The importance of this scandal cannot be minimized. But there has been very little coverage of a key point in this story: Why does Putin see value in having Trump in the White House? Why does he view Trump as vastly preferable to Clinton?
This is not as simplistic as leverage Putin has over Trump personally, or over his business through ties to the Russian “oligarchs.” No, this is about Putin’s long-range vision and a unique strategic opportunity that a Trump presidency — that a Trumpist America — would present for Putin’s Russia to claim a powerful new role in the world and to greatly expand its power over neighboring states and regions where it perceives vital interests.
At worst for Russia, a Trump Administration would be a fumbling, infighting, reckless, scattered presence on the world scene. In some ways, this would be like a GW Bush Administration on roids. The damage done by Bush Jr. to our system of alliances was deep; Obama’s repair of most of those friendships and of a large measure of trust has been to Russia’s detriment. But he’s been probing in new and dangerous ways and to ill effect: in eastern Ukraine and Crimea, and in Syria, and elsewhere only slightly more subtly.
But it could be much better for Putin’s Russia than merely being the beneficiary of American distraction. If Trump is to be believed, his Administration will pursue policies of economic and political isolationism. This will redound to the great benefit of rising powers, especially those at odds with historic and strategic US interests — Russia, certainly, and also China.
Putin will be able to look west to the Baltics and Central Europe, to the Black Sea, to the Middle East, and to Central Asia for new opportunities of influence and intimidation. A USA at odds with longterm friends, its alliances in tatters, will present a dangerous power vacuum to the world, and Putin is powerfully positioned to fill this. Europe will either have to deal with Putin with a new element of deference, or be prepared for escalating dangers of conflict without the balance and strategic ballast of US guarantees and trustworthiness.
Of course Putin would rather see Trump in the White House than Clinton.
This is a major element of this enormous story that is not getting coverage. This story is must not just be about What, it must also be about Why. The “why” must be the focus of not only of possibly futile efforts to get 37 GOP electors of good conscience to withdraw support from Trump, but also of the very realistic demand for hearings and investigations that must be undertaken for the sake of national and international peace. And the “WHY?” must be covered responsibly and widely by our national media so that people can understand this perilous element of a potential Trump administration.