Before I write anything else: GOTV. I live in NH now and canvassed yesterday. I work legal protection Tuesday (which I hope will not be as bad as Florida). I am going to call into Florida this afternoon (my cell has a Tampa are code) to GOTV.
This estimate is in part based on two polls: CNN and Quinippiac with good cross-tabs. Both are A rated pollsters, and both had Clinton up narrowly.
Lets start with the basic numbers. Florida Early Voting numbers are reported by Party Registration. The numbers below are as of this morning for the Florida Secretary of State website.
Florida Early Voting Numbers
|Type of Ballot
|NO PartY Affiliation
|Third Party Affiliation
total margin (Including my
NPA projected margin)
|Total 2016 ev turnout
|total 2012 ev turnout
A couple of observations:
1. This is insanely close obviously. Anyone around Florida Politics and knows anything never expects anything less.
2. These numbers are not as good as 2012 (Obama won the early vote by 3.8%) — but it is important understand that is not an apples to apples comparison. There is substantial evidence that some voters with Democratic Registrations have changed party registration. Many of these voters haven’t voted Democratic in years. This is one explanation why the GOP appears to be doing better in deep red parts of Florida like the panhandle than in 2012. But the people I know and trust suspect some of this improvement isn’t real.
3. We should expect this margin to go up: today will be a large “souls to polls” voter program in Black churches.
Having said all of this, clearly understanding more about the No Party Affiliation voters is critical.
So this is the estimate. The racial breakdown of the NPA is taken from Michael McDonald from the University of Florida. The recent CNN poll (an A rated pollster that had Clinton ahead) had cross-tabs. I compare the non-white to Quinippiac (the did not break the White vote by gender).
Though Trump wins the White Vote by a substantial margin, the non-white vote is large enough among the NPA to more than make up for that. And this is in fact the story of Florida. While there some evidence that the African American turnout may be down, the Hispanic vote, particularly in the I-4 corridor will more than makeup for the difference.
Anyone who says they know who wins Florida is crazy, but the Early voting numbers suggest good Hispanic turnout, and I like our chances.