The final Muhlenberg poll in Pennsylvania for the 2016 presidential shows Hillary Clinton with a 6 point lead in a matchup with Donald Trump, 48% to 42%, with leaners. Without leaners, it’s 47% to 41%. In a four way contest, she leads 44% to 40%. But to be honest, I don’t even look at four way contests anymore. Gary Johnson isn’t going to even come close to how high he’s polling in these surveys and neither is Jill Stein.
Strangely enough, I’ve actually been by Muhlenberg College. It’s very beautiful. I just didn’t realize it until I saw pictures of it online. Two of my best friends live just outside Allentown. And I will be visiting them for Thanksgiving this year! Yay!
In any case, Muhlenberg has a very solid record in PA over the past few presidential races.
In 2004, their final poll showed Kerry winning PA by 2 and he won it by about 2.5.
In 2008, their final poll showed Obama winning PA by 6 and he won it by about 10.
And in 2012, their final poll showed Obama winning PA by 3 and he won it by just over 5.
This year, I think HRC +6 is just about right. I’m a little more worried about Michigan than Pennsylvania, but I believe we’ll win both. And who knows, we might even sweep the swing states, minus Iowa (sigh).
Here’s a link to that poll:
www.mcall.com/...
Unfortunately, they show Katie McGinty trailing Toomey by one point, so we have some work to do there people!!!