My predictions for 2016. President above the fold, Senate below the fold. It’s not to late to try and win some delicious babka, so enter the Daily Kos Elections prediction contest!
PRESIDENT |
ARizona |
T+1 |
Colorado |
C+6 |
Florida |
C+3 |
Georgia |
T+3 |
Iowa |
T+7 |
Michigan |
C+9 |
Nevada |
C+6 |
New Hampshire |
C+9 |
North Carolina |
C+2 |
Ohio |
T+1 |
Pennsylvania |
C+5 |
Virginia |
C+7 |
Final Electoral College tally:
Clinton: 323
Trump: 215
In the popular vote:
Clinton +5.0
The potential for a bigger win still exists, as does the potential for a narrower win. The fact that Arizona and Georgia are on that chart, while Iowa and Ohio appear lost, dramatically highlights the massive geographic realignment we’re seeing in our politics.
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Iowa is more pessimistic than the national polling because I have a simple rule there: always go with Ann Selzer’s numbers, and she has it Trump +7.
Nevada is more optimistic than the national polling because I also have a simple rule there: always go with Jon Ralston, the state’s premier political reporter and analyst, and he has it 46-40 Clinton.
Florida polling is tight as you might imagine. But I’m looking at the early vote, and adding two points for the crazy Latino turnout and superior Clinton ground game (already in evidence).
In the rest of the states, I’ve essentially gone with our numbers. So I might tweak when the last batch of polls gets updated.
Senate |
ARIZONA |
R+8 |
Florida |
R+4 |
Illinois |
D+18 — Pickup |
Indiana |
R+6 |
Missouri |
R+2 |
Nevada |
D+3 |
New Hampshire |
D+1 — Pickup |
North Carolina |
R+2 |
Pennsylvania |
D+4 — Pickup |
Wisconsin |
D+4 — Pickup |
Final control of the Senate:
Democrats: 50
Republicans: 50
Tie-breaker: Tim Kaine
Now I’m predicting a split-decision based on the data. The last few cycles, the bulk of the competitive races have all fallen one direction or the other. Missouri, North Carolina, and even Florida are so close that a wave may yet push them into our column. I’m fervently hoping that’s the case.
On the other hand, New Hampshire is so close that it could remain red, and with it, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s continued tenure and a constitutional crisis at the Supreme Court.
In fact, with the GOP advantage in the House diminished, and with that party severely fractured, we may yet emerge from Tuesday with the promise of a broken and ungovernable House, a short-handed 50-50 Supreme Court, and Clinton at the top, trying to hold things together in the face of withering “alt-right” attacks as the GOP does its best to break our country.
So if you needed an excuse to do one last burst of GOTV, keep that in mind. This isn’t about getting Clinton across the line. She’s got this.
It’s about giving us a functional Senate and closing the gap in the House.
Oh, and speaking of the House, let’s say … Dems pick up 18 seats. Giving the GOP a still-comfortable 229-206 advantage—but not so comfortable for Paul Ryan, who will go on to lose his speakership.
It could’ve all been better except for that fucker James Comey.