My fellow Kossacks, I know that a lot of you are irritated at Nate Silver right now. However, please, take it from me: don't fool yourself that the polls or the poll analysts are all off.
In 2004, via MyDD.com where I was blogging at the time, I became a little Internet famous by claiming that something called the "incumbent rule" would result in undecideds overwhelmingly choosing Kerry. This meant, according to me, that the polls showing a small Bush lead were providing a misleading view of the race and that, in fact, Kerry was narrowly ahead.
We all know how that turned out. I was the one who was wrong, not the polls. It was a hugely embarrassing public error on my part, and I had to eat a lot of crow.
Whether the analysts saying Trump has a 12% chance of winning are right, or those saying he has a 32% chance are right, I don't know. But the truth is that they not that different from each other, and are all basically saying the same thing: Clinton is ahead but not by enough that this is a sure win for her.
I've spent a lot of time looking at polls these past 16 years, and I have totally seen polls miss races this close before. It happens--not often, but it does happen.
It's going to be a late night on Tuesday, most likely. This isn't over. Trump can definitely still win. Please, take it from me, go vote, and help GOTV.
History will judge us all by what we do in the final hours of this campaign. Please, sign up with MoveOn to call voters in the decisive states in the battles for the White House and the Senate.