Texas merited a true ‘blue’ media poll from NBC/WSJ/Marist yesterday. “Trump up 9” it proclaims in Texas. Among likely voters it says. With registered voters it was Trump +4. Oops! Why the huge difference.
Texas doesn’t historically vote.
Likely voter screens ask questions to gauge their voting history. Welcome to a bunch of new voters in Texas, America. Turnout is up in Texas’ major counties; Harris County has cast just under 870,000 early votes alone. Several organizations had mailers hitting yesterday, today, and tomorrow to get lagging voters to the polls. (There is one in Spanish that explains the damned Voter ID rules too. Memo to all candidates in Harris County and Texas in general, PUT YOUR MATERIAL IN SPANISH TOO!)
Latino Decisions shows an increased interest in Latinos voting and it is showing up in places like Florida already. This Marist poll is underestimating Latino turnout in Arizona, just like Texas.
I, among countless people here, have been screaming that the LV screens were too tight for media polls. They haven’s captured POC voices at all this cycle. In fact, where are the articles about Hillary’s hidden strengths? This entire damned election has been about Trump’s voters. F*** THAT!
Looking at VAN yesterday, (my partner did) our precinct still has its traditional election day democratic voters to go. So there are still votes to be had in Harris County. Getting them out today or Tuesday is critical. Steve Schale, the Florida guru, talks about managing margins in Florida. I think Texas is going to be hitting that arena very soon. If we can keep our new voters engaged, show Abbott, Patrick, and Ted Cruz with Donald Trump in every ad in 2018, then the GOP is going to have to manage margins in Harris County and elsewhere.
I just became a precinct chair in September. I’ve met all kinds of candidates, seen all kinds of push cards, and GOTV operations. Democrats are engaged here. New voters are going to the polls. Texas is voting. Polls don’t see it because they aren’t looking. Texas will be a lot closer than pundits expect.
I can’t wait for Tuesday night!