With talk of Orange County possibly turning blue this election for only the third time in its history, I decided to take a deeper look at trends within the county to see what it would take for Hillary Clinton to become only the second Democrat and third non-Republican to win there. So far the only times Orange County voted for a Democrat for president were Franklin Roosevelt in 1932 and 1936, and the only other non-Republican to win was Teddy Roosevelt in 1912.
First, I will give the backstory. Rapid growth from settlers after the discovery of silver in the Santa Ana Mountains and the expansion of the Santa Fe Railroad led to Orange County separating from Los Angeles County in 1889. Orange County got its name after the fruit to give it a reputation as a semi-tropical paradise, where anything can grow, to encourage immigration and migration from elsewhere in the country. Orange County went from under 20,000 in 1900 to over 1.4 million in 1970, thanks in large part to new transportation opportunities in the first half of the 20th century.
The fastest growth came in the 1950s and 1960s as the county shifted from orange groves and oil wells to suburbs, where veterans and new aerospace employees moved, and a tourist hub with the opening of Disneyland. Existing cities such as Anaheim and Orange began annexing like crazy. The period between 1953 and 1962 saw more cities incorporated than any other 10-year span in the county.
Buena Park - 1953
Costa Mesa - 1953
La Palma - 1955
Garden Grove - 1956
Cypress - 1956
Stanton - 1956 (re-incorporating after dis-incorporating in 1924 from its first incorporation in 1911)
Westminster - 1957
Fountain Valley - 1957
Los Alamitos - 1960
San Juan Capistrano - 1961
Villa Park - 1962
Southern Orange County began rapidly growing later in the 1960s, with a smaller spurt of city incorporation in the late 1980s/early 1990s.
Mission Viejo - 1988
Dana Point - 1989
Laguna Niguel - 1989
Laguna Hills - 1991
Lake Forest - 1991
Almost always a Republican county since breaking away from Los Angeles, Orange County became even more solidly Republican due to the rapid postwar growth and anti-communist attitudes behind the "Orange Curtain". The only time Orange County voted less Republican than the country as a whole was its first presidential election as its own county in 1892.
Boffo Republican margins here and in San Diego County countered leftward shifts in the Bay Area and L.A., keeping California in the Republican column from 1952 to 1988 except 1964. Two generations ago, California was where Florida is now, a large, rapidly-growing swing state. (PVIs: 1948: D+0.4; 1952: R+2.0; 1956: D+0.1; 1960: D+0.9; 1964: R+1.3; 1968: R+1.7; 1972: D+1.8; 1976: D+1.4; 1980: R+3.1; 1984: R+1.6; 1988: D+1.5) In 1960, California was prematurely called for Kennedy, declaring him the winner of the election, until late absentees from places like Orange County put Yorba Linda native Nixon ahead.
|
OC |
USA |
DIFF |
1892 |
39.7% |
43.0% |
D+3.3 |
1896 |
51.0% |
51.0% |
EVEN |
1900 |
55.8% |
51.6% |
R+4.2 |
1904 |
59.5% |
56.4% |
R+3.1 |
1908 |
53.7% |
51.6% |
R+2.1 |
1912* |
45.0% |
27.4% |
Prog+17.6 |
1916 |
56.6% |
46.1% |
R+10.5 |
1920 |
71.5% |
60.3% |
R+11.2 |
1924 |
67.4% |
54.0% |
R+13.4 |
1928 |
79.4% |
58.2% |
R+21.2 |
1932* |
45.9% |
57.4% |
R+9.0 |
1936* |
43.3% |
60.8% |
R+5.8 |
1940 |
55.5% |
44.8% |
R+10.7 |
1944 |
56.9% |
45.9% |
R+11.0 |
1948 |
60.9% |
45.1% |
R+15.8 |
1952 |
70.3% |
55.2% |
R+15.1 |
1956 |
66.8% |
57.4% |
R+9.4 |
1960 |
60.8% |
49.6% |
R+11.2 |
1964 |
55.9% |
38.5% |
R+17.4 |
1968 |
63.1% |
43.4% |
R+19.7 |
1972 |
68.3% |
60.7% |
R+7.6 |
1976 |
62.2% |
48.0% |
R+14.2 |
1980 |
67.9% |
50.7% |
R+17.2 |
1984 |
74.7% |
58.8% |
R+15.9 |
1988 |
67.7% |
53.4% |
R+14.3 |
*The percentages in 1912 are for Teddy Roosevelt and 1932/1936 are for Franklin Roosevelt. (Republican Taft was only on the ballot in California as a write-in in 1912.)
Until 1996, Orange County was always among the 5 most Republican counties in California in terms of Republican vote percentage.
|
GOP% |
GOP |
DEM% |
DEM |
OTHER% |
OTHER |
RANK |
1920 |
71.5% |
12,797 |
19.6% |
3,502 |
8.9% |
1,594 |
4th |
1924 |
67.4% |
19,913 |
8.7% |
2,565 |
24.0% |
7,088 |
2nd |
1928 |
79.4% |
30,572 |
19.8% |
7,611 |
0.9% |
344 |
2nd |
1932 |
45.9% |
22,623 |
48.4% |
23,835 |
5.7% |
2,818 |
2nd |
1936 |
43.3% |
23,494 |
55.0% |
29,836 |
1.7% |
921 |
5th |
1940 |
55.5% |
36,070 |
43.4% |
28,236 |
1.1% |
691 |
2nd |
1944 |
56.9% |
38,394 |
42.5% |
28,649 |
0.6% |
407 |
3rd |
1948 |
60.9% |
48,587 |
36.4% |
29,018 |
2.8% |
2,209 |
3rd |
1952 |
70.3% |
80,994 |
29.0% |
33,397 |
0.7% |
844 |
3rd |
1956 |
66.8% |
113,510 |
32.3% |
54,895 |
0.9% |
1,474 |
3rd |
1960 |
60.8% |
174,891 |
38.9% |
112,007 |
0.2% |
701 |
4th |
1964 |
55.9% |
224,196 |
44.0% |
176,539 |
0.1% |
430 |
3rd |
1968 |
63.1% |
314,905 |
29.9% |
148,869 |
7.0% |
34,933 |
3rd |
1972 |
68.3% |
448,291 |
26.9% |
176,847 |
4.8% |
31,515 |
1st |
1976 |
62.2% |
408,632 |
35.3% |
232,246 |
2.5% |
16,555 |
1st |
1980 |
67.9% |
529,797 |
22.6% |
176,704 |
9.5% |
73,711 |
1st |
1984 |
74.7% |
635,013 |
24.3% |
206,272 |
1.0% |
8,792 |
1st |
1988 |
67.7% |
586,230 |
31.1% |
269,013 |
1.2% |
10,064 |
1st |
|
GOP% |
GOP |
DEM% |
DEM |
OTHER% |
OTHER |
RANK |
1992 |
43.9% |
426,613 |
31.6% |
306,930 |
24.6% |
239,006 |
5th |
1996 |
51.7% |
446,717 |
37.9% |
327,485 |
10.5% |
90,374 |
13th |
2000 |
55.8% |
541,299 |
40.4% |
391,819 |
3.9% |
37,787 |
23rd |
2004 |
59.7% |
641,832 |
39.0% |
419,239 |
1.3% |
14,328 |
22nd |
2008 |
50.2% |
579,064 |
47.6% |
549,558 |
2.2% |
25,065 |
24th |
2012 |
51.9% |
582,332 |
45.7% |
512,440 |
2.5% |
27,892 |
24th |
2016 |
42.8% |
507,148 |
51.4% |
609,961 |
5.8% |
69,086 |
31st |
The first Democratic U.S. Representative from Orange County post-Civil Rights was Jerry Patterson in 1974. Even though Bob Dornan upset Patterson in 1984, Dornan never won with more than 60% of the vote in his six winning elections in Orange County before losing to Loretta Sanchez in 1996. (Sanchez herself was a moderate Republican before switching to the Democrats a few years earlier.) Around this time, Orange County began shifting to a more urban county, especially in the north, with fewer residents commuting to Los Angeles. Republicans' margins began to soften, though they still held most elected offices then and now, such as all 5 County Supervisor seats and all State Senate seats in the county. (The 32nd Senate district, held by Democrat Tony Mendoza, has less than 20% of its population in Orange County, in Buena Park.)
|
OC |
USA |
DIFF |
1992 |
43.9% |
37.4% |
R+6.5 |
1996 |
51.7% |
40.7% |
R+11.0 |
2000 |
55.8% |
47.9% |
R+7.9 |
2004 |
59.7% |
50.7% |
R+9.0 |
2008 |
50.2% |
45.7% |
R+4.5 |
2012 |
51.9% |
47.2% |
R+4.7 |
2016 |
42.8% |
45.9% |
D+3.1 |
After the close call in 2008, I began dissecting Orange County to try to explain why it was so close. I came up with 3 divisions: L.A.-lite, the Democratic/minority-heavy portion in the north; the coastal cities, some of which experienced considerable swings leftward; and "Real Housewives", the inland cities plus cities like San Clemente. However, Orange County's actual divisions are just simply North and South. Overall, though with a few exceptions, North Orange County has indeed become "L.A. Lite" with a population that is younger, less white, and lower income than South Orange County. Here are the 2010 demographics, and the margins between the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates since 1992.
North
North |
1992 |
1996 |
2000 |
2004 |
2008 |
2012 |
|
Anaheim |
R+10.93% |
R+8.50% |
R+8.35% |
R+16.94% |
D+4.90% |
D+7.92% |
|
Brea |
R+19.33% |
R+20.76% |
R+27.12% |
R+32.21% |
R+14.59% |
R+18.26% |
|
Buena Park |
D+10.21% |
R+19.08% |
R+2.24% |
R+10.73% |
D+8.32% |
D+10.66% |
|
Costa Mesa |
R+7.56% |
R+10.57% |
R+14.07% |
R+12.64% |
D+6.59% |
R+0.94% |
|
Cypress |
D+3.62% |
D+11.55% |
R+12.08% |
R+19.49% |
R+4.18% |
R+5.29% |
|
Fountain Valley |
R+17.18% |
R+17.88% |
R+22.07% |
R+30.82% |
R+13.45% |
R+13.90% |
|
Fullerton |
R+13.03% |
R+13.13% |
R+15.50% |
R+18.31% |
R+0.43% |
R+1.18% |
|
Garden Grove |
R+4.36% |
R+3.84% |
R+4.00% |
R+23.40% |
R+4.31% |
D+9.51% |
|
Huntington Beach |
R+10.38% |
R+14.40% |
R+18.10% |
R+21.09% |
R+7.34% |
R+15.55% |
|
La Habra |
R+10.53% |
R+16.28% |
R+9.78% |
R+16.71% |
D+0.78% |
D+1.20% |
|
La Palma |
R+13.60% |
R+6.43% |
R+10.85% |
R+15..09% |
R+1.19% |
D+0.50% |
|
Los Alamitos |
R+1.00% |
R+5.54% |
R+9.36% |
R+12.07% |
R+2.37% |
R+6.76% |
|
Orange |
R+18.94% |
R+21.23% |
R+23.13% |
R+27.92% |
R+8.93% |
R+11.76% |
|
Placentia |
R+18.75% |
R+18.69% |
R+21.83% |
R+27.33% |
R+11.14% |
R+13.60% |
|
Santa Ana |
D+0.83% |
D+17.74% |
D+22.95% |
D+9.72% |
D+33.12% |
D+40.84% |
|
Seal Beach |
D+0.81% |
D+4.25% |
R+4.63% |
R+9.76% |
R+4.25% |
R+11.22% |
|
Stanton |
D+3.46% |
D+9.76% |
D+6.56% |
R+11.67% |
D+9.81% |
D+22.02% |
|
Westminster |
R+24.67% |
R+6.64% |
R+11.14% |
R+29.45% |
R+13.99% |
D+2.42% |
|
Yorba Linda |
R+20.79% |
R+34.24% |
R+38.98% |
R+45.37% |
R+30.65% |
R+38.52% |
|
North |
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
Med. HH Income |
Anaheim |
60.2% |
2.7% |
14.6% |
53.0% |
$59,330 |
Brea |
71.0% |
1.0% |
17.5% |
23.6% |
$81,278 |
Buena Park |
53.4% |
4.5% |
26.1% |
37.7% |
$64,809 |
Costa Mesa |
70.6% |
1.3% |
8.7% |
34.7% |
$65,471 |
Cypress |
58.5% |
2.1% |
31.1% |
18.1% |
$82,954 |
Fountain Valley |
55.9% |
1.4% |
35.1% |
12.6% |
$81,661 |
Fullerton |
53.6% |
3.0% |
23.3% |
33.1% |
$69,432 |
Garden Grove |
43.2% |
1.2% |
37.8% |
36.3% |
$60,036 |
Huntington Beach |
77.8% |
0.8% |
11.0% |
17.1% |
$80,901 |
La Habra |
54.8% |
2.0% |
7.2% |
58.0% |
$63,356 |
La Palma |
40.4% |
6.5% |
45.7% |
13.7% |
$84,693 |
Los Alamitos |
73.0% |
3.3% |
13.7% |
20.5% |
$79,861 |
Orange |
61.5% |
1.3% |
12.3% |
37.9% |
$78,654 |
Placentia |
66.4% |
1.6% |
15.0% |
38.2% |
$78,364 |
Santa Ana |
42.1% |
1.2% |
10.1% |
78.7% |
$54,399 |
Seal Beach |
83.2% |
0.5% |
9.6% |
10.6% |
$50,958 |
Stanton |
44.4% |
2.8% |
22.0% |
47.7% |
$51,933 |
Westminster |
40.1% |
0.8% |
47.2% |
22.3% |
$56,867 |
Yorba Linda |
75.7% |
1.6% |
15.5% |
14.5% |
$115,291 |
South
South |
1992 |
1996 |
2000 |
2004 |
2008 |
2012 |
|
Aliso Viejo |
|
|
|
R+17.67% |
D+7.13% |
R+2.82% |
|
Dana Point |
R+10.58% |
R+20.38% |
R+21.66% |
R+21.19% |
R+4.94% |
R+17.98% |
|
Irvine |
R+8.20% |
R+9.78% |
R+8.51% |
R+5.63% |
D+16.65% |
D+9.88% |
|
Laguna Beach |
D+16.08% |
D+9.26% |
D+10.45% |
D+15.49% |
D+27.18% |
D+11.97% |
|
Laguna Hills |
R+3.74% |
R+15.21% |
R+24.47% |
R+26.56% |
R+8.59% |
R+16.50% |
|
Laguna Niguel |
R+16.10% |
R+23.52% |
R+23.52% |
R+23.40% |
R+5.91% |
R+17.31% |
|
Laguna Woods |
|
|
D+12.03% |
D+6.97% |
D+5.30% |
R+2.56% |
|
Lake Forest |
R+10.19% |
R+20.80% |
R+24.43% |
R+29.40% |
R+9.20% |
R+15.90% |
|
Mission Viejo |
R+19.36% |
R+23.93% |
R+25.67% |
R+29.29% |
R+11.00% |
R+19.37% |
|
Newport Beach |
R+22.75% |
R+33.75% |
R+34.93% |
R+31.52% |
R+17.26% |
R+33.45% |
|
Rancho Santa Margarita |
|
|
R+29.70% |
R+35.52% |
R+12.51% |
R+23.84% |
|
San Clemente |
R+16.02% |
R+27.61% |
R+29.35% |
R+29.99% |
R+14.00% |
R+26.71% |
|
San Juan Capistrano |
R+18.84% |
R+38.52% |
R+28.38% |
R+30.14% |
R+14.85% |
R+23.44% |
|
Tustin |
D+3.42% |
R+14.77% |
R+16.39% |
R+17.41% |
D+5.36% |
D+2.00% |
|
Villa Park |
R+51.53% |
R+53.02% |
R+53.34% |
R+54.27% |
R+43.85% |
R+48.60% |
|
South |
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
Med. HH Income |
Aliso Viejo |
71.1% |
3.3% |
13.6% |
17.0% |
$99,095 |
Dana Point |
89.4% |
0.4% |
2.8% |
15.3% |
$83,306 |
Irvine |
53.7% |
1.8% |
37.5% |
9.4% |
$92,599 |
Laguna Beach |
91.2% |
0.7% |
3.7% |
7.3% |
$99,190 |
Laguna Hills |
74.0% |
0.5% |
11.7% |
18.6% |
$85,971 |
Laguna Niguel |
79.5% |
2.1% |
9.7% |
12.5% |
$100,480 |
Laguna Woods |
88.0% |
0.9% |
9.5% |
3.8% |
$35,393 |
Lake Forest |
67.3% |
1.9% |
15.1% |
22.8% |
$94,632 |
Mission Viejo |
79.8% |
1.3% |
9.2% |
15.3% |
$96,420 |
Newport Beach |
87.7% |
0.6% |
7.6% |
7.1% |
$108,946 |
Rancho Santa Margarita |
78.0% |
1.4% |
10.6% |
16.9% |
$104,167 |
San Clemente |
83.4% |
0.6% |
4.6% |
14.8% |
$89,289 |
San Juan Capistrano |
70.6% |
0.3% |
3.3% |
37.7% |
$73,806 |
Tustin |
56.6% |
2.0% |
20.8% |
37.9% |
$73,231 |
Villa Park |
76.1% |
0.1% |
15.3% |
8.1% |
$151,139 |
If Hillary Clinton does carry Orange County tomorrow, then she would do so by winning more cities in the North than Obama did, and significantly reducing Republican margins in the coastal cities in South Orange County if not outright winning a couple more.