Leading Off:
● MD-08: Wealthy businessman David Trone only kicked off his bid for this safely blue Washington-area seat a few days ago, and his many primary rivals already have something to attack him with. While Trone is a prominent Democratic donor who even hosted President Obama at his home for a fundraiser, the Washington Post reports that since 2000, Trone has given a hefty $150,000 to Republicans.
Trone wasn't exactly apologetic about his decision to contribute to Republicans like Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory when he was asked. While he said he disagrees with the GOP candidates he sent money to "on everything social and economic," "I sign my checks to buy access." That's nothing if not honest in a very Trump-like way. Former hotel executive and primary rival Kathleen Matthews has also earned some scorn for donating to GOP Sen. Roy Blunt for business reasons, though her $2,600 looks positively tiny compared to what Trone has shelled out.
Trone is also already airing his first TV ad. In his minute-long spot, Trone takes the viewer on a tour of the farm where he grew up, and describes how he learned about compassion and respect from it, before talking about providing opportunities for people. It's a bit weird that Trone's ad centers around a farm while he's campaigning for a very suburban seat, but we can't all be born in log cabins. The ad is part of Trone's opening $900,000 buy.
4Q Fundraising:
Be sure to check out our complete fourth quarter Senate fundraising chart, and look for our big House chart this coming week.
● CA-Sen: Kamala Harris (D): $1.9 million raised, $4 million cash-on-hand
● PA-Sen: Pat Toomey (R-inc): $1.9 million raised, $9.6 million cash-on-hand
Senate:
● CO-Sen: On Friday, businessman and former Colorado State University athletic director Jack Graham joined the scrum to take on Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet.
Graham has already dumped $1 million of his own money into his campaign and he's made some hires, including bringing on former Colorado GOP head Dick Wadhams as his campaign manager. (Wadhams famously stepped down in 2011 after a disappointing cycle for state Republicans, declaring he was "tired of the nuts who have no grasp of what the state party's role is.") Graham was fired by CSU in 2014 after a poor job review, though Graham says he was let go due to conflict with the university's leadership.
Graham is roughly the 30 billionth Republican to enter the race. Some of his notable GOP opponents include fellow rich guy Robert Blaha; ex-state Rep. Jon Keyser, who is trying to portray himself as the GOP establishment favorite; ultra-conservative state Sen. Tim Neville; and Jefferson County Commissioner Donald Rosier.
● FL-Sen: Just ahead of the FEC's Jan. 31 reporting deadline, Democratic Rep. Alan Grayson released his fourth quarter fundraising numbers, and they're not good. Grayson took in just $491,000 from donors and chipped in an extra $100,000 loan of his own, leaving him with only $259,000 in the bank. By contrast, his rival for the Democratic nomination, Rep. Patrick Murphy, raised $1.46 million over the same time period and has $4.3 million saved up, giving him an astounding 17-to-1 cash advantage.
Grayson's often bragged about his small donor program, claiming that voters would "crawl over hot coals naked" to support him. His fundraising to date, however, suggests that few progressives are sporting third-degree burns on their privates. As we've noted before, Grayson is worth at least $30 million and could plow a considerable chunk of that into the race if he so chooses, but so far, he hasn't shown much desire to crawl over hot coals naked for himself, either.
● LA-Sen: Troy Hebert, a former Democratic state senator and the former director of the Louisiana Alcohol and Tobacco Control Office, has announced that he'll seek this seat as an independent. Hebert faces extremely steep odds in the November jungle primary, and this isn't going to help things: New Orleans' Fox affiliate reports that the FBI is investigating allegations that Hebert "used his position to receive sexual favors from a New Orleans woman who had problems with a liquor license." Amazingly, Hebert kicked off his campaign after the Fox report came out.
● PA-Sen: Democratic establishment favorite Katie McGinty has received the endorsement of the League of Conservation Voters, not a huge surprise for the former state EPA head. Unlike a lot of other environmental groups, the League is willing and able to spend real money on elections.
Gubernatorial:
● ND-Gov: Former state Agriculture Commissioner Sarah Vogel was the only notable Democrat making any noises about running here, but she's announced that she'll stay out. At this point, it's looking very unlikely that Team Blue will field a credible candidate for this open seat, which is a shame. As the GOP's 2014 gubernatorial victories in Maryland and Massachusetts and Team Blue's win in Louisiana last year proved, it's always good to field a candidate just in case lightning strikes.
The Republicans have a three-way contest between Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem, the establishment favorite, libertarian state Rep. Rick Becker, and rich guy Doug Burgum. It doesn't sound like the race will get any bigger: While Rep. Kevin Cramer didn't quite rule out a bid a few months ago, he's announced that he'll run for re-election.
Normally in North Dakota, nominations are all-but-decided at the party conventions: The delegates choose whom the state party will endorse, the other credible candidates drop out, and the primary is a non-event. However, Burgum has announced that he'll compete in the June primary no matter what happens at the convention. Stenehjem is likely to earn the state GOP's endorsement at the convention, which will be an asset in the primary. However, it's possible to skip the convention and still take the GOP nod. In 2012, Cramer decided to head straight to the primary for North Dakota's only House seat, and he decisively beat his convention-endorsed foe. While the party infrastructure will be behind Stenehjem, Burgum has more than enough money to put up a fight in June.
Interestingly, social issues aren't likely to play a role in the primary, and it's not because all the Republicans are solid conservatives. The National Journal's Karyn Bruggeman notes that while Stenehjem said he would defend the state's stringent anti-abortion law in 2013, he doesn't even call himself "pro-life." Becker voted against that law, and Burgum has been reluctant to talk about abortion at all, a very unusual position for a Republican in a conservative state.
House:
● DE-AL: EMILY's List is out with another endorsement and this time, they're backing former state Labor Secretary Lisa Blunt Rochester. Blunt Rochester is the only woman running in what's currently a four-person Democratic race, which could give her an edge when the September primary rolls around. The other Democratic candidates are Sean Barney, the 2014 treasurer nominee and a former aide to Gov. Jack Markell; state Rep. Bryon Short; and state Sen. Bryan Townsend. The filing deadline for this safely blue seat isn't until July.
● FL-02: The primary for this safely red North Florida seat is shaping up to be a clear fight between the GOP establishment and tea party friendly outsiders. On Friday, the well-funded Club For Growth threw its support behind Mary Thomas, the former general counsel to the Florida Department of Elder Affairs. Thomas also has the backing of the Senate Conservatives Fund, another key element in what Washington Post reporter Paul Kane once dubbed the "tea party establishment."
Thomas, who is seeking to become the first Indian-American woman to serve in Congress, faces physician Neal Dunn. Dunn is backed by establishment figures, including ex-state House Speakers Allan Bense and Will Weatherford and former State Senate Leader Don Gaetz, but plenty of conservative activists view him with suspicion due to his past donations to Democrats like Sen. Bill Nelson. Dunn decisively outraised Thomas over the summer, and we'll find out very soon if Thomas had a better fourth quarter.
● FL-05: On Friday, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum announced that he would not run for this safely blue North Florida seat. Gillum didn't say much beyond how he believes he'll best serve his community as mayor. However, some previous comments from Gillum give us some better insight into his thinking, and how his decision will impact this race.
Rep. Corrine Brown's seat was split by redistricting, and she hasn't announced if she'll run in the 5th, campaign for the Orlando-area 10th, or just call it quits. If Brown runs in the 5th, she's unlikely to face any credible primary challengers from her Jacksonville base. Ex-state Sen. Al Lawson of Tallahassee is already running here though, and if he and Gillum both challenged Brown, they'd likely split the Tallahassee vote enough to secure Brown's renomination. But if Brown leaves, a number of Jacksonville politicians would eye this seat, and it could make it a lot easier from someone from Tallahassee to win.
Gillum said a few weeks ago that he wanted to see what Brown did for this reason, but he evidently got tired of waiting. Gillum even admitted in his Friday statement that "there may still be major shifts in the race for the 5th Congressional District," but he made it clear that his "decision is final." In any case, Gillum's move is very good news for Lawson, who is likely to be the sole major Tallahassee candidate if Brown runs here.
It's also bad for Brown for the same reason. While there are more registered Democrats in the Jacksonville area than around Tallahassee, Florida redistricting expert Matthew Isbell argues that more primary votes will still be cast in the Tallahassee region, where Brown is not known. Brown would not have an easy time in a one-on-one fight between her and Lawson, which could motivate her to hightail to the 10th. Things would change if there's an open seat: Tallahassee-area Rep. Gwen Graham says she might run here if Brown doesn't, but there's still a good chance that more Jax candidates would be on the primary ballot than Tallahassee ones.
● FL-26, FL State Senate: Andrew Korge, the son of a prominent Democratic fundraiser, said a little while ago that he planned to challenge Republican freshman Carlos Curbelo, but he has yet to set up a campaign. Korge may go after a different Miami-area Republican instead: The Miami Herald reports that Korge is mulling a run against state Sen. Anitere Flores, though Korge hasn't said anything publicly.
If Korge ran against Flores, a lot of Democrats would be very happy. National Democrats want businesswoman Annette Taddeo to take on Curbelo, and they'd be delighted if Korge didn't force her to spend some money in the primary. (Ex-Rep. Joe Garcia is still flirting with a bid, but while he previously said he would announce his plans last week, he ignored his self-imposed deadline.) Flores represented a seat that Obama carried by less than 0.50 percent but because of redistricting, she's moving to a constituency that backed Obama by 5 points. Flores has a large warchest and she won't be easy to beat, but Democrats can't afford to let her off if they want to make real gains in the chamber.
● NH-01: Republican Rep. Frank Guinta says he's repaid the $355,000 he took from his parents in 2010, then improperly loaned to his congressional campaign—a violation of election law that constituted an illegal campaign donation far in excess of the $2,400 per person maximum then in effect. The FEC fined Guinta $15,000 earlier this year for his transgressions and ordered him to pay back the money, so really, he's just doing something he was already obligated to do—no brownie points for that.
Guinta also took the opportunity to reiterate that he's running for re-election, and he thinks that by paying back the money, the matter is "completely behind" him. But remarkably, he's still maintaining he did nothing wrong, saying he believes the money his parents gave him was already his in the first place. That's exactly the story he told the FEC, which investigated the matter and concluded Guinta's claims were bunk.
Sometimes politicians can brazen out a scandal by casting aspersions on their accusers and portraying themselves as victims of an unfair system out to get them, like a Marion Barry or a Mike Grimm. But contrition is usually the smarter approach, so Guinta's stubborn refusal to admit wrongdoing and accept responsibility is likely to hurt him, either in the GOP primary or, if he survives that challenge, the general election.
● NY-03: Another Republican has formed an exploratory committee for this open Long Island swing seat. This time it's Brookville Village Mayor Daniel Serota, who said on Wednesday that he expects to decide in the next 10 days. Brookville has only about 3,500 residents, but Serota heads a big development company that's part of his family's large real estate empire, so he may have a lot of money to burn.
A number of other Republicans have formed exploratory committees or filed with the FEC but no one, except little-known former Marine David Gurfein, has kicked off a bid to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Steve Israel. State Sen. Jack Martins' campaign spokesman insists that the senator "is running for Congress," but Martins himself has yet to announce or even throw up a website.
State Republicans want Martins to run for re-election to give them a better shot to hold his competitive Senate seat, and it's possible that his delay is an attempt to negotiate some favorable deal to get him to stay. Of course, maybe Martins has actually decided to run but isn't exactly ready to gear up into campaign mode. Assemblyman Chad Lupinacci and Suffolk County Legislator Rob Trotta have also filed with the FEC but haven't entered the race yet.
On the Democratic side, three candidates have declared that they're in. Suffolk County Legislator Steve Stern recently hired some of Israel's former campaign staffers, including his longtime fundraiser. A little while ago, The Island Now reported that Israel had helped another candidate, North Hempstead Councilwoman Anna Kaplan, prepare for a campaign even before he announced he would retire. Israel's camp denied it off-the-record and Stern's hires at least indicate that Israel's allies weren't onboard with Kaplan. Israel himself had some nice words for Stern: While he hasn't endorsed anyone, he told Newsday that he's "impressed Steve Stern quickly approached folks who have worked with me since my first days in Congress."
Besides Kaplan and Stern, ex-North Hempstead Supervisor (the equivalent of mayor) Jon Kaiman is in, while lobbyist Brad Gerstman and ex-Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi have formed exploratory committees. A number of other Democrats have expressed interest, but philanthropist Laurie Scheinman has ruled out a run.
● NY-22: While Oneida County Executive Anthony Picente flirted with a bid for the GOP nod in this open swing seat, he's announced he won't go for it. Neither party has managed to attract a particular formidable candidate yet: On the GOP side, conservative Assemblywoman Claudia Tenney and ex-Broome County Legislator George Phillips, who has lost two previous congressional bids, are in. On the Democratic side, self-described conservative David Gordon is running. Both parties have some other options in this upstate district though.
● PA-02: Yeah, Democratic Rep. Chaka Fattah is under indictment for alleged corruption. And sure, his campaign is almost penniless. And yes, a judge had to tell his defense team that they couldn't withdraw from the case even though Fattah wasn't paying them. But his re-election campaign in this safely blue seat isn't doomed: The local United Steelworkers Union and Hospital Workers Union, which Newsworks describes as major unions, both backed him in recent days. Fattah's main opponent in the primary for this safely blue seat looks like state Rep. Dwight Evans, who recently released a poll giving himself a 37-21 lead.
● PA-06: While national Democrats have soured on businessman Mike Parrish, who has had trouble raising money, local Democratic groups seem to like him just fine: In recent days, Parrish won endorsements from the Chester and Montgomery County Democratic parties. Parrish faces 25-year old financial manager Lindy Li, who earned the support of two unions and a few Democratic House members (most notably, local power player Bob Brady). Li, who was running in the neighboring 7th District until a few weeks ago, has been a much better fundraiser than Parrish, though she hasn't brought in anything spectacular.
Republican freshman Ryan Costello is a longshot Democratic target. While Romney only carried this seat 51-48, suburban Philadelphia is still quite friendly to Republicans downballot and Costello is a tough candidate. But this is one of those seats that could be competitive if there's a blue wave, and Democrats need to be prepared just in case.
● WI-08: On Saturday evening, GOP Rep. Reid Ribble announced that he would not seek a fourth term. Romney and Republican Senate candidate Tommy Thompson only carried this Green Bay-area seat 51-48 and 50-47 respectively while they were losing statewide in 2012, and Obama took it 54-45 in 2008. While Democrats weren't making any moves to target Ribble, Team Blue will be taking a serious look at this district now that he's gone.
Republicans control most of the region's legislative seats, and there are several GOP politicians who might be interested in running to succeed Ribble. Democrats do hold a few districts around Green Bay and Appleton and both cities lean blue, so there is a Democratic bench here. Either party could also go with a wealthy outsider: Neither Ribble nor the Democrat he unseated in 2010, physician Steve Kagen, held elected office before they won here. The filing deadline for the August primary is June 1, so it may take a little while for things to take shape here.
It's pretty unusual to see congressmen call it quits after just three terms, but Ribble is the eighth Republican member of the oversized class of 2010 to announce his retirement so far this cycle (a few others are seeking another office). Pennsylvania's Mike Fitzpatrick seems like a true believer in term limits, while Michigan's Dan Benishek faced a tough general election and New York's Richard Hanna was in for a competitive primary. However, Florida's Richard Nugent, New York's Chris Gibson, Virginia's Scott Rigell and Robert Hurt, and Ribble all appeared to be entrenched. It's not hard to explain this exodus though: As one Hill source recently told Nathan Gonzales, "Being in Congress sucks, man." Ribble's departure tragically also means that the number of roofing contractors in the House will likely drop to zero.
Mayoral:
● Los Angeles, CA Mayor: Mayor Eric Garcetti has been mentioned as a potential Democratic statewide candidate, but he needs to win re-election next year first. Garcetti should be favored, but he's already attracted one non-Some Dude foe. Mitchell Schwartz, who ran Obama's primary and general election campaigns in California, has announced that he'll run, arguing that the city's quality-of-life is declining under Garcetti. Steve Barr, who founded a high-profile chain of local charter schools, is also mulling a bid.
This will be the last time Los Angeles will elect a mayor in an odd-number year. In 2015, voters decided to move city elections to midterm cycles starting in 2022 and whoever wins in 2017 will serve a special five-and-a-half year term.
Grab Bag:
● Iowa Caucus: The first in the nation presidential caucus is tonight, and Daily Kos will be liveblogging both parties' contests! Each caucus begins at 8 PM ET and we'll begin our liveblog at Daily Kos Elections then; we'll also be live tweeting from our Daily Kos Elections account. Join us this evening for what will be a historic night!
● WI-??: As the original Politico band breaks up, one founding member sounds like he wants to leave in order to spend less time with his family. CEO Jim VandeHei reportedly has said he's interested in returning home to Wisconsin to run for office, which just raises sooo many questions. Reader Tony Weiss writes in and has the hilarious gist of it:
I don't know what VandeHei considers his political party to be (No Labels?), what office he expects to run for (I'm guessing a man of his ego and ambition isn't aiming for school board or secretary of state), or what kind of political or donor base he expects to have (the Playbook advertisers?), but if he's serious, it should be fun to see how his ultra-inside-the-Beltway worldview appeals to the people of Wisconsin.
Exactly. VandeHei's not parting ways with Politico until after this year's elections, so we'll have to wait until next cycle to see how this experiment pans out, but we're looking forward to it.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.