Right now we are more than 2/3rds done with the 2010s and redistricting will soon be upon us. Of course until 2020 we won’t know the final numbers and which States will lose and gain. In terms of New York State two things are certain.
First that you won’t be able to support two black VRA districts in Brooklyn by itself with a black voting majority. Queens won’t be able to support one by itself. This is due to the areas these districts are in becoming more diverse through gentrification, the organic growth of the Jewish Orthodox communities within them, other groups such as Latinos and Asians moving in and some African-American residents moving to other areas. There are two things you can do. You can grow the Queens district into Nassau to preserve the majority and then move one of the Brooklyn districts deeply into Queens. Whether this is legally required depends on whether you see “communities of interest” cross county lines and how “creative” a solution you feel is justified. Or you could just accept them as plurality African-American districts that will continue electing African-American congressman but besides one district in Brooklyn no longer mandated to continue to. On my next map I will do the former. On this map I am doing the latter.
Turning two of these districts into plurality black allows you to do two things. First you could push some African-Americans into conservative districts (like Peter King) to help push them out. I chose not to do that in this map. Secondly you could use mixed African-American / Latino areas to help create a Queens based Latino district. This is what I did. This is highly unlikely as it makes life more stressful for a number of incumbents.
In order to help simulate the loss of the ability to create black majority districts I imagined a scenario where New York loses a congressional district. This is predicted by some but not all models of how the 2020 census will shake out. A lot will depend on choices made by the Trump administration on how they conduct it (such as how they go about trying to estimate and count undocumented aliens). If you have faith in Wilbur Ross (or whoever is Commerce Secretary four years from now) to conduct the next US census in a diligent, professional, and completely non-biased manner we may very well end up fine. However in the real world we should prepare for the worst.
Second it is fairly certain that upstate is going to continue to hemorrhage population. This is why I am only doing downstate since this will have implications for upstate districts. And going in with almost ten year 2008 numbers and without the Trump numbers I feel like I would be going into it completely blind.
An unintended and unavoidable consequence of eliminating a district is that downstate will lose a seat. With NYC and Long Island tucked in a corner without doing really weird things (like that map of strings going to NYC that made 29 safe New York State districts) this is geometrically unavoidable as districts grow in size and population. With a district eliminated this “lowers” every district remaining down meaning that depending on how you arrange your districts you could create a new Democratic friendly one north of New York City. Or just shore up Sean Patrick Maloney. But the cascade affect of this combined with the population increase upstate means great care has to be taken in enlarging districts like Louise Slaughter’s Rochester based one. We’ll know more in four years.
So let’s start.
First up is Suffolk County. In Long Island I decided to make the a North and South district rather than East and West ones. That is how Long Islanders identify themselves as demonstrate by the video below.
Second I drew both of them as completely Suffolk based. Tom Souzzi is thrown out of the Suffolk district as it is oriented towards having it’s Democratic half on the south side rather than the north side. Since his house is firmly in the Nassau Democratic district he will probably run there (in a primary against Kathleen Rice) instead moving to the South Shore of Suffolk. I did that to screw with Lee Zeldin who lives in the South Shore. North Shore does tend to be wealthier than the South Shore so I suspect once I see some Trump numbers a North Shore orientation may work better. But with Obama numbers either way works. I will reverse it on the next map.
CD 1.
Incumbent: None but Lee Zeldin will move to and run here.
Obama 2008: 48.7/50.4
2010 Voting Age Demographics: 84.3% White, 3% Black, 7.6% Latino, 4.2% Asian
CD 2.
Incumbent: None.
Obama 2008: 57.2/41.9
2010 Voting Age Demographics: 63.6% White, 10.1% Black, 22.3% Latino, 2.5% Asian
Notes: Democratic enough we should win it. But as an open seat you never know. Particularly in Long Island. But a good Democratic should let us take it.
Next up is Nassau. Again divided North to South. This time with South (Peter King) Republican and North Democratic. Kathleen Rice’s seat is made a bit more tricky because normally I would want to remove Garden City from any Democratic district. But since that is where she lives it stays. However Peter King’s move into Nassau comes mostly at her expense. So besides Garden City her district is now mostly Tom Souzzi’s. However Kathleen Rice served as District Attorney in all of Nassau County and is well known in the district. So don’t necessarily count her out.
CD 3.
Incumbent: Peter King.
Obama 2008: 49.9/49.3
2010 Voting Age Demographics: White 75%, Black 7%, Hispanic 11.9%, Asian 5%
CD 4.
Incumbent: Kathleen Rice, Tom Souzzi
Obama 2008: 60/39.3
2010 Voting Age Demographics: White 56.2, Black 12.1%, Hispanic 14.3%, Asian 15.6%
Now Queens. The contours are defined by a few things. First Meek’s district not going into Brooklyn (to not dilute the African-American voting pool available for districts there) or Nassau. Second keeping Meek’s district a strong plurality African-American district. And third by a desire to construct a Latino voting majority Queens based district. Additionally I decided not to go into Manhattan Which choices in Brooklyn and Staten Island precluded anyway. And lastly and most importantly Crowley’s district no longer makes a big detour into the Bronx making Queens a lot more constricted.
There is a lot for every incumbent to be upset over. Grace Meng loses the eastern part of her district including some Asian areas. And many Latino areas included in the majority Latino district also have strong Asian areas taken away from Meng’s district. This is partly made up by the dismantling of Carolyn Maloney’s district which also has a strong Asian population. Joe Crowley’s district becomes majority Latino . Due to his power as chair the Queens Democratic Party and the number of different Latino groups in his district he should remain safe but he should expect to no longer have a safe ride every Democratic primary. Gregory Meek’s district goes down to 44% Black (in part due to removing mixed Latino / Black areas to help create the Latino majority district). Queens is relieved that the Maloney rather than say Meng is the sacrificial lamb. While the Latino Queens district will never happen and Crowley will be given a “better” seat given the power Queens Democrats have in the legislature it would not be surprising if given a choice between Meng and Maloney Democrats choose Meng. Meng lives in Queens, Maloney doesn’t.
CD 5.
Incumbent: Gregory Meeks
Obama 2008: 84.7 / 14.9
2010 Voting Age Demographics:16.4% White, 44.6% Black, 18% Latino, 13.5% Asian.
CD 6.
Incumbent: Grace Meng
Obama 2008: 69.1 / 29.9
2010 Voting Age Demographics: 44.1% White, 4.1% Black, 18.9% Hispanic, 30.7% Asian
Note: She should have enough of a Chinese base to keep her safe though in a racially polarized primary she might be vulnerable. But keep in mind the district is 28% Republican and almost all of them are white. So the Democratic primary electorate MAY (depending on registration) differ from the district’s demographics. Carolyn Maloney might be tempted to run here rather than against Espaillat or Nadler. But probably not.
CD 7.
Incumbent: Joe Crowley
Obama 2008: 76.1% / 23.2%
2010 Voting Age Demographics: White 22.3%, Black 6.5%, Latino 50.7%, Asian 18.4,
Note: There are a number of different Latino groups here not only including Dominicans, Puerto Ricans, and Mexicans but smaller groups (such as Colombians) who have recognizable communities in this incredibly diverse part of Queens. Which will make it all that much harder for anyone to beat the incredibly powerful head of the Queens Democratic primary whose district already is non-white. But the Latino voting majority will make him too tempting a target for many an eager up and comer to pass on.
No sleep till Brooklyn. There are two features that define how you deal with Brooklyn. First the two African-American majority districts. To achieve the current African-American majority status they need to eat mixed Black/Latino areas making a Latino district tougher. In the past with more compact and higher percentage African-American districts you did have that original district Brooklyn based district that Nydia Valesquez won that had a Latino majority and a circuitous shape that caused the courts to rule it unconstitutional. Though if you are aiming for geographical continuity it having to start from Sunset Park where Nydia lives starts becoming problematic with all the other concerns such as below. That said I will do exactly that next map. But it may not be one Nydia likes since she her district will become overwhelmingly Queens based and open her to a primary.
The big white elephant in the room is conservative Russian and Orthodox Jews and other white ethnics in South Brooklyn. Together you could make a very Republican leaning district. But for the sakes of maintaining the status quo they are divided. Particularly since they border the Latino, and the two African-American districts. You could put a lot in the Staten Island district (putting it permanently out of reach for Democrats) but even then you have a lot left over that as of now are put into Jerry Nadler’s district in a very ugly kludge. One day Democrats will completely cede this area into it’s own district. But for now we can safely assume it won’t happen.
I do a number of things in Brooklyn. Some of which current incumbents won’t like. First Nydia’s district is mostly dismantled. Parts are used to create the new Queens based Latino district. And her home in Sunset Park is thrown in a Staten Island district that is so Democratic Bill de Blasio could win there. In fact I intentionally included Park Slope! However something like the Nadler kludge was unavoidable in trying to maintain two African-American districts and account for all the white ethnics emancipated from the Staten Island based district. So Nydia’s new district (unless she elects to run in the Staten Island based district which she could actually beat Dan Donovan in) would be a scary Brooklyn / Manhattan amalgam. A large highly conservative Southern Brooklyn portion, some white liberals up north, and then even whiter liberals in a Manhattan portion covering most everything south of Canal Street. It works because you have high voting liberal Manhattanites anchoring it.
Hakeem Jeffries gets the VRA black majority more northern district with Flatbush. Yvette Clarke cleans up some of the remaining white ethnic areas in the South in a black plurality district.
CD 8:
Incumbent: Hakeem Jeffries
Obama 2008: 93.1% / 6.4%
2010 Voting Age Demographics: White 24.2%, Black 51.1%, Latino 18.6%, Asian 3.8
CD 9:
Incumbent: Yvette Clarke
Obama 2008: 93.1% / 6.4%
2010 Voting Age Demographics: White 31.5%, Black 47.2%, Latino 12.6%, Asian 6.7
CD 11:
Incumbent: None. But includes parts of Nydia Velazquez district.
Obama 2008: 61.4% / 37.8%
2010 Voting Age Demographics: White 54.6%, Black 4.9%, Latino 13.6%, Asian 25.2
Note: Wall Street and it’s potential to raise funds from will make this a highly coveted seat. Even Jerry Nadler might be tempted to move downtown. Nydia’s district already covers a part of the Manhattan portion. But it’s the Brooklyn portion that will dominates. Manhattan votes in high numbers. Of course the ultra-Orthodox Jewish community is itself famous for voting in high numbers. Though a growing portion has been realigning towards the Republicans. If there is an open seat probably a left-leaning Jewish (preferably Orthodox Jew) would be most likely to keep this district in check.
It should be solidly Democratic but if this district gives you Anthony Weiner deja vu it should. We saw his district (particularly the Brooklyn portion of it contained in this district) give him narrower and narrower margins. Nothing all that alarming since it seemed Democratic enough. Until the special election that elected Bob Turner over David Weprin who would nicely fit my description of “a left-leaning Jewish (preferably Orthodox Jew) would be most likely to keep this district in check.”
But this district is what you get if you try to keep districts contiguous, make Staten Island Democratic, and keep two solidly black voting-age congressional districts. The price for a solidly Democratic Staten Island is a still solidly Democratic Brooklyn district that might potentially make you sweat down the road.
Staten Island. Famous cultural Mecca of NYC. And now safely Democratic congressional seat. In fact the Brooklyn portion is now so Democratic (and has so many high voting white liberals) the question is no longer whether a Michael Cussick can win the general election against Congressman Dan Donovan, but can Michael Cussick win a Democratic primary against a more liberal candidate? Nydia Velazquez would be a bad fit for Staten Island but the seat may just be liberal enough for her to prevail anyway. Or maybe not. Look at Katko in Syracuse. You may need the right Democrat anyway.
CD 11
Incumbent: Dan Donovan and Nydia Velazquez
Obama 2008: 57.9% / 41.3%
2010 Voting Age Demographics: White 58.9%, Black 7.0%, Latino 20.1%, Asian 12.5
Note: Mike McMahon could try to make a stab. So might Michael Cussick. But with a large number of registered Republicans in the Staten Island portion it’s possible the Brooklyn portion may end up controlling a Democratic primary. But the problem with Nydia running is she will have to fight for it. The Staten Island party is way too parochial to give away the nomination if they could control it themselves. I will also note for the record of the leadership of the Staten Island Democratic Party is not exactly that stellar for contested primaries. If you have the resources to compete no reason at all not to go for it.
Manhattan. Most well known borough. Most loved and hated. With Carolyn Maloney’s district gone, Nadler’s district moving out of Brooklyn there is a lot of changes for them as well as the district of Adriano Espaillat. This map would not be popular with Manhattan Democrats since they would go from 3 representatives to 2 (depending on what happens with CD-11). With a different map they might risk Adriano Espaillat’s seat becoming Bronx majority (and opening him up to a potential primary).
But no Manhattan representative is happy. Jerry Nadler probably runs in a primary against Carolyn Maloney. Though he could move downtown to run in CD 11. Carolyn Maloney would have three options. Run in a primary against Nadler where she would at best be even. That would require her moving. If she stays put she would be an underdog against Espaillat. Though with low Latino turnout and the continuing gentrification of northern Manhattan she might have a shot. If she moved to Queens she would have more of her former district than Grace Meng. But I just can’t see her leaving Manhattan.
Adriano Espaillat’s district just became a lot whiter and a lot wealthier. His Dominican base votes in large numbers (which is how he became a Congressman in the first place). He will need to expand that if he faces a strong primary challenge. Possibly from Carolyn Maloney. In order to make up for his district no longer being majority voting Latino I maximized Elliot Engel’s district with Latinos to get his over 50%. One way I did that was by giving the whiter sections of the northwestern Bronx to Espaillat. Or in other words I gave him Elliot Engel!
CD 12:
Incumbent: Jerry Nadler
Obama 2008: 81.7% / 17.4%
2010 Voting Age Demographics: White 72.4%, Black 4.0%, Latino 9.9%, Asian 11.7
Note: Ever since Nadler lost Borough Park in 2010 he has wanted out of the ultra-Orthodox sections of Brooklyn. Hard to feel sorry for someone with such an otherwise overwhelmingly Democratic district. A completely Manhattan district gives him a solid district. Only question is whether Carolyn Maloney might move a few blocks down and primary him.
CD 13:
Incumbent: Adriano Espaillat, Carolyn Maloney, Elliot Engel
Obama 2008: 90.7% / 8.6%
2010 Voting Age Demographics: White 29.1%, Black 23.5%, Latino 40.3%, Asian 5.1
Note: Carolyn Maloney with a base in Spanish Harlem and points south and Espaillat losing Bronx Dominicans is not quite as dead as she seems. But it will still be tough for her to with district. Engel probably tries his chances with a Bronx based district. But may consider running here if Maloney decides to challenge Nadler instead.
The Bronx is the area of NYC that is overwhelmingly Latino. Which is why it has always been strange that it only brings one Latino to congress. This map probably changes it as it leaves Engel very vulnerable to a primary. Especially as his district is far more Bronx based and doesn’t extend further north beyond Yonkers. A victim of districts sinking southward.
CD 14:
Incumbent: Jose Serrano
Obama 2008: 90.3% / 9.4%
2010 Voting Age Demographics: White 9.0%, Black 36.2%, Latino 50.4%, Asian 2.4
CD 15:
Incumbent: Elliot Engel
Obama 2008: 82.6% / 16.4%
2010 Voting Age Demographics: White 19.1%, Black 23.5%, Latino 50.2%, Asian 5.1
Note: Engel’s district now includes much of the Bronx parts of Espaillat’s old district. He’d be a tempting target for someone such as State Senator Gustavo Rivera.
Borough Scorecard. How many districts touch a borough and how many representatives live in each.
Suffolk now — 3 Districts, 1 Congressman
Suffolk new (probable) — 3 Districts, 2 Congressmen
Nassau now — 4 Districts, 3 Congressmen
Nassau new (probable) — 2 Districts, 2 Congressmen
Queens now — 7 Districts, 3 Congressmen
Queens new (probable) 4 Districts, 3 Congressmen
Brooklyn now — 5 Districts, 4 Congressmen
Brooklyn new (probable) — 6 districts, 3 Congressmen.
Staten Island now — 1 Districts, 1 Congressman
Staten Island (probable) — 1 districts, 1 Congressman.
Manhattan now — 4 districts, 3 Congressmen
Manhattan (probable) probable — 3 districts, 2 Congressmen
Bronx now — 4 districts, 2 Congressmen
Bronx new (probable) — 3 districts, 2 Congressmen
Partisan Scoreboard.
Current City + LI Dems: 13
Current City + LI Reps: 3
Probable City + LI Dems: 13
Probable City + LI Reps: 2
Link to DRA map.
http://www79.zippyshare.com/v/LP7NOFAX/file.html
Coming soon. Part 2 where three black voting majority districts are maintained and Staten Island is split to create a Republican frankenstein producing all kinds of unintended consequences.