cannibalizing its election day vote to stay level with us. In Fort Myers, for example, turnout has dropped the last few days after spiking in the first week. Schale takes that as as a sign that they’re exhausting their e-day vote. Unlike 2008, Democrats may likely have more election day voters available to vote than Republicans.
- In North FL, turnout is starting to trend up, but Dems in the region are also voting at a high rate. Generally speaking, better turnout in N.Fl is good for Trump, but our goal is to hold down the margin and the indication is that we’re on track to do that.
Now, there have been a lot of diaries on the TargetSmart poll showing HRC up +8 overall, +17 among the EV and pulling 28% of GOP early voters. Steve Schale disagrees vehemently with the poll, and he and I got into a brief twitter exchange with him on it. Schale is the man in FL. He guided Obama’s 2 wins in FL with his electoral modeling.
Although Schale disagrees with Tom Bonier/TargetSmart, I think the poll actually complements Schale’s own analysis. It also helps us take a deeper dive beyond party labels into figuring out how people are voting.
What TargetSmart and Schale are both telling us is that NPA voters are making up an increasing portion of the electorate; a lot of them are unlikely voters; and they are skewing Dem. TargetSmart adds that among the GOP early voter, a large number (likely Latino registered GOPers and suburban white women who are registered GOP) are splitting their tickets and voting for HRC & Rubio. Schale’s models, I suspect, assume a more polarized electorate. TargetSmart has found some cracks in the traditional GOP coalition, which are being driven by Trump’s divisiveness.
As Trump gets more of his working class white and older white voters to vote, HRC’s net positive crossover vote will decline. TargetSmart does say that the race is tied among those who are yet to vote.
However, I think Democrats are going to outvote Republicans on election day. First, Trump is getting his vote out right now. Places like Ft. Myers and the Villages and 4 or 5 other key GOP counties are turning out in large numbers, exceeding 2012. Those voters are tea party nuts. They’re not cross-over votes. It freaks Dems out; yet, that vote is being offset by the large NPA vote (many of whom are unlikely voters). We still have a lot of regular voters yet to vote, and I think his base of available voters is declining.
As for the recent state polling which has been somewhat favorable for HRC? I don’t care too much about the polling, but it suggests that respondents aren't moved by Comey, and that polling is starting to return to where it was prior to the Bloomberg FL poll of last week (HRC +3).
Now, this is by no means a done deal. We can do a better job of getting our vote out in Jacksonville, Palm Beach and unreturned ballots. There really is no excuse for sitting at home or on the fence in this election. But I do think the data point to Hillary having the inside track to win FL by a larger margin than Obama did in 2012. I maintain that she will win FL by 300,000 to 500,000 votes (or about 3% — 5%).