The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the U.S. economy had net gain of 178,000 new non-farm jobs in November. The numbers come from the Current Employment Survey of 146,000 business establishments and government agencies. Of the total, 156,000 were private-sector jobs, 22,000 in the public sector. While this was an improvement over recent months, it was far below net job gains the previous three Novembers. And more people left the civilian workforce than got jobs.
While within expectations, this makes the expected Fed boost in short-term interest rates at its December meeting more iffy.
Compared with last November, nominal wages for private sector workers were up by 2.5 percent, a rate slightly exceeding inflation. But this was a decline from the October to October numbers, when the increase was 2.8 percent. In fact, average wages for all private-sector non-farm workers fell 3 cents an hour.
The headline unemployment rate—which the Bureau of Labor Statistics labels U3—fell to 4.6 percent in November. That’s the lowest rate in more than nine years. The last time it was that low was August 2007. The rate is calculated from another report, the Current Population Survey of 60,000 households.
An alternative rate—U6—derived from the same survey measures unemployment and underemployment. It fell 0.2 points to 9.3 percent. While U3 is close to pre-recession unemployment levels, U6 remains high for this late in a recovery, indicating that despite more hiring there is still considerable ground to be gained by people who want full-time jobs but can’t find them.
In addition to the estimates for November job growth, the BLS revised its calculations for October from 161,000 to 142,000, and for September from 191,000 to 208,000. All these figures are seasonally adjusted by means of a formula for each month that changes over time as new data are collected.
The figures for November were in line with forecasts by Econoday (170,000) and The Wall Street Journal (180,000).
Overall, job growth has been steady but lower than in 2014 and 2015. Last year, the monthly average was 229,000 new jobs; this year, it has been 180,000.
While the overall unemployment rate has been steadily improving, it’s been considerably slower for people of color, particularly for African Americans. And there are people of all colors waiting in the wings outside the labor force as well, a cohort labeled “missing workers” by the Economic Policy Institute, which says they would be employed in a healthier economy. At last count there were slightly more than 2 million missing workers.
And manufacturing jobs keep being lost.
The civilian workforce in November fell by 226,000, after having fallen by 195,000 in October. The employment-population ratio remained unchanged at 59.7 percent, and the labor force participation rate fell marginally to 62.7 percent. The LFPR has fallen in part because of the retirement of the baby boomers, the oldest of whom turned 70 this year. But some of that drop-off was caused by people who have given up looking for work out of frustration. Those are included among the missing workers.
The BLS also makes another monthly calculation—the job situation for Americans in the 25-54 age cohort that statisticians view as prime working years. People this old are the most likely of any age group to be employed. The employment-population ratio for this age group reached its high point of 81.9 percent in April 2000. It fell to a low of 74.8 percent in November 2010. In November it slipped 0.1 to 78.1 percent.
The unemployment rate differs by race and sex. For U3: Adult men: 4.3 percent; Adult women: 4.2 percent; Whites: 4.2 percent; Blacks: 8.1 percent; Asians: 3.0 percent; Hispanics: 5.7 percent; American Indians: (not counted monthly); Teenagers: 15.2 percent; (for teenagers of color, the unemployment rate is usually much higher.)
The BLS includes a "confidence level" in its estimate of plus or minus 105,000 jobs. This means the "real" number of new jobs created in November was not 178,000 but ranged between 73,000 and 283,000.
Hours & Wages:
• Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose 2 cents an hour to $21.73 in November.
• Average work week for all employees on non-farm payrolls remained unchanged in November at 34.4 hours.
• Average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls fell 3 cents an hour in November to $25.89, after an 11-cent rise in October.
• The manufacturing workweek in November declined 0.2 hours to 40.6 hours.
• The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private non-farm payrolls in November remained unchanged at 33.6 hours.
Job gains and losses in November for selected categories:
- Professional services: +63,000
- Temporary help services: +14,300
- Transportation & warehousing: +8,900
- Financial activities: +6.000
- Leisure & hospitality: +29,000
- Information: -10,000
- Education and health services: +44,000
- Health care & social assistance: +34,700
- Retail trade: -8,300
- Construction: +19,000
- Manufacturing: -4,000
- Mining and Logging: -2,000
Here's what the seasonally adjusted job growth numbers have looked like in for the previous 10 years compared with this November’s gain of 178,000.
November 2006: + 208,000
November 2007: + 115,000
November 2008: - 769,000
November 2009: - 7,000
November 2010: + 123,000
November 2011: + 146,000
November 2012: + 149,000
November 2013: + 291,000
November 2014: + 331,000
November 2015: + 280,000