Let’s examine the state of play: This excellent analysis demonstrates that many House delegations are made up of never-Trumpers.
The name of the game has always been getting the electoral college to punt to the House. Given the new intelligence about Russia, its fair a deliberative body with a direct electoral stake decides if they want to tie their future to Trump. They don’t.
Our assumption has always been that we should accept our Electoral College defeat, and find a reasonable Republican alternative: Romney, Kasich (though he said no), Huntsman, even McCain. All sane patriots who we disagree with on numerous policy positions.
This would entail a number of Dem electors nominating a third choice for consideration (the House would consider the Top 3). But let’s game this out.
If any sort of wave happens, or any sort of movement happens that looks like its going to the House… Republicans have a sure-fire block:
Make sure enough never-Trump electors nominate Pence. There are plenty of Rs who think Pence is swell, but hate Trump — its why it was a brilliant pick on Trump’s part.
In other words… the more I game this out… the more I think its a fool’s errand for Dems to try to play Republican politics. Instead, let’s go for the one choice on whom we know a large majority of Democratic electors can agree:
Unleash the Biden.
Consider this:
There will only be three choices before our House delegations. One will be Hillary, one will be Trump, and the other… will either be Pence or Biden (or worse Rs could slip Paul Ryan into this mix). So let’s make it Biden.
The House delegations vote, one vote per state… the never-Trumpers will never vote for Hillary. Period. But in light of multiple deadlocked ballots, negotiation can take place. Who better to negotiate than the guy who knows where all the bodies are buried, who has the most Washington and world relationships than any other player. What does that look like?
-Biden agrees to serve one term. It wouldn’t be binding, but he’d look awful going back on his pledge. He’ll be 78 in 2020, so I don’t think that’s unreasonable.
-Biden agrees to accept an R Veep. It doesn’t have to be Pence. Biden has a lot of R buddies he respects in the Senate and could easily serve with one of them. Now I know this isn’t very good impeachment insurance, but he has a long long history as a good guy with the American people and I think its a taller order to go after him than they want to try.
-Biden agrees to a compromise SCOTUS pick. It will be better than whoever Trump was going to pick.
-Biden agrees to some bi-partisan cabinet picks. I think we can live with Elaine Chao at Transportation, for instance. I think we can find some R for Defense and SOS we can live with.
Will any Rs that voted for Biden be primaried- yes. But the never-Trumpers really are never-Trump. They know he will be a disaster. Why give the Republicans an out. We get the most qualified person to be Prez by default...
Gaming this out for Biden… Dems probably have a horrible time in 2018, and go into 2020 crippled. If I’m the Republicans… (Paul Ryan, etc), I think long and hard about whether I want to roll the dice with the orange one, or head into 2020 with an open seat at President, a long bench for a healthy primary, solid control (55+ in Senate) of Congress…
Gaming this out for an alternative Republican… they don’t do anything too scary, maintain Obama’s general foreign policy and make progress on ISIS, and in 2018, with more solid majorities, attack some bigger things… and they are the incumbent coming into 2020. I’d rather play this game in the aftermath of a Biden administration, albeit compromised.
In the end...
…it prevents Trump from being President and Putin from having a puppet in the White House.
The Republicans don’t have another true populist likely to get the nomination in 2020, and its very likely Dems can get behind the right candidate and keep the White House.
So… unleash the Biden. After thinking it through, I think this is the game we can play and win.